LTD set and forget (if you wish)
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April 23rd
Finn Harps St Patrick's
Riterai Zalgiris (Lithuania) -
@darri
Thanks for taking the time to provide this response, Darri.
My "tantrums" after a losing day are pretty much just that: like the tantrum of a little kid who doesn't get his own way. They are meant to be comic relief - I'm just not really that funny (or maybe Keith disagrees
).This is the way to approach trading- by all means mouth off when someone equalises in the last second, misses a penalty or you get a 2-2 (supposedly one of the rarest scorelines), but don't dwell on it. In the same way, after a good day, by all means be pleased but don't believe you are a Trading God.
Anyway, enough of my nonsense:
Roma Atalanta 1-1
Portimonense Benfica 1-5
-2.22 pts -
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
I put this up on here a while back:
Just having a catch up to see how this has been doing. I remembered seeing this post a while back. Still think it is, especially after a losing day, a handsome reminder of the long term play here. I havent yet started to trade these myself yet, always hesitant to trade strategies i havent made myself, but i have recommended this a few times. Dont feel the need to have to DEFEND yourself mate when things dont work. The play here is taking advantage of inefficient pricing. There are ways to optimise for sure, like you have in the header, motivation (celtic and rangers yesterday no motivation), team news, getting in at HT seeing inplay stats etc. Its not about the individual games merits. But the beauty of this is you can avoid all that, saving those things for your main inplay strategies and still be profitable which is why its an ideal set and forget strategy, the issue is because of the long term play people are over reliant on it as their main strategy now, which if it is then the tweaks suggested by stuart will be more helpful. For me that table above is key and probably gets lost at times, its shows people the ranges they might prefer and what the deemed sweet spot is. I fully know how annoying it is when you post a losing day and knowing people have lost money from your picks, but we post these cause we know they are long term profitable and can back it up, giving people a good ticking bank. We also have to show that its all part of trading, we win/lose but long term win enough to profit well, that table proves it.
Im annoyed i celebrated that griffiths goal now
celtic fan living in aberdeen i needed that to avoid getting banter thrown at me, but coming on here to see a loss not so much, balances out over the season tho 
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@mark-maguire said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick Thanks mate but nothing unfortunate about it.. people like you who've done all the work and are brave enough to share win or lose deserve thanks and respect for the part they play in educating people like me so thanks again mate
100 percent agree cheers @Stuart-Capstick
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@stuart-capstick Thanks mate but nothing unfortunate about it.. people like you who've done all the work and are brave enough to share win or lose deserve thanks and respect for the part they play in educating people like me so thanks again mate
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Jesus, that's unfortunate. Seems like there is a "rites of passage" for every trader:
- If you raise stakes, you will hit a losing streak.
- If you see something working well or you are paper trading it, the minute you stake money it hits a losing period/loss
- You give up on something and it will have an upturn.
Don't worry, Mark. Just stick to the guidelines on staking.
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@mark-maguire said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick I might owe you and everyone else an apology. I've been really impressed with what you do, watching the ups and downs over the last few months and understand the fact that its a long term strategy and it works.. so I thought I'd dabble last night to do it alongside my filters.. so I may be responsible for the sods law factor after a great few days for you.. sorry everyone .. and please keep sharing Stuart
Sorry to hear last night was your first night! It’ll pick back up, always does
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@stuart-capstick I might owe you and everyone else an apology. I've been really impressed with what you do, watching the ups and downs over the last few months and understand the fact that its a long term strategy and it works.. so I thought I'd dabble last night to do it alongside my filters.. so I may be responsible for the sods law factor after a great few days for you.. sorry everyone .. and please keep sharing Stuart
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@keith-anderson
I knew you would!
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I've said this before, but:
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Every system should have its own bank. If you have a bank of £1,000 and you are following 2 systems, each system has a bank of £500.
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Divide your bank into 100 points. In the example above, each point is £5.
Only stake to win either one point (£5) or have a liability of one point (your win will be lower but only risking £5). -
Systems have swings. We had two days where everything won. Yesterday we had 4 draws in 8 games.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
April 21st
Villa Man City 1-2
Spezia Inter 1-1****TWO disallowed goals for Inter
St Johnstone Rangers 1-1 Bluenose bastards allowed a 94th min equaliser
Aberdeen Celtic 1-1 Celtic, who I support, decided to equalise-arseholes
Tochigi Albirex Niigata 2-2 Apparently, a rare scoreline...unless you are me..
Tokyo Verdy Kyoto Sanga 0-2
Stuttgart Wolfsburg 1-3
Hegelmann Kaunas 2-3My pathetic whingeing aside, I win more than I lose with this. End of.
-6.7 pts today
I found this funny! Sorry! Not the losses obviously!
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Well I had some friends around last night ( no more than 6 !!!) and was telling them about how I has stated trading to keep my self busy and make some money on the side. Told them about the LTD and how its works and how often it produces....woke up this morning to the last night results..
not sure what I will tell them today....What a shocker....then again its a long game and now I have been doing this since Jan the loses don't seem to be as important due to the systems and the advice I get on this site. Onwards and upwards. -
@stuart-capstick Fair enough, makes sense
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@lee-woodman
May is usually the worst performing month. That may be because of the reasons you mention allied to the fact that the Summer Leagues are still getting into their groove.
Certain leagues I'd avoid: Serie B (renowned for end of season draws)
and those where there is a championship/relegation group split. That set up just seems to send a message to teams out of contention or danger that there really is nothing to play for. -
@stuart-capstick As you get towards the end of the season do you look to avoid games where a draw suits both teams or do you just continue to trade as normal?
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Re: Chinese Super League
I got message asking about whether or not this league can be included.
This is a very profitable league for in-play trading and there are very few draws, but:
- The league format has changed massively
- Teams all play in neutral venues
- Teams "disappear" . For example, last season's champions dissolved over night.
- The odds seem to be made up by getting a child to pick random numbers.
Don't get me wrong, it's a great league to trade: lots of FHG, nearly always a SHG and hardly any 0-0s. But, in terms of an odds based strategy, at the moment, it's a no go.
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@james-rome said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
April 21st
Villa Man City 1-2
Spezia Inter 1-1****TWO disallowed goals for Inter
St Johnstone Rangers 1-1 Bluenose bastards allowed a 94th min equaliser
Aberdeen Celtic 1-1 Celtic, who I support, decided to equalise-arseholes
Tochigi Albirex Niigata 2-2 Apparently, a rare scoreline...unless you are me..
Tokyo Verdy Kyoto Sanga 0-2
Stuttgart Wolfsburg 1-3
Hegelmann Kaunas 2-3My pathetic whingeing aside, I win more than I lose with this. End of.
-6.7 pts today
Today was unlucky 3 games had 90+ min goals
Yep and on other days we've had winners in the 98th minute.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
April 21st
Villa Man City 1-2
Spezia Inter 1-1****TWO disallowed goals for Inter
St Johnstone Rangers 1-1 Bluenose bastards allowed a 94th min equaliser
Aberdeen Celtic 1-1 Celtic, who I support, decided to equalise-arseholes
Tochigi Albirex Niigata 2-2 Apparently, a rare scoreline...unless you are me..
Tokyo Verdy Kyoto Sanga 0-2
Stuttgart Wolfsburg 1-3
Hegelmann Kaunas 2-3My pathetic whingeing aside, I win more than I lose with this. End of.
-6.7 pts today
Today was unlucky 3 games had 90+ min goals
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
April 21st
Villa Man City 1-2
Spezia Inter 1-1****TWO disallowed goals for Inter
St Johnstone Rangers 1-1 Bluenose bastards allowed a 94th min equaliser
Aberdeen Celtic 1-1 Celtic, who I support, decided to equalise-arseholes
Tochigi Albirex Niigata 2-2 Apparently, a rare scoreline...unless you are me..
Tokyo Verdy Kyoto Sanga 0-2
Stuttgart Wolfsburg 1-3
Hegelmann Kaunas 2-3My pathetic whingeing aside, I win more than I lose with this. End of.
-6.7 pts today
Unlucky guys. Good days and bad days! On to tomorrow
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April 22nd
Roma Atalanta
Portimonense Benfica
