MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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Thought it was time for me to follow in the footsteps of others and start my own personal trading blog to help me track where i am going right or wrong ,and hopefully have some feedback from you guys regards to any improvements i can make.
I have had some personally issues i have been dealing with over the last couple of months but feel in a much better place now. During this period it has allowed me to try to change my gambling habits and i feel much more controlled now. So now is the time for me to be try and be part again of this fantastic forum and bounce ideas off each other again.
I have been trading the last couple of weeks on greyhound racing ( i know not everyone's cup of tea) in the evening which so far on the strategy i am working on seems to be paying dividends for the last 2 weeks i have been doing the system.
I have also a few football strategies i am working on , the best i feel will be ltd , back over 1.5 goals at ht and the late goal strategies. These three football systems i believe with a few tweaks here and there will be good systems.
The way i trade now is i don't lay odds above 3.0 anything above effects my mindset . On the ltd i think i may need some advice please i was going in around the 60min mark when odds are below 2.38 and then split staking the lays on 70 and 85mins . What i am finding though especially yesterday that there are a lot of goal scored between 45-60mins . When people trade the ltd do they do 100% stake at half time irrespective of the odds and if so what is the max odds they go for or do you split stake ? It is great the system when you get a 88th min winner but will the matches that have goal between 45-60mins profits outweigh this ? -
@Martin said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard you planning to trade the summer leagues? Good work by the way, shows the value of leaving end of season games!
Hi Martin yes i am trading the summer leagues , just in the last week or so matches have come up on my filters. I will be trading the Swedish,Finish , Norwegian, Lithuanian, south korea , japan and some South American leagues( minus Colombia and Veneuzuala as they have nearly completed their seasons.
I took your advice a while ago regarding not trading leagues that have nearly finished, just have 3 or 4 weeks of little matches similarly to the end of August/September -
@james-everard you planning to trade the summer leagues? Good work by the way, shows the value of leaving end of season games!
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Afternoon all, update for May. Still profitable just , but not much to trade for May with my criteria of not trading the last 5 matches of the season and not enough matches played on some of my filters on the summer leagues
System 1- Back Over 1.5 First half goals - No trades
System 2 - Lay Home at K/o 5.0-7.0 odds check h2h
Trades 2
Won 1
lost 1
s/rate 50%
Lost £12.24System 3 - Injury Time goal last 5 matches
Trades 18
Won 3
lost 15
s/rate 16.67%
Lost £56.68System 4 - Lay Under 2.5 half 1 goals( odds 1.30 below)
Trades 11
Won 4
lost 7
s/rate 36.36%
Profit £120.03System 5- Lay Under 2.5 Half 2 goals (odds 1.30 below) - No trades
Starting bank was £1505.53 , new trading bank for June is £1556.64, new liability stakes £15.56
Still paper trading various systems , one of which i am going to start trading in June, which is a back 1-1 ft cs strategy, no many matches come up for this system but based on 3 months of testing using £10 stakes , i would have made £336.64 profit.
One more month of testing backing aos for Ht which is looking good as well -
Rather late update for April. As decided i have reverted back to paper trading on some of the systems below are the ones i traded in April based on £12.82 liability stakes (Starting bank £1282.32)
System 1 - Lay Home at K/O (5.0-7.0)check h2h
Trades 10
Won 8
Lost 2
S/rate 80%
Lost £4.96System 2 - Lay Under 2.5 Half 1 goals( Odds 1.30 below)
Trades 6
won 2
lost 4
s/rate 33.33%
Profit £65.71System 3 - Back Over 1.5 FH Goals (odds 2.42+check h2h)
Trades 8
Won 2
Lost 6
S/rate 25%
Lost £42.66System 4- Injury Time Goal version B( Ent 90mins, last 5 matches based)
Trades 22
Won 6
Lost 16
S/rate 27.27%
profit £205.12New trading bank is £1505.53 ( New liabilty stakes based on 1% will be £15.05).
It has slowed down a lot for April not many leagues to trade now the winter season is closing. Have the Egypt, Japanese , Korean and a couple of South American leagues for the next month then the Scandinavian filters should start picking up matches -
Evening all an update for April. A very poor month indeed so much so i will be cutting back on some of the systems to paper trade these instead for a while
System 1 -Back under 1.5 goals ft version D (3-0-3.55 Odds) check h2h
Trades 18
won 5
lost 13
s/rate 27.78%
Lost £75.87System 2- Back draw at k/o version M(H2H Based)3.80-4.50 odds, check elo and league positions
Trades 29
won 6
lost 23%
s/rate 20.69%
Lost £192.15System 3
Back under 2.5 goals Ft (odds 2.0+)check h2h
Trades 66
won 29
lost 37
s/rate 43.94%
lost £156.20System 4 - Lay home at k/o 5.0-6.0 (check h2h)
Trades 20
won 17
lost 3
s/rate 85%
Lost £0.40pSystem 5- Lay Under 2.5 goals H2 Goals( Odds 1.30 below at h/t)
Trades 16
Won 2
lost 14
s/rate 12.50%
Lost £89.46System 6- Back over 1.5 FH Goals (odds 2.42+) check h2h
Trades 31
Won 13
Lost 18
s/rate 41.93%
Profit £34.12So a big loss, my biggest loss in trading for a couple of years. With the end of season now approaching for the winter leagues most i won't be trading now anyway. My rules are once teams have 5 games left of the season i stop trading these matches.
Two systems i will continue this month will be laying the home side and backing over 1.5 first half goals, the others back to paper trading along with various other systems i am recording data on.
Dust myself down and come back refreshed, new bank has been reduced from £1728.16 down to £1282.32, new 1% liability stakes of £12.82 -
@james-everard that is fantastic! Well done mate
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Evening all , a belated update of Februarys results, based on my 1% stakes of my bank £13.60
System 1 - BACK DRAW AT K/O VERSION M ( H2H BASED) , CHECK ELO IS SIMILAR AND LEAGUE POSITIONS
TRADES 18
WON 5
LOST 13
S/RATE 27.78%
PROFIT £18.73SYSTEM 2 - BACK U1.5 GOALS FT VERSION G(H2H BASED(ODDS 3.75-4.50)
TRADES 21
WON 5
LOST 16
S/RATE 23.81%
LOST £66.73SYSTEM 3- LAY HOME AT K/O (CHECK H2H) ODDS 5.0-7.0
TRADES 16
WON 14
LOST 2
S/RATE 87.50%
PROFIT £10.50SYSTEM 4- BACK UNDER 1.5 GOALS AT K/O VERSION D(ODDS 3.0-3.55) CHECK H2H
TRADES 24
WON 10
LOST 14
S/RATE 41.67
PROFIT £105.10SYSTEM 5- BACK UNDER 2.5 GOALS AT K/O STD( 2.0-2.30 ODDS ) CHECK H2H
TRADES 36
WON 19
LOST 17
S/RATE 52.75%
PROFIT £49.31SYSTEM 6- LAY UNDER 2.5 HALF 2 GOALS( LAY ODDS 1.01-1.30)
TRADES 16
WON 5
LOST 9
S/RATE 43.75%
PROFIT £164.75SYSTEM 7- BACK OVER 1.5 HALF 1 GOALS ( ODDS 2.42 + KEEP INPLAY) CHECK H2H
TRADES 37
WON 17
LOST 20
S/RATE 46.95%
PROFIT £86.07So the starting bank in February was £1359.63, i have increased my bank well this month although am removing the under 1.5 ft version G system as not been making money the last few months. And i don't really need two under 1.5 goals systems.
New trading bank for March( from today as only just finished calculating) will be £1728.16, new liability stakes will be £17.28 -
@james-everard how was Feb?
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@Martin Hopefully now i am entering into my portfolio of strategies the profit will continue i will update at the end of February
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@james-everard really interested to see how those new systems get on, four months of profit is pretty solid.
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Update for January, not a great month slightly down overall ,but hopefully just one of those occasionally poor months and back on track for February
System 1- Back Under 1.5 goals FT Version D ( 3-0-3.55 ODDS)
Trades 9
Won 2
Lost 7
S/rate 22.22%
Lost £33.56System 2 - Back over 1.5 First Half Goals odds 2.42+
Trades 20
Won 7
Lost 13
S/rate 35%
Lost £35.99System 3 - Lay Home at k/0 5.0-7.0 odds range at k/o
Trades 26
Won 22
Lost 4
s/rate 84.61%
Profit £20.46System 5- Back Over 1.5 goals Ft Version G ( 3.75-4.50 odds range)
Trades 19
Won 5
Lost 14
S/rate 26.31%
Profit £11.59So the new bank for February has been reduced down to £1359.63, new 1% liability stakes will be £13.60.
I have been paper trading further systems for a while now, i have 4 months of consecutive profits on a Back the Draw at k/o strategy based on h2h results, Elo difference and league positions with a odds range of 3.80-4.50, i had tightened the filter to this odds range the last two months and based on £10 stakes i would be up £252.06 so i will be implementing this strategy to my portfolio this month.
Another one is laying under 2.5 second half goals at half time, looking for odds 1.30 or below, paper trading since last March and only would have been down on three of those months so i will also be implementing this system, and again based on £10 stakes i would be up £633.16.
And finally the 3 extra system is back under 2.5 goals at Kick off odds range 2.0-2.30 , checking h2h also based on 4 months of testing i would be up £267.99 which i shall be adding also -
Happy new year all, hopefully a profitable 2025 for everyone coming up.
2024 comes to a end a fortunately up again for December results are as follows for December. Based on £12.90 liability stakesSystem 1 - Lay home at K/0 5.0-7.0 ( Check h2h)
Trades 28
won 25
lost 3
s/rate 89.28%
Profit £35.35System 2
Back under 1.5 goals at k/0( h2h based data) 3.75-4.50 odds
Trades 50
Won 12
lost 38
S/rate 24%
Lost £19.00System 3
Back under 1.5 goals Ft version D ( 3..0-3.55 odds) Check h2h
Trades 20
Won 8
Lost 12
S/rate 40%
Profit £90.40So my new bank for January is £1,397.13 , new liability stake at 1% of the bank will be £13.97
I have continued testing various other systems , my injury time goal system that i had previously traded but put on hold in November due a large hit in October , made a profit in November but a very small loss in December.
One of the back the draw systems i have tested for the last two months is looking very promising but i need more data before i potential put into place.
Another system i am adding to my portfolio this month will be Backing over 1.5 First Half Goals odds min 2.42 checking h2h results also.
I have tested since April with a total of 114 results, 54 wins ,lost 60, profit would be £234.63 based on £10 test stakes and the 2% commission -
@Richard-Latimer HI Richard, hope you are well mate?
No i hadn't been recording leagues, but a very good point to add my data analysis as like you say i can the eliminate leagues that aren't performing -
@james-everard have you found it necessary to hold back on certain leagues as yet?
No matter what I do there are always a small smatterng of dud leagues in any angle I'm looking at.
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Afternoon Update for November. Back into a Green month again, based on liability stakes of £12.53
System 1 - Lay Home side at Kick off ( odds 5.0-7.0)
I was looking at around 4.5 odds upwards if h2h stats were in a favour of the away side especially matches for matches where the home side has won a max of 1/5.Trades 17
Won 15
Lost 2
S/rate 88.23%
Profit £17.94System 2 - Back under 1.5 goals Ft version D( 3-0-3.55 odds) check h2h
Trades 11
Won 4
Lost 7
s/rate 36.36%
Profit £19.08So the new bank is £1290.38 , new stakes £12.90 based on 1% of my bank.
I have continued paper trading several other systems and some look promising but want another couple of months of data. Although one system has met my criteria of 6 months of profit of profit each month ,so will be implementing this month.
They are a Back under 1.5 goals system( Version G) based on h2h system odds range 3.75-4.50
Tested so far 311 matches ( based on a £10 test)
Won 101
Lost 210
s/rate 32.47%
Profit to date based on the £10 stakes and a 2% commission would be £833.61I
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@Martin HI Martin i started off last November again with a trading bank of £100 using 1% liability stakes so still have a healthy bank from then. Just hoping it was a one off terrible month on the injury time goal market as every other month has been profitable until then. I want to paper trade this system for November though just incase .
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@james-everard how is it overall?
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HI All update for October , to say it was a disaster was an understatement!
System 1 - Back under 1.5 goals version D
Trades 25
Won 8
Lost 17
S/rate 32%
Lost £12.44System 2 - Lay Home at k/o ( 5.0-7.0) odds
Trades 10
Won 7
Lost 3
S/rate 70%
Lost £21.64System 3 - Injury Time goal ( ent 90mins 1.24 odds or below)
Trades 34
Won 3
Lost 31
s/rate 8.82%
Lost £301.85New bank is now £1253.36 ,new stakes will be £12.53. I am going to paper trade again after such a heavy loss on the injury time goal. Carry on with the other two systems this month
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@Arran-Shackell These odds you will only need just over 20% strike rate to break even, get to 25%-30% make good profits
