MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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@Martin hi Martin i was doing ok the late goal and back the draw have gone from doing ok previously to really poor this month
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I am going to spend the next two months purely recording data. Take a break from spending hard earned money and hopefully things will come good and i can find something that will be profitable. If nothing promising after this period then i will have to call it a day but i will give it one more chance.
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Thought i would post an update . I have had a absolute disaster this month so much so i am going to have to stop trading everything i have been trading . All the 4 set and forgets i have lost money on and all of my own strategies have failed miserably.
I am sure others have had a bad month also but it is very demoralising , not sure where to go from here any advice please?This happens...dips and troughs...last month on my horses were down 35points, thought about quitting and stopping but had faith that it was just a bad month, so far that has proved correct as so far in July I am back on form at +45points.
I have to be honest I left football alone after World Cup, started again last month and I am -16points so not great after trying the Away Lay system but ......Focus---Plan--Do---Review, you are at the Review stage, we all go in a vicious circle of this!! -
@james-everard how was your trading before this month? Could just be a bad month or is there anything to suggest this is a long term issue?
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Thought i would post an update . I have had a absolute disaster this month so much so i am going to have to stop trading everything i have been trading . All the 4 set and forgets i have lost money on and all of my own strategies have failed miserably.
I am sure others have had a bad month also but it is very demoralising , not sure where to go from here any advice please?My trading has slowed to an absolute crawl over last couple of months and have had some pretty rubbish results.
For me it's all about analysing every single stat now no matter how small. I combine many too.
When my data doesn't find enough previous samples that hit the data points I'm looking at for each game I leave it on amber in my spreadsheet, record the info for a win and rule it out for future until such time as it makes sense to call it an aberration.
It's more complicated, less plug and play and has taken me longer to set things up so I can do this quicker but I'm finding it the only way.
Currently down a little on the year but you get complacent and you get bitten.
Today perfect example. Stromsgodset almost there but combination of some stats and there was a reason to leave it for now. Another under.
Tomorrow when I'm less tired I'll look and see if it makes a good over lay for my mirror system.
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Thought i would post an update . I have had a absolute disaster this month so much so i am going to have to stop trading everything i have been trading . All the 4 set and forgets i have lost money on and all of my own strategies have failed miserably.
I am sure others have had a bad month also but it is very demoralising , not sure where to go from here any advice please? -
@Richard-Latimer said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@Karl-Pick I've had hardly any trades and it's been crap. Even analysing what I would and wouldn't do again it was still the worst month in my data as things stand.
Hopefully now the summer leagues are in full flow after the international break the data for the strategies will start to turn in our favour , if not i will analyse at the end of the month
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@Karl-Pick I've had hardly any trades and it's been crap. Even analysing what I would and wouldn't do again it was still the worst month in my data as things stand.
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@james-everard think June has just not been a good month in both Football and Horse racing, Martins Monthly updates may read a bit dire. But hope springs eternal started July in Football and Racing with a bang, so hopeful of recovery......dips and troughs as we know!!
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Afternoon all , not been on here for a week had a nice short break in lovely Slovenia ( Lake Bled) , what a place to recharge your batteries.
Results not been great for June here is the results breakdown. I have tightened up Martins back over 1.5 system half way through and will give it one more month to see if it improves. The Tomaz version of the lay over 3.5 goals has not been good , others must have had a disaster with this system as well, i have now decided to take out the Singapore league which has had 4 losses.System 1- Tomaz lay over 3.5 goals (odds under 3.50)
Trades 21, won 10, lost 11, s/rate 47.62%, loss of -£31.92System 2- Tomaz lay under 1.5 goals ( odds under 3.50)
Trades 11, won7,lost 4,s/rate 63.64% loss of -£5.89System 3- Martin's back over 1.5 goals ( odds 1.25+)
Trades 16,won 11, lost 5,s/rate 68.75%, loss -£13.47System 4- Back goal last 10mins
Trades 25,won 6,lost 19,s/rate 24% loss -£53.24 . Missed 6 matches though that would have won so would have been profitableSystem 5- Back h2 goal odds 1.36+
Trades 7,won 4 lost 3, s/rate 57.14% , Loss - £ 11.23System 6- Martin's lay away at kick off
Trades 10,won 8, lost 2, s/rate 80%,profit £3.02System 7- Back Draw at kick off odds 3.0 plus
Trades 18, won 7, lost 11, s/rate 38.89% Profit £46.96so overall a monthly loss of -£65.77 , new bank of £352.40 a new liability stake of £7.05
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@james-everard fantastic well done!
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Hi all bit of a late update for Mays results.
Back home to win h2 if drawing - Trades 4, won 4 profit £27.50
Tomaz lay under 1.5 goals - trades 15,won 12, lost 3, s/rate 80% profit £21.53
Martin's Back ov 1.5 goals- Trades 15,won 13,lost 2,s/rate 80% profit £12.93
Martin's lay away at k/o- Trades 3,won 3, lost 1, s/rate 75% loss £0.22p
Tomaz/Martins Lay over 3.5 goals- Trades 8,won 5,lost 3,s/rate 62.50% profit £12.22
Back Draw at Ko- Trades 26, won 7,lost 19,s/rate 26.92% loss -£33.45
Back h2 goal odds 1.35+ Trades 7,won 6,lost 1, s/rate 85.71% profit £13.21Total monthly profit £53.72, new balance £418.17 . New liability stakes of £8.36
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That time again a break down of my trades for April. The Set and forgets wasn't a great month as others have experienced as well but hoping that was because of the end of the regular European seasons and May will be more fruitful.
I gave up with the elo aways not sure if others have been recording the results for this strategy incase it improved or has anyone tracked backing the underdog if notMARTIN'S BACK OVER 1.5 GOALS
TRADES 119
WON 93
LOST 26
S/RATE 78.15%
MONTHLY LOSS £3.47TOMAZ UNDER 1.5 GOALS
TRADES 54
WON 32
LOST 22
S/RATE 59.26%
LOSS OF £47.26Decided to take on my BACK THE DRAW AT KO SET AND FORGET ODDS 3.0 PLUS
Trades 72
Won 23
lost 49
s/rate 31.94%
Profit £13.21Back h2 goal odds 1.36plus
Trades 24
won 18
lost 6
s/rate 75%
profit £19.11So new trading bank for May will be £364.45 and with 2% liability stakes new stakes will be £7.29. I have stopped trading the winter European leagues now until next season, but still have the South American at the moment but won't be long until the summer European leagues also meet the minimum of 10 matches played.
I have been dabbling in some tennis and Darts and find these sports so much easier to trade for my mentality compared to the horses and greyhounds i was previously doing will update on the sports at the end of May -
@james-everard good to see a profit!
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After a total change to my trading this month i decided to follow the advice and paper trade systems and also took on the set and forget systems.
Starting bank was £352.24 with liability stakes of £7.04ELO AWAY LAY SET AND FORGET
Trades 8
Won 2
Lost 6
s/rate 25%
loss -£12.01Martins back over 1.5 goals odds 1.25-1.35
Trades 41
Won 32
Lost 9
S/rate 78.05%
Won £2.06Tomaz lay under 1.5goals (min odds 3.50)
Trades 20
Won 17
Lost 3
S/Rate 85%
Profit £40.37New trading bank will now be £382.86, liability stakes increased to £7.65
Been paper trading several other systems , one of which is quite interesting Back the Draw. Looking for odds above 3.0 at kick off and currently recorded 74 trades and 29 would have won with a strike rate of just over 39, if you could filter down further your selections and get a strike rate nearer to 45% it would make massive profits. Still decent enough at that level
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@chris-osborne You are right , i have Also scrapped the backing under 1.5 1st half goal market need such a high strike rate to be profitable and with variance it won't work
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@chris-osborne Hi Chris i have scrapped the first two from the February results (laying the underdog and also got rid of the late goal one i was paper trading. The main ones are the back under 1.5 fh system and dutching the backing home/draw system. The others have produced hardly any selections to not stress me out with getting over loaded ( 14 Selections from these in the month)
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@james-everard Far too many strategies, focus on one or two
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Feb results
Laying the away underdog if they take the lead
Trades 16
won 6
lost 10
loss of £28.47
s/rate 37.50%Laying the home underdog if they take the lead
Trades 21
won 6
Lost 15
Loss of £90.79
s/rate 28.56%Back under 1.5 First half goals ( filter based on 80% under 1.5 fh goals, also for both home and away sides, aver goals per match less than 2.5 and minimum odds of 1.30 or no trade)
Trades 6
won 6
lost 0
profit £15.93
s/rate 100%Back home(underdog) plus draw ( odds under 2.80 for away team fav)
Trades 39
won 26
lost 13
s/rate 66.66%
Profit £36.90Back away at ht if drawing
Trades 6
won 3
lost 3
s.rate 50%
Profit £31.97Back home to win h1 ( odds 2.28 )
Trades 4
won 2
lost 2
s/rate 50%
Profit £6.73Back home to win h2 if drawing at ht
Trades 4
won2
lost 2
s/rate 50%
lost £0.76Total monthly loss of £26.97 , the new bank is now £352.24, new liability stakes of £7.04
