LTD set and forget (if you wish)
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I've gained so much from all you good people that I thought it was time to give something back and what better time to do it than now.
This is a LTD pre match set and forget, with away teams of odds 2 or less. It is very league specific. I've collected data on it going back to 2013. It has a degree of variance, but it is long term profitable. I've carried out a t-test and the results are profitable long term.
The table and graph in the spreadsheet show the monthly profit (around 6 pts), yield and p value (essentially a less than 1/10,000 probability that these results are a fluke).
There are a tonne of ways to modify this:
- Check team news
- Check motivation
- LTD at HT if drawing to get better odds
- Cash out at 80 mins to avoid late goals, if you are so inclined.
The odds on the spreadsheet are from bet365 maximum odds, which may be lower than those on betfair, so I usually queue my lay bets a few ticks below.
Even without doing any of those the strategy is profitable as can be seen from the spreadsheet.
Filter:
Leagues: Ger. Bundesliga I
Denmark Superliga
Denmark Division 1
Eng. Premiership
Eng. National
France: Ligue 1
France: Ligue 2
France: National
Italy: Serie A
Italy: Serie B
Israel: Ligat ha'Al
Portugal: Primeira Liga
Portugal: Segunda Liga
Qatar Premier
Russia: Premier League
Sco. Premiership
Serbia: Super Liga
Slovakia: Fortuna Liga
Tur. Süper Lig
UEFA Europa League (a gold mine)
UkraineSummer Leagues
Belarus
Chile
Finland Veikkausliga
Ireland Premier League
Japan J2
Lithuania
Paraguay
USA MLSAny questions, feel free to ask.0_1608739475054_LTDweakhomessummer and winter 2.xlsx
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@james-rome said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@wayne-ironside
@wayne-ironside said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
I have been tracking the data, but only been checking the stats filter once a day, so may have missed some. All losses are worked out using bet explorer.
hey mate cheers for this just had a quick look over this
this coloumn is that you 9.8 you layed £10 with 2% comission so won £9.80
Yes that's right
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@wayne-ironside
@wayne-ironside said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
I have been tracking the data, but only been checking the stats filter once a day, so may have missed some. All losses are worked out using bet explorer.
hey mate cheers for this just had a quick look over this
this coloumn is that you 9.8 you layed £10 with 2% comission so won £9.80
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I have been tracking the data, but only been checking the stats filter once a day, so may have missed some. All losses are worked out using bet explorer.
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@james-rome not sure if people are, stuart has gone quiet, im sure he said it was summer leagues that had stifled this, dan cooper might still be tracking it if he is still around, havent seen either post in a while tho
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Just woundering if you still trading this ??
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@stuart-capstick Thanks for this. Been through a lot of the thread and haven't seen this asked.
What is your setup for this part of the filters?
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@darri
Agreed. I think the Euros, plus COVID, plus the lack of a break for the summer league players has taken its toll.
I stopped posting these temporarily because:
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It was a pain in the arse finding some fixtures as BTC stats doesn't really work well with odds based strategies (sorry, but it just doesn't; however, BTC stats are great for other strategies).
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I want to let the teams get the early season nonsense out of their systems, i.e. the Southampton Man Utd 1-1 with its 28 missed chances etc
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@stuart-capstick seems to be a common theme for a lot of strategies this year even the ones that have had good success in summers past. Ill be happy to see this years summer leagues gone as a line in the crazy year of football and a return to normal football trading again.
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@darri
Summer Leagues -21 pts...disastrous
Winter Leagues (since January, getting on every game, no matter the draw odds) around 50 points.
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Have people been tracking these still?
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@daniel-cooper said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@james-everard said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):Know that feeling , i will finish this evening updating my spreadsheet for July , Will post on my blog later on. Today's results not been good 2 draws out of 3 so far, possibly shouldn't have traded as some leagues have just started .
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@james-everard said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@daniel-cooper Hi Daniel i have been trading a few of these from the filter how have you been getting on with the strategy?
I’m so out of date with my sheet to he honest mate, will get back to you when I have some numbers to back it up
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I will be updating my July results tonight for my systems so will see how this system performed last month and then hopefully next week will catch up with the August results so i can then start September trading properly
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@daniel-cooper Hi Daniel i have been trading a few of these from the filter how have you been getting on with the strategy?
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Hey Stuart. I hope you are well. There have been a few selections for this over the last few days, and plenty on tomorrow. Have you taken a break from the strat/forum, or decided to let others check their own matches? Not heard from you in few days
I’m sure you’re just busy -
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
August 15th
Riteriai Suduva 1-3
Smorgon Shakhtyor 2-2 DON'T SAY A WORD. JUST DON'T!
Drogheda Shamrock Rovers 0-1Hovering:
Grodno Gomel 1-0About a point down on these today.
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@stuart-capstick if Colo Colo aren’t sponsored by Coca Cola it is a travesty!
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
August 14th
Two to watch; both hovering.
Oulu Inter Turku 2-0
Union Espanola Colo Colo 0-1(fantastic team names; much better than, say, Scunthorpe, you must admit)
