LTD set and forget (if you wish)
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Feb 6th
Freiburg Dortmund
Schalke Leipzig
Augsburg Wolfsburg
Genoa Napoli
Fulham W Ham
Ashdod Maccabi Haifa
Indija Cukaricki (Serbia)3.33 pts
(Burnley Brighton never actually qualified. Thankfully..)
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Burnley Brighton now right on the 2.2 threshold
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@matt-wood said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@chris-osborne said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@matt-wood said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Morning Stuart, hope you are well. Do you pull these results manually or from btc software filter.? I only ask as the Israel and Serbian games do not come up on mine yet they seem to qualify.
Not on my filter either Matt, nor is the Fulham game although odds need to come in significantly in Freiburg and Schalke for me to consider taking
Yes I am taking the double chance trade when the odds are over 4 for the draw, at least until my bank grows a bit
Am tracking both options on every game though, early days, but the double chance seems to return a slightly lower yield(?) that the LTD.There's alot going on today anyway even Ryan's split stake filter has over 10 games on it I'm happy to leave these games where the odds are high
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@chris-osborne said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@matt-wood said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Morning Stuart, hope you are well. Do you pull these results manually or from btc software filter.? I only ask as the Israel and Serbian games do not come up on mine yet they seem to qualify.
Not on my filter either Matt, nor is the Fulham game although odds need to come in significantly in Freiburg and Schalke for me to consider taking
Yes I am taking the double chance trade when the odds are over 4 for the draw, at least until my bank grows a bit
Am tracking both options on every game though, early days, but the double chance seems to return a slightly lower yield(?) that the LTD. -
@matt-wood said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Morning Stuart, hope you are well. Do you pull these results manually or from btc software filter.? I only ask as the Israel and Serbian games do not come up on mine yet they seem to qualify.
Not on my filter either Matt, nor is the Fulham game although odds need to come in significantly in Freiburg and Schalke for me to consider taking
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I know the leagues and look on betfair/smarkets each day.
BTC stats are great, but nothing is perfect. Sometimes there is a lag with the BTC stats.
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Feb 6th
Freiburg Dortmund
Schalke Leipzig
Augsburg Wolfsburg
Genoa Napoli
Fulham W Ham
Ashdod Maccabi Haifa
Indija Cukaricki (Serbia) -
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Rodez Clermont France 2
Hertha Berlin B.Munich
Maritimo Sporting
Fiorentina InterInter owe us big time after a 0-0. However, they are a team that flatters to deceive.
3.92 pts
Left Bayern alone but glad to see it came in.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Rodez Clermont France 2
Hertha Berlin B.Munich
Maritimo Sporting
Fiorentina InterInter owe us big time after a 0-0. However, they are a team that flatters to deceive.
3.92 pts
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Alistair, sorry if it came across hectoring and lecturing yesterday.
You are going trading exactly as you should at the start: learning discipline, understanding the markets etc.
The point of this strategy is that it is set and forget. Even the less profitable odds ranges (between 5.5 and 7.5) would still make money.
I don't really try to optimise because:
a) it doesn't really need it
b) I've got about 5 other strategies on the go that do need my attentionMaybe an idea would be to trade this one from HT if the teams are drawing. You know there is high percentage likelihood it won't end in a draw (over 80%) and the percentage of 0-0s sis about 6%, where typically the average league has about 8% 0-0s.
This would help you in training and give you a bit of a safety net.
The other point is this works quite well as an O1.5 strategy-about 76%.Not a bit of it Stuart. I have broad shoulders and am MORE than happy to be given advice by someone who has much more experience than I do at this game. It is much appreciated. I will certainly look in to adding some of the selections in as an O1.5 goals strategy. Many thanks, and here's to a green weekend!
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Rodez Clermont France 2
Hertha Berlin B.Munich
Maritimo Sporting
Fiorentina InterInter owe us big time after a 0-0. However, they are a team that flatters to deceive.
Thanking you. Got to admit not a fan of Italian footy but your league stats do not lie.
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Rodez Clermont France 2
Hertha Berlin B.Munich
Maritimo Sporting
Fiorentina InterInter owe us big time after a 0-0. However, they are a team that flatters to deceive.
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Any picks today?
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Alistair, sorry if it came across hectoring and lecturing yesterday.
You are going trading exactly as you should at the start: learning discipline, understanding the markets etc.
The point of this strategy is that it is set and forget. Even the less profitable odds ranges (between 5.5 and 7.5) would still make money.
I don't really try to optimise because:
a) it doesn't really need it
b) I've got about 5 other strategies on the go that do need my attentionMaybe an idea would be to trade this one from HT if the teams are drawing. You know there is high percentage likelihood it won't end in a draw (over 80%) and the percentage of 0-0s sis about 6%, where typically the average league has about 8% 0-0s.
This would help you in training and give you a bit of a safety net.
The other point is this works quite well as an O1.5 strategy-about 76%. -
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
On a more important note, Nanu, the guy who was poleaxed last night in the Porto game appears to have regained consciousness.
Glad he's ok because now it doesn't seem so bad that my first thought was Nanu Nanu.
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On a more important note, Nanu, the guy who was poleaxed last night in the Porto game appears to have regained consciousness.
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@darri @Stuart-Capstick
Darri and Stuart, another excellent series of posts - precipitated I think by my frustration yesterday evening about a losing trade. I can assure you both that I certainly do have a longer term view of trading and that a loss here or there isn't going to start me questioning the validity of a particular filter or strategy. For what it's worth, I am trying to get to grips with only two strategies at the moment: Stuart's Set and Forget and Ryan's 1.5 split strategy. There are probably other strategies that I would like to get good at - Darri's for example which can deliver a quick profit (or loss) in a short period of the match, but I am taking on the guidance that many people, including you both, have given to get to grips with one or two before you explore others. Yesterday's frustration was entirely borne out of the fact that, as I said to Stuart, I was making a real effort to do everything correctly, doing the research and not blindly entering the trade because the filter had it on the list, and waiting until the liability had come low enough for me to enter the trade. Sod's Law reared its ugly head of course! Anyway, keep up the good work. You are both part of the reason why this forum is so good - you continue with the same message that slow and steady wins the race and that there are no short cuts in this game. Apologies for the rambling post this early in the morning.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Disallowed goal FH
Keeper has a stunning game
Some poor guy hit with an elbow that wouldn't have been out of place in a Muay Thai bout.Incidentally, the longest losing run is 4. The longest winning run is 30.
At the risk of repeating myself, you won't win every game. There will be losing months. Look at the spreadsheet. You need to think long term. If the pain of losing a couple is too much, then you need to think about:
a) lowering your stakes
b) using double chance
c) Doing something else.Well said! The proof is on the sheets. I think a lot of people who are newer or havent got any other profitable strategy are relying on this as their sole/main strategy. As Stuart has said here there will be losing months so having it as your stand alone strategy is going to mean you need to ignore the thoughts of making profit every day/week/month and use it to build the bank long term. Remember the strategy is about taking advantage of inefficient draw prices its less about how good certain teams are or how they are playing. Just try forget about each individual game. Youll drive yourself mad thinking that way with this. You can see this with how people are jumpy on certain days on here. Yes by all means optimise if you think less volatility is the way to go but just remember everything stuart has mentioned on this post. Long term not short term gains. I personally am not trading these but if i was id just allow it to run and breathe, with the knowledge that in 3-4 months ill have a increasing bank. Im not trading it because i personally dont like not seeing progress each month, my mindset on that is something iv come to find. I start to make rash decisions when this happens. Im full time trader but im still trying to manage mindset too. Just make sure your mindset is good if this is your sole strategy and that you are prepared for the losses that will come and prepared for the long term aspect. Dont get jumpy from less than a months worth of results, if you are then as stuart says this may not be the strategy for you. Dont fall to FOMO. Its profitable but so are other strategies which might actually suit you more mentally.
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Belenenses Porto 0-0 -4pts
Tottenham Chelsea 0-1 0.98-3.02 pts
