LTD set and forget (if you wish)
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@stuart-capstick Hi Stuart, this is really helpful thank you and makes absolute sense of course. You're a gentleman and a scholar!
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@richard-latimer said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@alastair-todd said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Stuart, sorry if this has been covered before but why does the filter look for the away team with odds < 2 and not the home team? All things being equal, wouldn't there be more likelihood of a win if the home team was stronger? There is probably an obvious answer but I'm missing it.
Not my filter but plenty of home wins too on this, just not many draws. I was thinking about whether it could be tailored for an away backing strat. I think the best thing is just to leave as is and be thankful it was shared haha!
Home teams don't lose a lot when fave and perhaps that means more draws than otherwise.
18.5% home wins up to the end of December. It does seem like more, though. I did look at that as another edge but turns out there wasn't one.
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Hi Alistair. Basically this isn't about which team is better. It's about bookmakers and exchanges incorrectly estimating the price of the draw. They are more likely to get it wrong when the favourite is the away team.
I did look at home favourites and laying the draw but the prices of the draw were much higher and it simply wasn't profitable. It was actually better to lay the away team. However, the prices were very high.
Don't take my word for it, however. You could set up your own filter on BTC and just track it. When you get around 500 games, it'll give you an idea of whether or not it's profitable. 500 sounds a lot but it's probably a couple of months only given how many home favourites are priced below 2. -
@alastair-todd said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Stuart, sorry if this has been covered before but why does the filter look for the away team with odds < 2 and not the home team? All things being equal, wouldn't there be more likelihood of a win if the home team was stronger? There is probably an obvious answer but I'm missing it.
Not my filter but plenty of home wins too on this, just not many draws. I was thinking about whether it could be tailored for an away backing strat. I think the best thing is just to leave as is and be thankful it was shared haha!
Home teams don't lose a lot when fave and perhaps that means more draws than otherwise.
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Stuart, sorry if this has been covered before but why does the filter look for the away team with odds < 2 and not the home team? All things being equal, wouldn't there be more likelihood of a win if the home team was stronger? There is probably an obvious answer but I'm missing it.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Feb 8th
Potential:Yeni Malyataspor Trabzonspor Turkey 1600
Currently hovering at 2.2
0-2
0.98 PTS. -
Feb 8th
Potential:Yeni Malyataspor Trabzonspor Turkey 1600
Currently hovering at 2.2
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Feb 7th
Hamilton Rangers 1-1 Bluenose Bastards
Novi Par Crvena Zvezda 1-3
Wolves Leicester (currently 2.18) 0-0
Nimes Monaco 3-4
Nantes Lille 0-2
Liverpool Man City (currently 2.14) 1-4
Sheff Utd Chelsea 1-2
Marseille PSG 0-2Fortunately, I was out training and only got back in time to place the trade at HT in the Rangers game:
Meaning that today's total is -1.12 points
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@matt-wood said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@alastair-todd Haha been there and done that a few times mate! The markets are not very forgiving of principles
Im hoping nobody took the LTD at those odds on the Rangers game. Went with the double chance myself and thought that was a bit daft after I did it
Don't go over 5.5 in terms of ave odds so no haha
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Back in to the Monaco game with the underdog having pulled back to a draw within the first 34 minutes. What price Over 3.5 FH goals at the start of the match!
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@matt-wood said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@alastair-todd Haha been there and done that a few times mate! The markets are not very forgiving of principles
Im hoping nobody took the LTD at those odds on the Rangers game. Went with the double chance myself and thought that was a bit daft after I did it
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@matt-wood said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@alastair-todd Haha been there and done that a few times mate! The markets are not very forgiving of principles
Im hoping nobody took the LTD at those odds on the Rangers game. Went with the double chance myself and thought that was a bit daft after I did it
I only put a fifth of a point on it as it wasn't very long ago that they failed to beat Motherwell!
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@matt-wood One look at the Rangers odds at 12's was the easiest trading decision for a long while
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@alastair-todd Haha been there and done that a few times mate! The markets are not very forgiving of principles
Im hoping nobody took the LTD at those odds on the Rangers game. Went with the double chance myself and thought that was a bit daft after I did it
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That really serves me right! Trying to lay the draw in the Monaco match in the first minute of the game and decided that I would wait for 4.8 instead of 4.9 (out of principle!). Guess what? Goal went in while it was waiting to be matched so I now have the princely sum of 84p on the trade. It won't be long before I can go full time at this rate
By the way, if there are any Rangers supporters around, have a word will you?! -
@daniel-cooper said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Feb 6th
Freiburg Dortmund
Schalke Leipzig
Augsburg Wolfsburg
Genoa Napoli
Fulham W Ham
Ashdod Maccabi Haifa
Indija Cukaricki (Serbia)3.33 pts
(Burnley Brighton never actually qualified. Thankfully..)
Didn’t it?! I must have been considering the incorrect value! Darn.... also, couldn’t get that Serbian game on Betfair, so missed it. Still not a bad day with the rugby!
Oh it was 2.2, not 2.0? In which case, it did at one point, I can probably find the time I entered at, I got on when the Away back price was 2.16. Oh well!
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Another Serbian game BTC hasn't picked up (yet?)
Novi Pazar Red Star Belgrade 1200
For Info: Red Star is Crvena Zvezda on Betfair
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Feb 7th
Hamilton Rangers
Wolves Leicester (currently 2.18)
Nimes Monaco
Nantes Lille
Liverpool Man City (currently 2.14)
Sheff Utd Chelsea
Marseille PSG -
Never fell under 2.2 as far as I could see. Admittedly, I didn't constantly check.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Feb 6th
Freiburg Dortmund
Schalke Leipzig
Augsburg Wolfsburg
Genoa Napoli
Fulham W Ham
Ashdod Maccabi Haifa
Indija Cukaricki (Serbia)3.33 pts
(Burnley Brighton never actually qualified. Thankfully..)
Didn’t it?! I must have been considering the incorrect value! Darn.... also, couldn’t get that Serbian game on Betfair, so missed it. Still not a bad day with the rugby!
