MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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@james-everard yeah me too, hopefully a black swan event!
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@Martin Hi Martin i shall have a look later this evening but not good . It was probably the worst weekend of football trading in the 4 1/2 years i have been on Betfair .
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@james-everard I was down 30 points I worked out over the weekend how bad was it for you?
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@Martin said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard doesn't sound like there is any need to throw the baby out with the bathwater to me. You will get big ups and downs with set and forget as the variance is you win or you lose your whole stake.
Hi Martin i had only been trading them a couple of months so probably not enough data to prove they are definitely profitable strategies.
I am going to paper trade various systems until the end of September , and then take it from there hopefully something will stick out. I have some Back under 1.5 goals i have been paper trading 3 different versions will look at the end of the month if any look promising to continue paper trading -
@Akiva-Anderson fair point that!
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@Martin said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@Akiva-Anderson that does seem to be a trend! I think maybe it counter balances like you have a freak weekend and so the results are freaky on other strategies.
Also the lack of matches in the summer leagues play a part. It can take you weeks to recover. May only take a few days to recover when the winter leagues are going because of the sheer volume of matches
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@james-everard doesn't sound like there is any need to throw the baby out with the bathwater to me. You will get big ups and downs with set and forget as the variance is you win or you lose your whole stake.
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@Akiva-Anderson that does seem to be a trend! I think maybe it counter balances like you have a freak weekend and so the results are freaky on other strategies.
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I always fine that if you have more than one strategy and the football is poor, then all your strategies tend to be poor.
I hate the summer leagues.
I use minimal stakes when it comes to trading football over the summer.
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@Martin hi Martin i was doing ok the late goal and back the draw have gone from doing ok previously to really poor this month
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I am going to spend the next two months purely recording data. Take a break from spending hard earned money and hopefully things will come good and i can find something that will be profitable. If nothing promising after this period then i will have to call it a day but i will give it one more chance.
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Thought i would post an update . I have had a absolute disaster this month so much so i am going to have to stop trading everything i have been trading . All the 4 set and forgets i have lost money on and all of my own strategies have failed miserably.
I am sure others have had a bad month also but it is very demoralising , not sure where to go from here any advice please?This happens...dips and troughs...last month on my horses were down 35points, thought about quitting and stopping but had faith that it was just a bad month, so far that has proved correct as so far in July I am back on form at +45points.
I have to be honest I left football alone after World Cup, started again last month and I am -16points so not great after trying the Away Lay system but ......Focus---Plan--Do---Review, you are at the Review stage, we all go in a vicious circle of this!! -
@james-everard how was your trading before this month? Could just be a bad month or is there anything to suggest this is a long term issue?
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Thought i would post an update . I have had a absolute disaster this month so much so i am going to have to stop trading everything i have been trading . All the 4 set and forgets i have lost money on and all of my own strategies have failed miserably.
I am sure others have had a bad month also but it is very demoralising , not sure where to go from here any advice please?My trading has slowed to an absolute crawl over last couple of months and have had some pretty rubbish results.
For me it's all about analysing every single stat now no matter how small. I combine many too.
When my data doesn't find enough previous samples that hit the data points I'm looking at for each game I leave it on amber in my spreadsheet, record the info for a win and rule it out for future until such time as it makes sense to call it an aberration.
It's more complicated, less plug and play and has taken me longer to set things up so I can do this quicker but I'm finding it the only way.
Currently down a little on the year but you get complacent and you get bitten.
Today perfect example. Stromsgodset almost there but combination of some stats and there was a reason to leave it for now. Another under.
Tomorrow when I'm less tired I'll look and see if it makes a good over lay for my mirror system.
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Thought i would post an update . I have had a absolute disaster this month so much so i am going to have to stop trading everything i have been trading . All the 4 set and forgets i have lost money on and all of my own strategies have failed miserably.
I am sure others have had a bad month also but it is very demoralising , not sure where to go from here any advice please? -
@Richard-Latimer said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@Karl-Pick I've had hardly any trades and it's been crap. Even analysing what I would and wouldn't do again it was still the worst month in my data as things stand.
Hopefully now the summer leagues are in full flow after the international break the data for the strategies will start to turn in our favour , if not i will analyse at the end of the month
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@Karl-Pick I've had hardly any trades and it's been crap. Even analysing what I would and wouldn't do again it was still the worst month in my data as things stand.
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@james-everard think June has just not been a good month in both Football and Horse racing, Martins Monthly updates may read a bit dire. But hope springs eternal started July in Football and Racing with a bang, so hopeful of recovery......dips and troughs as we know!!
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Afternoon all , not been on here for a week had a nice short break in lovely Slovenia ( Lake Bled) , what a place to recharge your batteries.
Results not been great for June here is the results breakdown. I have tightened up Martins back over 1.5 system half way through and will give it one more month to see if it improves. The Tomaz version of the lay over 3.5 goals has not been good , others must have had a disaster with this system as well, i have now decided to take out the Singapore league which has had 4 losses.System 1- Tomaz lay over 3.5 goals (odds under 3.50)
Trades 21, won 10, lost 11, s/rate 47.62%, loss of -£31.92System 2- Tomaz lay under 1.5 goals ( odds under 3.50)
Trades 11, won7,lost 4,s/rate 63.64% loss of -£5.89System 3- Martin's back over 1.5 goals ( odds 1.25+)
Trades 16,won 11, lost 5,s/rate 68.75%, loss -£13.47System 4- Back goal last 10mins
Trades 25,won 6,lost 19,s/rate 24% loss -£53.24 . Missed 6 matches though that would have won so would have been profitableSystem 5- Back h2 goal odds 1.36+
Trades 7,won 4 lost 3, s/rate 57.14% , Loss - £ 11.23System 6- Martin's lay away at kick off
Trades 10,won 8, lost 2, s/rate 80%,profit £3.02System 7- Back Draw at kick off odds 3.0 plus
Trades 18, won 7, lost 11, s/rate 38.89% Profit £46.96so overall a monthly loss of -£65.77 , new bank of £352.40 a new liability stake of £7.05
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@james-everard fantastic well done!
