LTD set and forget (if you wish)
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@richard-latimer said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
The prices you quote in the 'sweet spot', are they from bet365 then? I like to look at oddsportal.com to get the ave bookie price. Wonder if this would work too.
From the information you posted the yield must be sky high at the lowest draw price. Wonder if that would be worth doing alone considering more than half the profit comes from just those odds.
And I notice you didn't include between 4.51-7.49, is this because profit is negligible or even just much much lower?
The full table of odds and profits:
A perfect illustration of how strike rate is not the crucial factor in any system.
The money range is, as you can see, between 3.5-5.5. I'm not too hung up about delineations within that range, as draw odds can fluctuate anywhere within those parameters. I've not really noticed that there is an optimum time as regards placing the lay bet, either. There probably is, but I simply wanted an uncomplicated set and forget.
Really, if you want to drill down, you could argue the best range is 5.01-5.5. The expected win rate would be between 80 and 81.8%. This strategy gives you 87%.
I'd also argue that the low profit from the 7.01-7.5 isn't really meaningful as the number of games is far too low to say anything about its significance (well, you could, but mathematically, it would be bollocks). I don't even consider anything in terms of edge/significance until there are at least a few hundred games. Even so, you may want to avoid games with those draw odds.Re: odds
The data I scraped used odds from a variety of bookmakers. I just took the max bet365 odds. I assumed that this would be closest to betfair. Turns out that on occasion, they are higher than betfair; on other occasions, they are lower. I imagine it balances out. -
The prices you quote in the 'sweet spot', are they from bet365 then? I like to look at oddsportal.com to get the ave bookie price. Wonder if this would work too.
From the information you posted the yield must be sky high at the lowest draw price. Wonder if that would be worth doing alone considering more than half the profit comes from just those odds.
And I notice you didn't include between 4.51-7.49, is this because profit is negligible or even just much much lower?
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
15th Jan: one potential
Montpellier Monaco France Ligue 1 2000
Monitoring this one as Monaco's price was below 2 last night but is just above 2 now.
Montpellier Monaco 2-3
0.98 pts
cracking run at the moment!
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Jan 16th
Ross County Aberdeen Scot Prem 1500
Pacos Ferreira Braga Portugal Primeira 1530
Fulham Chelsea Eng Prem 1730
Angers PSG France Ligue 1 2030 -
@daniel-cooper Anything over 3 is too steep for my bank at the moment, but as @Stuart-Capstick pointed out a while back, you could always back Home, Away on the double chance
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Yeah, pretty much.
Just remember: you won't win every time, so make sure your bank is able to withstand a downturn. Just look at the monthly patterns. You have to think of this one as a long term system, not by weekend, or even month, but quarterly or annually.
Thanks for this Stuart! Very eye opening, thank you. Generally, what LTD prices are people willing to accept?
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Yeah, pretty much.
Just remember: you won't win every time, so make sure your bank is able to withstand a downturn. Just look at the monthly patterns. You have to think of this one as a long term system, not by weekend, or even month, but quarterly or annually.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Hi Daniel,
Honestly, this is simplicity itself really. Just use this filter, below, with the leagues in the top post selected
and if a game comes up on the filter, LTD at kick off; over time = profit? Sounds pretty good!
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Hi Daniel,
Honestly, this is simplicity itself really. Just use this filter, below, with the leagues in the top post selected
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
15th Jan: one potential
Montpellier Monaco France Ligue 1 2000
Monitoring this one as Monaco's price was below 2 last night but is just above 2 now.
Montpellier Monaco 2-3
0.98 pts
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I need to dedicate a good few hours this weekend to reading the thread, the main post, spreadsheet etc, keen to get my head around the ins and outs of this - the brain has been off trading for a couple of weeks! Is there a TL;DR or Stuarts Approach for Dummies at all?
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@keith-anderson
Probably for most leagues, it will be 3.51-4 or thereabouts. Mathematically, that would make the most sense.
But, there may be some inefficiencies we can take advantage of.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@keith-anderson
Hi Keith,
There is:
3.5- 4 (v.good guess from you) 227 PTS from 1791 games.
Next best: 4.51-5 66pts from 638 games
Then: 4.01- 4.5 65 PTS from 1072 games.
Finally, LTD over 7.5 brings you 60.58 PTS from 135 games (sometimes laying WAY over 7.5, to a maximum of 23).
I think the sweet spot would be the same for most leagues.
This is just guess work. I’ve loads of theories, but that’s where it ends. I never test them out.
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@keith-anderson
Next part of the plan is start looking at league specific sweet spots.
Will be back soon.
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@keith-anderson
Hi Keith,
There is:
3.5- 4 (v.good guess from you) 227 PTS from 1791 games.
Next best: 4.51-5 66pts from 638 games
Then: 4.01- 4.5 65 PTS from 1072 games.
Finally, LTD over 7.5 brings you 60.58 PTS from 135 games (sometimes laying WAY over 7.5, to a maximum of 23).
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Well done @Stuart-Capstick and thanks for sharing!
There must be a sweet spot with the lay odds? Like 3.55 - 4.0? Would probably differ between leagues though. Just thinking out loud!
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Playing around a little with the odds, I've found that the strategy is still profitable (or even more so) for the following leagues, if the away price is 2.2 or lower:
Eng Prem
France Ligue 1
Israel Ligat ha'Al
Russia Prem League
Slovakia Fortuna liga
Serbia Super Liga
Turkey Super Liga
Europa League -
@matt-wood said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Morning Stuart. Am tracking this cracking little filter for myself until the bank grows a bit
Do you think it would be worth setting up the filter with away odds of 2.02 and monitoring them to see if they drop before KO?
Great minds think alike....
I'm in the process of working out which leagues are still profitable even when the away team has odds above 2.
Will post what I find later today. -
15th Jan: one potential
Montpellier Monaco France Ligue 1 2000
Monitoring this one as Monaco's price was below 2 last night but is just above 2 now.
