LTD set and forget (if you wish)
-
Edit "Another" one tonight, I got on for same odds as @Richard-Latimer, really happy with this since I started tracking!
Jinxed - statistical downswing incoming hahaha
accidentally said anyone, not another
-
I'd say around 70 mins. This is when traders start to panic/trade out. In all the manuals, traders are told to cash out around 70 if a trade is not going your way. Which is a bit daft, really, as after 70 mins is when a lot of goals are scored.
That said, it depends: in-play (losing side going for it/getting panzered), how much of a favourite the favourite is etc.
-
Stuart, is there a general (average) point in the match where the cash out profit starts to turn upwards? I should explain: I layed the draw with £10 at 4.2 and the goal came very early and I could have exited with £3.7 profit at that stage. Obviously as the first half has gone on, the cash-out profit has decayed and is £2.19 at half time. Assuming it stays at 1-0 to the favourites, presumably there will come a time when that profit starts to turn for the better and reach the full £10 at the final whistle. In your experience, is the time of that 'improvement' similar in each game?
-
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Bear in mind:
France Ligue 2 has less than 100 qualifying games
Ykonnen- 4 freakish results in September 2020, pushes the profit right down, only 62 games
Serie B- only 47 games, all of the draws occur at the end of the season. If you follow football, Serie B end of the season is as dodgy as a Brexit deal (sorry for the politics, but it's a pretty good analogy)
France National- only 54 games
Eng National is the one I avoid- part time players, ever changing squadsAll very interesting to see. Thanks for that. Got on tonight's pre kick-off @4.2.
-
Bear in mind:
France Ligue 2 has less than 100 qualifying games
Ykonnen- 4 freakish results in September 2020, pushes the profit right down, only 62 games
Serie B- only 47 games, all of the draws occur at the end of the season. If you follow football, Serie B end of the season is as dodgy as a Brexit deal (sorry for the politics, but it's a pretty good analogy)
France National- only 54 games
Eng National is the one I avoid- part time players, ever changing squads -
Do you have a list of best to worst leagues for this the same as you do for odds?
-
Jan 18th
Cagliari AC Milan Serie A 1945
-
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Looking at the table, Rangers have only ever drawn twice away when at that price out of 19 games.
Seemed like a good idea at the time....They had also won like 16 games on the trot, so it looked pretty "safe".
-
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Looking at the table, Rangers have only ever drawn twice away when at that price out of 19 games.
Seemed like a good idea at the time....Sure. I'm just going on the overall picture from your data. I see AC Milan is the play tomorrow.
-
Looking at the table, Rangers have only ever drawn twice away when at that price out of 19 games.
Seemed like a good idea at the time.... -
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
17th Jan
Motherwell Rangers Scot Prem 12:00 1-1 (Useless Rangers; they're going to win the Prem anyway, may as well have let Motherwell have some glory)
Sheffield Utd Tottenham Eng Prem 14:00 1-3-4.02 pts
I didn't do this one as price point seems iffy to me from the table you posted.
-
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
17th Jan
Motherwell Rangers Scot Prem 12:00 1-1 (Useless Rangers; they're going to win the Prem anyway, may as well have let Motherwell have some glory)
Sheffield Utd Tottenham Eng Prem 14:00 1-3-4.02 pts
-
There probably is some optimum staking plan you could follow, but the sheet shows profit with level stakes. If you ratcheted that up to 2%, you'd be looking at profits in the thousands of points, but with corresponding periods of larger downturns.
As I've said, you have to look at this long term; not over the course of 6, 10 or even 100 trades.@Richard-Latimer
That is annoying, but not a bad idea. Very few goals are scored so early. It's just a question of how long the price has to decay to reach the level you want. -
Having decided to paper trade my own stuff and do this I tried to lay draw in Sheffield @ ave book price. Mistake. Goal after 5 mins. Perhaps need to ensure matched before kickoff in future.
-
Hi stuart, do you use a staking plan or just lay one point at whatever the odds are for that game. I have been following this for the last few days and have got the last 6 out of 6. However if rangers get a draw here against motherwell it would wipe out all those last 6 as the odds for the draw were 6.6 when i laid for one point. Thanks
-
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Sweet Mother of God, Richard! Never be putting your trust in my judgement!
Well I can't use my own haha
-
Sweet Mother of God, Richard! Never be putting your trust in my judgement!
-
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
I did, but it hasn't even dropped to that price either.
No, admittedly but it's close haha
That said, you're the one with the data and so trust your judgement.
-
I did, but it hasn't even dropped to that price either.
-
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@richard-latimer
No harm doing so, but the Rennes price has never really been close to 2. It may drop nearer kick-off:
Thought you said France was up to 2.2?
