LTD set and forget (if you wish)
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@matt-wood said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@daniel-cooper yep,
Hey Matt! I think I read you guys discussing this earlier, but I can't find it now - any reason that the Wolfsburg game missed @Stuart-Capstick 's list he posted on the thread earlier? Perhaps the Away odds flunctuated ever so slightly?
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Thanks @Stuart-Capstick and @Matt-Wood !!!
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@daniel-cooper yep,
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@daniel-cooper said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Dumb question, where do I find the UEFA on the filter league selection?
Also, alot of the leagues above say up to 2.2 (presumably for Away odds) - worth setting the filter to capture up to 2.2 then manually filtering those that are above 2 that shouldn't be, as per above list? Sorry, stupid questions!
Set up two filters: one for the under 2, the other for the under 2.2 leagues.
BTC has nothing for UEFA Games. The sites I got the data from did.
I just check manually on Betfair for Europa League games. -
No. I only include leagues that are profitable. Eng Champ isn't for this strategy.
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@richard-latimer said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@daniel-cooper said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@Richard-Latimer Do you have the software run offs for the 4 matches today? I've only just set the filter up myself but would like to record those on it if poss!
I've not set the filter up, sorry
Ah no worries! Anyone else? @Matt-Wood ?
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@daniel-cooper said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@Richard-Latimer Do you have the software run offs for the 4 matches today? I've only just set the filter up myself but would like to record those on it if poss!
I've not set the filter up, sorry
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer Do you have the software run offs for the 4 matches today? I've only just set the filter up myself but would like to record those on it if poss!
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Dumb question, where do I find the UEFA on the filter league selection?
Also, alot of the leagues above say up to 2.2 (presumably for Away odds) - worth setting the filter to capture up to 2.2 then manually filtering those that are above 2 that shouldn't be, as per above list? Sorry, stupid questions!
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@Stuart-Capstick does the Eng Championship not perform as well on this then?
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@richard-latimer said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@richard-latimer said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Just went back and did what I wanted to do manually. I know small numbers and all that but just from what you have posted in this thread, taking only ave book price of 3.5-5.5 gives the following very impressive results. An incredibly good month or basis for celebration haha!!??
35 wins (would have been 36 but last nights in France narrowly missed by having draw odds of 3.48)
4 lossesPossibly more as I only added the 2.2 qualification very recently.
I must stress, though, this strategy WILL have downturns. Largest losing month is around 17 points. Your bank (and your fortitude) has to be able to withstand those.
Of course. Everything does. Taking out the odds of 5.5-6.5 happily removes both the Liverpool and PSG dud though. Risk vs reward isn't it.
Agreed.
I think we are talking at cross purposes. My concern is that people look at this, try it, win a few, then start upping the stakes and it takes an inevitable downturn.
For example, here is the graph for the currently least profitable prices: 5.5-6.5
Looks like this followed a predictable pattern, then recently started to take an upturn.
My point is that someone, who started looking at this from game 240 onwards could end reading anything into it. The upturn only covers about 70 games.
Is this the start of a new upward trend for these odds ranges? Is it a fluke? No idea. Need a lot more data.I'm just saying you can interpret small datasets in so many ways. I'm not criticising anyone, either. Just reminding people of what they already probably know, but we all can get side-tracked by randomness.
Yeah, I understand what you're saying. Seen it happen many times. but no, I'm not advocating people go crazy. It's just that from your years of data it really would seem the optimal odds range is 3.5-5.5......and if what we've seen in December/Jan so far then ave book price can be used just as well as bet365 prices.
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@richard-latimer said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@richard-latimer said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Just went back and did what I wanted to do manually. I know small numbers and all that but just from what you have posted in this thread, taking only ave book price of 3.5-5.5 gives the following very impressive results. An incredibly good month or basis for celebration haha!!??
35 wins (would have been 36 but last nights in France narrowly missed by having draw odds of 3.48)
4 lossesPossibly more as I only added the 2.2 qualification very recently.
I must stress, though, this strategy WILL have downturns. Largest losing month is around 17 points. Your bank (and your fortitude) has to be able to withstand those.
Of course. Everything does. Taking out the odds of 5.5-6.5 happily removes both the Liverpool and PSG dud though. Risk vs reward isn't it.
Agreed.
I think we are talking at cross purposes. My concern is that people look at this, try it, win a few, then start upping the stakes and it takes an inevitable downturn.
For example, here is the graph for the currently least profitable prices: 5.5-6.5
Looks like this followed a predictable pattern, then recently started to take an upturn.
My point is that someone, who started looking at this from game 240 onwards could end reading anything into it. The upturn only covers about 70 games.
Is this the start of a new upward trend for these odds ranges? Is it a fluke? No idea. Need a lot more data.I'm just saying you can interpret small datasets in so many ways. I'm not criticising anyone, either. Just reminding people of what they already probably know, but we all can get side-tracked by randomness.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@richard-latimer said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Just went back and did what I wanted to do manually. I know small numbers and all that but just from what you have posted in this thread, taking only ave book price of 3.5-5.5 gives the following very impressive results. An incredibly good month or basis for celebration haha!!??
35 wins (would have been 36 but last nights in France narrowly missed by having draw odds of 3.48)
4 lossesPossibly more as I only added the 2.2 qualification very recently.
I must stress, though, this strategy WILL have downturns. Largest losing month is around 17 points. Your bank (and your fortitude) has to be able to withstand those.
Of course. Everything does. Taking out the odds of 5.5-6.5 happily removes both the Liverpool and PSG dud though. Risk vs reward isn't it.
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@richard-latimer said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Just went back and did what I wanted to do manually. I know small numbers and all that but just from what you have posted in this thread, taking only ave book price of 3.5-5.5 gives the following very impressive results. An incredibly good month or basis for celebration haha!!??
35 wins (would have been 36 but last nights in France narrowly missed by having draw odds of 3.48)
4 lossesPossibly more as I only added the 2.2 qualification very recently.
I must stress, though, this strategy WILL have downturns. Largest losing month is around 17 points. Your bank (and your fortitude) has to be able to withstand those.
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@stuart-capstick I second Richard's comment - very interesting stats, Stuart
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Just went back and did what I wanted to do manually. I know small numbers and all that but just from what you have posted in this thread, taking only ave book price of 3.5-5.5 gives the following very impressive results. An incredibly good month or basis for celebration haha!!??
35 wins (would have been 36 but last nights in France narrowly missed by having draw odds of 3.48)
4 losses -
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
No I haven't been updating it on here.
I hate google sheets, so I just use my own excel sheet. You could just use the filter selections and add them to the sheet on here.
I'm just tryig to analyse the selections you've put up so far, I know it's a small number but all the same, it's what I do haha!
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No I haven't been updating it on here.
I hate google sheets, so I just use my own excel sheet. You could just use the filter selections and add them to the sheet on here.
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Is your sheet up to date as I'm sure I managed to open it and it only went up to 20/12?
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This is really interesting. Thanks.
