MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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@Shannon-Townsend said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard really good results... what do you look for with regards injury time goals? I have been looking at the laying low option but going in a bit scatter gun approach...
My injury goal filter is based on the last 5 games for each side and i look for odds under 1.30 on the laying under the next goals market on 90 mins mate
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Evening All , a brief update on my two strategies for March.
System 1- BACK DRAW AT KO VERSION B ( 3.50+)
TRADES 40
WON 13
LOST 27
S/RATE 32.50%
PROFIT £47.56System 2 - INJURY TIME GOAL VERSION B
TRADES 61
WON 18
LOST 43
S/RATE 29.51%
PROFIT £97.17The starting trading bank for March was £421.87 , but i carried on with the previous staking due to the time i had recorded my results in February was so late.
So my new bank for April is £566.60, and a new liability stake of £5.66 (1% of my bank)I have loads of paper trading results to analyse from March so will update in a few days time on these
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@james-everard really good results... what do you look for with regards injury time goals? I have been looking at the laying low option but going in a bit scatter gun approach...
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Evening , a rather belated update for February. Been busy with work and just got around to finally finishing off recording the data. Started with a trading bank for February at £308.81 with 1% liabilty stakes. Carried on with the two systems but been paper trading loads more hence the delay in recording all the results.
System 1 - INJURY TIME GOAL VERSION B
TRADES 68
WON 22
LOST 46
S/RATE 32.35%
PROFIT £111.53System 2 - BACK THE DRAW AT K/O VERSION B ODDS 3.50+
TRADES 38
WON 11
LOST 27
S/RATE 28.95%
PROFIT £1.53Not good on the back the draw , but still a small profit, the injury time goal system is doing really well and building my bank up nicely
The new balance is £421.87. Because of the delay in catching up with the results i have carried on using £3.08 stakes for March , which i shall carry on doing until the beginning of April. I will make sure i record the results for March before the start of April so i can using my new staking plan .Of the other strategies i have been paper trading, several are looking promising so will update more at the end of the month if any meet my criteria of 3 straight profitable months of paper trading
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Really pleased how it is going now , my mentality is good and i have managed to tripple my bank from £100 at the beginning of December to more £300 allowing me to increase my stakes. Hopefully February continues in the same vain
That's Amazing!
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Morning all rather late update for January's results. I scrapped the system of backing over 1.5 goals as looking at the return it wasn't worth continuing ( all you need is some variance and big losses can occur). So i just traded the two other systems which have proved profitable again for January. my starting bank for January was £233.01 with 1% stakes of £2.33
Strategy 1- Back the draw at kick off version B( odds 3.50 +)
Trades 23, won 7,lost 16,s/rate 30.43% Profit £9.41Strategy 2- Injury time goal version B( Lay the under goals market on 90 getting around 1.30 or below odds)
Trades 43, Won 14,lost 29, s/rate 32.56% Profit £66.39So the new trading bank for February is now £308.81, with a new stake (based on 1% of my bank is £3.08)
I have been paper trading various other systems as well , some have proving not profitable but some are looking good. With my paper trading i am looking for 3 profitable months before i start thinking about taking on any new strategies with real money, two of which have had 2 months of looking good so i will evaluate at the end of the month if they are ok to start trading in March.
Really pleased how it is going now , my mentality is good and i have managed to tripple my bank from £100 at the beginning of December to more £300 allowing me to increase my stakes. Hopefully February continues in the same vain -
@james-everard that's really good! well done!
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Evening all , my update from Decembers trading . I started trading three strategies last month after 4 months of paper trading but decided to stop the original 1 strategy i was trading in November.
My version of Martins back over 1.5 goals system which i reversed to back under 1.5 goals between the odds range of 3.0-4.50 i decided to ditch. I was making really good money at the start of November but things started to turn half way through which i carried on for the remainder of that month. I decided to paper trade this for December instead to see if it was variance but glad i didn't put any money down in December as would have lost 57 points so glad i have decided to ditch.
So the three systems i started last month were as follows , my trading bank had increased to £126.00 at the start of December with stakes being 1% (£1.26 )System 1 - BACK OVER 1.5 GOALS VERSION A (MIN ODDS 1.25)
Trades 31
won 23
lost 8
s/rate 74.19%
points 0.87
ROI 2.81%
Profit £1.10System 2 - BACK THE DRAW AT K/O VERSION B ( ODDS 3.50+)
Trades 36
Won 13
Lost 23
s/rate 36.11%
Profit £15.95
Points profit 12.66
ROI 35.16%System 3 - INJURY TIME GOAL VERSION B ( LAST 5 MATCHES) ENTER 89MINS
Trades 80
Won 25
Lost 55
S/rate 31.25%
Points profit 71.39
Profit £89.96
ROI 89.25%So systems 2 and 3 and doing really well hopefully they continue this month also. i am paper trading various other systems also so hopefully other systems will come into play at a latter stage.
My new trading bank has increased significantly from December and now sits at £233.01 and with 1% stakes my new stakes will be £2.33 -
@james-everard good work mate!
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Right that time of the month again where i review the previous month.
As stated on this blog last month after 3 months of paper trading i was happy enough to start with a £100.00 bank this month just using 1% stake on just one strategy.
The value of the stakes was very important to me as i want to be extremely disciplined this time around.
Anyway the system i started trading was a variation of Martin back over 1.5 goals , but i have reversed the system and was backing under 1.5 goals if the odds range at kick off was between 3.0-4.5.
Trades 96
Won 35
Lost 61
S/rate 36.46%
Profit of £26.00
Or 26 points profit.So really pleased with system for November, and typically since i have now upped my stakes to £1.26 this month i have had 10 losses out of 10. But last month i had a similar start but with the opposite results.
I have been paper trading lots of systems over the last 3 months and i am now prepared to trade another 3 system using the minimum stakes
They are a Back the Draw at Kick off which has had a great start with 3 wins out of 4 today, a back over 1.5 goal system at kick off and finally an injury time goal strategy. -
@Martin Thanks Martin, a good start this weekend as well . I have started off with a £100 bank just using £1 stakes and up £14.23 in profit over the weekend.
Should have done this from the outset of collating data and stats , picking apart systems and finding an edge.
Any newbies i would suggest you do this as well , no money on any trading until you are happy that you have a system that will be profitable -
@james-everard that's excellent good work!
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Morning All. Thought i would update on my paper trading strategies. I have been testing quite a few different systems to try and find some angles. Some of which which would have lost money this month , but analysing the data i have now tweaked some slightly and will carry on paper trading this month to see if the tweaks make any improvements.
There is one i am thinking of starting trading with minimum stakes of £1 with a starting bank of £100( 1% stakes).
It is based off Martin's back over 1.5 system but i have reversed it by backing under 1.5 goals within a odds range of 3.05-4.45.
I have so far been paper trading for 3 months , based on if i was using £10 stakes , 196 trades, won 71, lost 125, s/rate 36.22% profit would have been £344.88 .
The others i will carry on paper trading until i find the edge -
@james-everard cheers mate will look forward to that!
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@Martin Thanks Martin , hopefully at the end of this month i can produce the results for the filter strategies i am testing and have some to potential start trading soon. Will update the end of the October.
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@james-everard this is really great to hear!
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Evening all been a while since i posted. Been paper trading since July on various strategies not done a trade since and feel so much better mentally.
Been recording various systems which is time consuming but not stressful . so far 2 1/2 months in and have a few that are looking promising.
Especially a back under 1.5 goals system and a back the draw at ko -
@Martin said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard that's a great post! I think one thing I try and tell myself a lot is 'There is no rush!'. Not just in trading but in life, there's actually rarely a good reason to rush things and often it leads to bad outcomes.
it was effecting me mentally especially when you have a terrible weekend. Feel so much better knowing i will only trade now if it has been tested for 3 months and profitable after this period. If it is £1 stakes and if it proves unprofitable again then your losses are minimal .
No rush at all i have been on here for 4 1/2 years making the same mistakes over and over again so a change in the process has to be done and never know this time next year i could be in a totally different place hopefully with my trading -
@Akiva-Anderson said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Just an update feel really good not trading just paper trading all the strategies since my disaster a couple of weeks ago. I am going to carry on recording ,recording recording until the end of September and i should have quite a lot results to scrap any that are not making any money on.
If i find anything that is making good profit on i will start with a trading bank of £100.00 and use £1 stakes(1%) of my bank and go from there. I should have done this from the outset and listened to the advice but looking forward to a hopefully belated trading career!I actually can't paper trade. Must be the fear of missing out?! Martin is right though, there is no rush. That's been the problem for most potential traders.
I'm only really doing SHG's at the moment.
It's been one of my biggest problems. Even after conquering discipline.
If it's not ready it's not ready!
That means leaving a lot on the table but also hopefully means avoiding those soul crushing wtf days!!
