LTD set and forget (if you wish)
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Yeah, that's why it's not in the strategy.
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This post is deleted!
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From your mass data set @Stuart-Capstick , does Spain tend to perform poorly for this?
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Yes. I hope other people reading this realise how unusual those results were.
Oh 100%, EXTREMELY out of the ordinary. Suppose it had to happen one day, fingers crossed we won't see it again for a long time
I did some looking at my records, and having been running this since mid Jan, the Away 2.0's had 20% selections draw whereas the Away 2.2's had 68%! Additionally, the Away 2.0's had 5 times more selections produced. Think you made a good decision to put those on hold for the time being.
For clarity, I didn't base the above on which filter the game come up on, but purely the actual away odds, so if a game came up on the Away 2.2 but had away odds of 1.6 for example, it would fall under that 20%. Hope that makes sense?
Going to follow your lead Stuart and set them all under one filter for
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Yes. I hope other people reading this realise how unusual those results were.
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Been updating my spreadsheets today!... man, what was with the 2-2 scoreline this weekend
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Well, Saturday and Sunday certainly showed us that there is potential for backing the draw after a team takes the lead
If I could get 41% on backing the draw, it would be a huge increase in returns. Hope it keeps going well for you.
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@stuart-capstick thats a LOT more data than mine
37% is good for that much data. Hopefully mine will be at least that good.I had a similar thought but want to nail the basic idea first. Should get some huge returns on a game like that!
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Both are around 37% with data going back 4 years or so.
My latest idea is to look at getting in when one team takes the lead, pushing the draw price right up, and letting it run.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
If you draw strategy stays around 40% or over, I'll be hailing you as a genius. Mine is around 30 odd percent, which is profitable but not going to allow me to retire.
Dont jinx it
I really hope it does stay there, although I do have some potential to look at filter tweaks if it drops off. Fairly early days yet though. I figured on about 33% as a minimum to consider it worth pursuing.How long has yours been going whilst getting the 30%?
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@matt-wood said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick Ahhhh yes that makes sense as well. Obvious when someone with a better brain points it out
Not so crap, you did get a draw out of the mighty mighty Spurs
Spurs, at least, don't stink up the Premier League with the kind of football you see in Junior school matches.
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If you draw strategy stays around 40% or over, I'll be hailing you as a genius. Mine is around 30 odd percent, which is profitable but not going to allow me to retire.
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@stuart-capstick Ahhhh yes that makes sense as well. Obvious when someone with a better brain points it out
Not so crap, you did get a draw out of the mighty mighty Spurs
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Again, that also makes sense. The most common score after 1-0 is 1-1. So, if your draw strat is based on low scoring teams, it will hit upon some of these strong away teams ( who are likely to go 1-1 after conceding a goal). Additionally, you've probably noticed that better teams often score a late goal to draw when losing (see Roma, Juve) or even crap home teams desperate for points get late goals (Newcastle).
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@stuart-capstick Makes sense. Just surprised me. My draw strat works along the lines of total mins spent drawing and under a certain amount of goals.
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Actually, it isn't that odd if you think about it.
If your draw strategy works along the lines of an expected draw after X games without a draw, you may well expect some of the games to match this strategy (away teams under 2 are strong for a particular league and probably win most games).
My draw strategy often throws up games that some LTD strategies also throw up.
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@Stuart-Capstick Its curious the last few days as Im trying to get a draw filter going, currently pretty decent sr of 41.07%. Something that struck me this weekend is that 3 games that came up on this filter also came up on my draw filter. Need to look into any similarities between the games but I found it really odd that such contradicting strategies should throw out the same games. Might just be my inexperience showing though
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Yes brutal couple of days indeed, BUT, this strat is gold and whilst it hurts now, it’ll come back round in no time at all! I’ve yet to change my filter to reflect the U2.2 odds being removed by Stu, gonna take a good look at the spreadsheet tomorrow on this note!
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Oh Jesus. Sorry to hear that, Eamonn.
If it's any consolation (I doubt it, but this is true) it seems to be a rule of the universe that increasing the stakes always leads to a losing day. I think that has happened to us all.
TRUE! Its the unwritten rule lol
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April 5th
Farense Braga
Moreirense Sporting Lisbon
