LTD set and forget (if you wish)
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9th Jan
Reggiana Cittadella 1300
Benevento Atalanta 1400
Schalke Hoffenheim 1430
Dijon Marseilles 2000
Nimes Lille 2000On the filter it claims there is a game Altrincham Sutton. However, every exchange and bookmaker has Sutton, the favourites, at home.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Very busy at the moment, so tomorrow's selections:
Dunkerque Troyes 1900 France 2
B. M'gladbach B. Munich 1945 Bundesliga
Les francais m'ont laisse tombe ce soir...
How in the name of all that is holy there wasn't a goal in the Dunkerque game i'll never know...
Dunkerque Troyes 0-0 -2.55
B M'gladbach B Munich 3-2 0.98
Nacional Sporting Lisbon 0-2 0.98
Famalicao Porto 1-4 0.980.39 pts
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I can't really give a definitive answer, Matt. Sometimes, the draw odds are lower nearer kick off, sometimes higher.
For example, the Israel game: another member pointed out that the favourite had drifted out to 2.32 at kick-off, whereas the evening before they were at 1.98.
But, generally, as long as they don't jump out by a huge quantity, I'm quite relaxed. I think it balances out. Sometimes you get on for a price over the filter, sometimes under. -
I just had the draw odds on there as originally, I had an idea about draw odds. I now just have it there as an indication of my risk.
UEFA: the data I have is taken from a number of places. I looked at ECL and UEFA thinking that teams had an incentive to not draw (until the dead rubbers or maybe the knock out stages). The Europa League is made of teams of very different levels- a far greater ability difference than the ECL; less likely to have draws.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
The filter is just as I posted
Away equal to or less than 2
The leagues are those in the intro post.
Where you may get different matches to me is, because it is odds based, it depends when you search.
For those teams around 2, at any one time you search their price may be above 2 and do not show in the filter.
This happened the other day with the Israeli game.
Today, the Lisbon game won't appear on the filter because it was scheduled yesterday (called off due to bad weather).Apart from those factors, I can't see why you wouldn't get the same lists as I do.
Ah thanks Stuart, I've got Draw odds equal to or less than 15 as well. have you removed them? how did you get the UEFA games in the filter, I couldn't find them.
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The filter is just as I posted
Away equal to or less than 2
The leagues are those in the intro post.
Where you may get different matches to me is, because it is odds based, it depends when you search.
For those teams around 2, at any one time you search their price may be above 2 and do not show in the filter.
This happened the other day with the Israeli game.
Today, the Lisbon game won't appear on the filter because it was scheduled yesterday (called off due to bad weather).Apart from those factors, I can't see why you wouldn't get the same lists as I do.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Instead of doing what I should be doing at work, I was thinking about the filter(I call it "creative daydreaming"). Looking back, I can see no reason to exclude the Primeira Liga of Portugal.
Including it would have added 30 points, longest losing run is 3.
So, my filter now includes that, meaning today's selections also have:National Sporting Lisbon
Famalicao PortoThanks Stuart.
Ive tried to copy your filter but think im missing something. Could you export the filter?
Thanks bud
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Instead of doing what I should be doing at work, I was thinking about the filter(I call it "creative daydreaming"). Looking back, I can see no reason to exclude the Primeira Liga of Portugal.
Including it would have added 30 points, longest losing run is 3.
So, my filter now includes that, meaning today's selections also have:National Sporting Lisbon
Famalicao Porto -
Very busy at the moment, so tomorrow's selections:
Dunkerque Troyes 1900 France 2
B. M'gladbach B. Munich 1945 Bundesliga
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
7th Jan
Hapoel Kfar Saba Maccabi Petah Tikva 1700
Israel2-0 to the home team
0.98 pts
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@stuart-capstick Cheers for the comprehensive answer. I do like the set and forget aspect but the bigger lay prices in some games cause me to hesitate from going in from the start.
Still, your results show it's one to follow and I'm sure I'll find some middle ground.
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@oliver-moore
Sorry, I didn't answer all the points you raised.
I lay for one point (one percent) of my bank per trade. I worked out that with 2% stakes, you could be looking at profit in the thousands of points. But, also, the maximum drawdown reaches @75 points. I think staking is something I'll have to consider.
If you look at the spreadsheet I worked out the profit per month. The equity (P/L) graph also, at the moment, shows non- flattening.
I keep a close eye on the profit/loss of each league. For example, Eng National -
@oliver-moore
Hi Oliver. To be honest, I just wanted a nice, steadily growing set and forget strat which would give me a couple of points each month.
Looking back over the data, it does that. But, some months are negative, others massively positive.
My main strategies are all based around SHG trading and so I wanted something that would take 10 mins max per day.
I've learned you need to take the long view. With this in mind, I'm willing to accept eejits like PSG screwing things up every now and again in return for a steady long term @5-6 points per month.
I reckon this could be optimised via HT LTD or extensive checking of team news etc. You probably could optimise it by considering price action analysis: getting in after a downturn or out after highs. But, for me, that would defeat the object of having a set and forget to complement my more "interventionist" trading.
So, after a probably tedious, long-winded, answer, I just look and see if the away team is under 2 and LTD pre-match. I haven't found any advantage doing this either long before or immediately before KO. I originally tried laying below the Betfair price, but this meant missing games with an early goal that would have been profitable. So, now I just lay as soon as I see the opportunities. I accept the variance knowing that long term it is profitable.Hope this helps. But don't let me put you off finding a better angle.
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@stuart-capstick I appreciate there are a number of ways to play this but how do you trade this? Do you set it up to win a point per trade or do the lay odds influence whether you play or not?
I'm still fairly new to this but have been setting it up to only enter when the lay price drops to 3.0. It's worked quite well but then you get games like the PSG one yesterday which balls things up! -
@daniel-mills
Hi Daniel,
Thanks for the recommendation. I'd be looking very closely at line ups and motivation for the cup games. I'm sure you've already thought of this as well.
Definitely worth a look. The model has only ever considered leagues and European level cups, but it has worked well in those cups. -
Hi Stuart
Have you been tempted by the Copa del Rey games for this filter? Noticed a couple fit the criteria yesterday. Haven't checked the ones tonight.
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7th Jan
Hapoel Kfar Saba Maccabi Petah Tikva 1700
Israel -
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
6th Jan
Crotone Roma 1400
Sampdoria Inter 1400
Lorient Monaco 1800
St Etienne PSG 2000Crotone Roma 1-3
Sampdoria Inter 2-1
Lorient Monaco 2-5
St Etienne PSG 1-1Jesus.......Hard to believe PSG were ECL finalists. So wasteful.
-1.46 pts
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6th Jan
Crotone Roma 1400
Sampdoria Inter 1400
Lorient Monaco 1800
St Etienne PSG 2000
