LTD set and forget (if you wish)
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I totally missed Bratislava and avoided Covilha based on odds so another good day here.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Feb 13th
Dundee Utd Livingston
Ruzemberok Slovan Bratislava
Fatih Karagumruk Fenerbahce
Hapoel Kafa Saba Maccabi Tel Aviv
Spezia AC Milan
Radnicki Nis Crvena Zvezda
Leicester Liverpool (hovering around 2.2)
Wealdstone Bromley
Covilha Vizela (Portugal Segunda)-1.1 pts today for me.
Crowns a truly w**k day of trading.
I owe an apology to anybody who follows this as I should have cautioned against the Ruzomberok Slovan game as Slovakia is just restarting after the winter break.
you dont owe anyone an apology mate
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Feb 13th
Dundee Utd Livingston
Ruzemberok Slovan Bratislava
Fatih Karagumruk Fenerbahce
Hapoel Kafa Saba Maccabi Tel Aviv
Spezia AC Milan
Radnicki Nis Crvena Zvezda
Leicester Liverpool (hovering around 2.2)
Wealdstone Bromley
Covilha Vizela (Portugal Segunda)-1.1 pts today for me.
Crowns a truly w**k day of trading.
I owe an apology to anybody who follows this as I should have cautioned against the Ruzomberok Slovan game as Slovakia is just restarting after the winter break.
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Do you think Alisson is following this thread too haha? Only explanation I can think of for unceremoniusly taking out your own CB haha!!
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BTC stats possibly only pick them up when they appear on betfair with a certain amount of liquidity? Israel is a low liquidity league on Saturdays?
Israel comes up fine mid-week when there are fewer games.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Mine neither, which is why it's always worth a manual check.
Wonder why that is though
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Mine neither, which is why it's always worth a manual check.
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
Feb 13th
Dundee Utd Livingston
Ruzemberok Slovan Bratislava
Fatih Karagumruk Fenerbahce
Hapoel Kafa Saba Maccabi Tel Aviv
Spezia AC Milan
Radnicki Nis Crvena Zvezda
Leicester Liverpool (hovering around 2.2)
Wealdstone Bromley
Covilha Vizela (Portugal Segunda)It's weird. Israel hardly ever shows up on my filter.
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Feb 13th
Dundee Utd Livingston
Ruzemberok Slovan Bratislava
Fatih Karagumruk Fenerbahce
Hapoel Kafa Saba Maccabi Tel Aviv
Spezia AC Milan
Radnicki Nis Crvena Zvezda
Leicester Liverpool (hovering around 2.2)
Wealdstone Bromley
Covilha Vizela (Portugal Segunda) -
Solid information! Like you said about august, the EL qualifiers are obviously bringing the figures down so an easy one to dodge. Also National League is a bit of a dodgy one anyway, I’m not too confident on the quality and reliability. That may be a good thing or a bad thing but for me I wouldn’t trade that league
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@stuart-capstick said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
P/L by month.
Couple of caveats:- This goes right back to 2013, while this strategy became profitable from around 2015/16.
- August- if you remove the Europa League qualifiers and the Eng National, you'd be about 45pts in profit
- July's low profit is due to there only being Summer Leagues in action; far fewer of those than Winter Leagues.
I'll do a separate analysis for 2015/16 onwards
One important point: there was a discussion on the Football thread where Finn demonstrated that December is the least profitable month. This is borne out by the data here. Even this strategy is badly affected by the "December Drought".
thanks for this, really interesting to see!
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12th Feb
Nothing today.
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P/L by month.
Couple of caveats:- This goes right back to 2013, while this strategy became profitable from around 2015/16.
- August- if you remove the Europa League qualifiers and the Eng National, you'd be about 45pts in profit
- July's low profit is due to there only being Summer Leagues in action; far fewer of those than Winter Leagues.
I'll do a separate analysis for 2015/16 onwards
One important point: there was a discussion on the Football thread where Finn demonstrated that December is the least profitable month. This is borne out by the data here. Even this strategy is badly affected by the "December Drought".
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Top grossing leagues- bodes well for the Premier League next month.
The Europa League becomes a gold mine once it enters the league format in September onwards.
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@Lee-woodman
Lee here are the leagues that lose 10 points or more in a month. Bear in mind this is over 7 years, however. Not really any clear signs of seasonal effects.
The only pattern I can really see is to avoid the very early Europa League games: pre-season two leg affairs where you may get the odd shock draw.
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@mark-maguire said in LTD set and forget (if you wish):
National League North and South are largely part time but some of the budgets would surprise you too
My local side play in the conference South. I think all clubs bar Dulwich Hamlet are part time. This is the lowest level where the league is classed Elite hence the season has had to carry. Although lots of matches have had to be cancelled due to covid cases and some clubs are now refusing to continue the season as the financial support clubs were getting is not going to continue. Some clubs are now playing u23's sides so be careful trading at this level.
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@stuart-capstick Yes that’s one league which is notoriously bad for it!
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@lee-woodman
Not overall, no. But there are certain league effects. For example, don't touch Serie B April onwards.
I'll post in more detail later today. -
@stuart-capstick Have you noticed any seasonality with the results? Are they worse at the start/end of the season? Ive never really looked at any data with draws but thought maybe start of the season takes a bit to get into and towards the end sees a few teams scrapping for every point
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Feb 11th
Nothing today.
Thursday: the trader's Limbo
