LTD set and forget (if you wish)
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They may but Dinamo will be going for it, knowing that they don't need to worry about away goals.
We may be guilty of overcomplicating this.
LTD works because of poor pricing of the draw. In the Europa League (and likely the Conference League) teams are of very different standards.I'd imagine it's easier to price the draw for say, Man City Vs PSG than between Arsenal (can't recall if Arsenal qualifies) and Jablonec (or whoever qualifies from the Czech league). The differences between 4th place teams in say England and Czech Republic are likely to be larger than between the first placed teams in those leagues. Or, the differences are harder to judge, meaning the prices are more likely to be wrong.
That's why this doesn't really work with Champions League but does with the Europa League. -
"...If they win at home, Dinamo are looking to win. Aberdeen doesn't need to be as cautious since the away goals rule has gone."
In this situation might Aberdeen decide to park the bus?
I agree though it all depends really on the teams involved how they play, lineups and other influencing factors.
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@chris-osborne
I see your point.
But, let's imagine it's Aberdeen Vs Dinamo Brest (with Aberdeen as favourites).
If Aberdeen draw the first leg at home, they are looking to win the away leg.
If they win at home, Dinamo are looking to win. Aberdeen doesn't need to be as cautious since the away goals rule has gone.If Aberdeen are playing away first, they don't really gain as much from an away (score) draw, so may be more attacking. Dinamo aren't as worried about the away goal and do have more incentive to attack.
Which is a very long-winded way of saying "It depends".
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@stuart-capstick is this first legs only as a draw is likely to suit one of the teams in the 2nd leg?
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Hi Matt. I can't see any reason not to trade the qualifiers. In fact, now that the away goal rule has gone, it may mean teams don't settle for the draw.
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Awesome, cheers Stuart. Will amend my mirror filter to reflect this tomorrow
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Leagues changed in the header post. Ukraine and Qatar added.
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Just needed to check up on Uruguay- it doesn't make the cut.
So: Paraguay and Chile added, Japan 1 removed, Denmark Super and Division 1 in.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
I've been looking at the data (including all the 2021 material and other leagues). The winter leagues all look solid.
I'll be adding Chile and Paraguay to the list.
J1 is a goner.
Uruguay, Denmark (both Superliga and Division 1) may also get added.
Some people have asked about the Netherlands. Great figures, but very unlikely that we'd get matched.Two selections yesterday
Grorud Alesund (1-2)
Rentistas Liverpool Montevideo (2-1)- Uruguay, but jury is still out in this league.When you likely to put these into action?
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I've been looking at the data (including all the 2021 material and other leagues). The winter leagues all look solid.
I'll be adding Chile and Paraguay to the list.
J1 is a goner.
Uruguay, Denmark (both Superliga and Division 1) may also get added.
Some people have asked about the Netherlands. Great figures, but very unlikely that we'd get matched.Two selections yesterday
Grorud Alesund (1-2)
Rentistas Liverpool Montevideo (2-1)- Uruguay, but jury is still out in this league. -
I've paused this as results are taking a downturn. Yesterday, there were three qualifiers (Haka in Finland, Kyoto and Jubilo in Japan 2) with two winners and one loser. Probably at best about 0.5 to 1 pt down on the day.
I think the maximum drawdown on this is about 28 points. So, I've stopped at at about half way (this strategy is around 13 or so points down this month).
Just a question of waiting to see if and when it picks up.
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July 10th
Longford Drogheda
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@stuart-capstick always a nightmare when favs get a red isn't it.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
July 4th: Happy Independence Day to any American followers.
Vitebsk BATE 0-0 Red card for BATE. Twats.
Dinamo Brest Rukh Brest1-1 One of those games. Nothing to moan about here.-6.5 pts
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July 4th: Happy Independence Day to any American followers.
Vitebsk BATE
Dinamo Brest Rukh Brest -
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July 3rd
Longford Sligo
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
June 2nd
All three games in Lithuania this afternoon qualify.
Riteriai Zalgiris 0-0
Banga Suduva 0-2
Nevezis Kauno Zalgiris 1-1I'm always wary of several games from the same league.
But, Lithuania has underperformed thus far and is due a correction.
May be best to wait until half time. I'm queueing each to lay at 4.9At your own peril.
F*****g. Hell.
-7 pts.
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June 2nd
All three games in Lithuania this afternoon qualify.
Riteriai Zalgiris
Banga Suduva
Nevezis Kauno ZalgirisI'm always wary of several games from the same league.
But, Lithuania has underperformed thus far and is due a correction.
May be best to wait until half time. I'm queueing each to lay at 4.9At your own peril.
