MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@richard-latimer Interesting i never delved deeply into losing runs and the likely hood of compounding losses. Makes me even more certain now to ditch these set and forgets and stick to the other 3. Cheers for your input interesting to read
I strongly recommend looking at the high numbers. For example I look at the H2H but found the sweet spot is 80%. As soon as you go above that it gets much worse......not better!
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@richard-latimer Interesting i never delved deeply into losing runs and the likely hood of compounding losses. Makes me even more certain now to ditch these set and forgets and stick to the other 3. Cheers for your input interesting to read
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@richard-latimer said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@richard-latimer said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
I’ve been struggling a bit as well so not on your own. Hopefully things will improve with winter leagues now starting back up.
My suggestion would be twofold, reduce stakes but also focus on one or two strategies
If there's one thing I have learnt it's perfect one thing before moving on to the next. I'm currently tracking a lay over 3.5 but until I've perfected the lay under 1.5 tracking is all it will be.
Hi mate i was doing the laying of the underdog as my main strategy but it has so few matches over a course of a month not worth just doing the one system. The 1.5 and 2.5 systems have gone from superb profits to cant win a trade every 1 is losing, it just destroys you as i have spent some much time and effort trying to create winning systems.
I am giving it until the end of the month to decide one way or the other if i will carry on , just a shame i have only recently signed up to another years subscription on here and for Bet Angel, stupidly and naively i thought i had made it!!I know what you mean. You need enough to keep the interest but if you don't mind me asking what are your main parameters of the over 1.5 as it's where my main interest is at present?
Hi mate i am to ditch the 1.5 system , i think i realise last month i got lucky with it as i do a set and forget at odds of 2.28 and obviously with the filter i am looking for a high percentage of goals over 1.5 but the bsp is very low and can often not get matched until 50-55mins , i have to noticed obviously with a high number of average goals you are quite often getting a goal in the 1st half so you end up hoping it to get matched late on instead. With probably most matches having over 1.5 goals before 80mins the likelyhood of me getting one of 20% chance of under 1.5 goals the odds/edge isn't there.
The 2.5 goal system thinking about is going to give me much more of a chance to get matched at the same odds. You normally only have to wait 15-20 mins before it gets matched and i have got to believe i am just going through a bad variance period on the system.
I put a set and forget back over 2.5 goals wait for it to get matched , i am more than happy to share the filter it is belowOverall goals- Greater of equal to 7
Overall matches played- Greater or equal to 10
Overall Percentage over 2.5 goals 70% or greater
Home percentage over 2.5 goals 60% or greater
Away Percentage over 2.5 goals 60% or greater
Overall Goals score per match average - Greater or equal to 2.55
Home goals score per match Ave- Greater or equal to 1
Restrict to current Season
Remove Leagues not on betfair
Scope last 10 matchesThat is the filter but i then delve into each match and check the same opp type percentage is still over 60% if enough matches and also i look at the last 5 h2h matches to check there are more over 2.5 than less
The one thing to beware is if you're looking for odds 2.28 then that's implied probability of 43.9%. Your longeest expected losing streak could be up to 16. You need to allow 5x that losing streak when setting your stake.
The lower the probability the less aggressive you can be with your staking and the more slowly slowly catchy monkey you will have to become.
Also.....and I know not everyone doees this. Take a look at the really high numbers in your filter as much as the lower ones. They don't happen as often, the odds are higher to lay/lower to back (or you will have to wait longer) and just one or two losses when you only have a few selections over months is an easy one to remove. Not so easy to make up.
For example, my parameters never go higher than 3.95 average goals, pretty much never go higher than 2.5 when looking at individual teams (often 2.4).
Plus, at som stage the higher numbers the more you are expecting a return to the mean.
I've noticed it's the exact same looking for games to go under. Don't always look for the lowest numbers. Sometimes it's the high ones which are ripe for the picking!
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Right time to calm down and be rational ,and take some advice from you guys. From the end of last month i have ditched the lcs on 60mins system, i have also now decided to scrap the 1.5 goal system. Paper trade the 2.5 goals system for the remainder of the month and now leaves me 3 systems to trade. The laying of the underdog , laying under 0.5 fh goals and lay unders market on 80mins. Monitor and see how i get on for the remainder of the month cheers for all the support guys
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@richard-latimer said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@richard-latimer said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
I’ve been struggling a bit as well so not on your own. Hopefully things will improve with winter leagues now starting back up.
My suggestion would be twofold, reduce stakes but also focus on one or two strategies
If there's one thing I have learnt it's perfect one thing before moving on to the next. I'm currently tracking a lay over 3.5 but until I've perfected the lay under 1.5 tracking is all it will be.
Hi mate i was doing the laying of the underdog as my main strategy but it has so few matches over a course of a month not worth just doing the one system. The 1.5 and 2.5 systems have gone from superb profits to cant win a trade every 1 is losing, it just destroys you as i have spent some much time and effort trying to create winning systems.
I am giving it until the end of the month to decide one way or the other if i will carry on , just a shame i have only recently signed up to another years subscription on here and for Bet Angel, stupidly and naively i thought i had made it!!I know what you mean. You need enough to keep the interest but if you don't mind me asking what are your main parameters of the over 1.5 as it's where my main interest is at present?
Hi mate i am to ditch the 1.5 system , i think i realise last month i got lucky with it as i do a set and forget at odds of 2.28 and obviously with the filter i am looking for a high percentage of goals over 1.5 but the bsp is very low and can often not get matched until 50-55mins , i have to noticed obviously with a high number of average goals you are quite often getting a goal in the 1st half so you end up hoping it to get matched late on instead. With probably most matches having over 1.5 goals before 80mins the likelyhood of me getting one of 20% chance of under 1.5 goals the odds/edge isn't there.
The 2.5 goal system thinking about is going to give me much more of a chance to get matched at the same odds. You normally only have to wait 15-20 mins before it gets matched and i have got to believe i am just going through a bad variance period on the system.
I put a set and forget back over 2.5 goals wait for it to get matched , i am more than happy to share the filter it is belowOverall goals- Greater of equal to 7
Overall matches played- Greater or equal to 10
Overall Percentage over 2.5 goals 70% or greater
Home percentage over 2.5 goals 60% or greater
Away Percentage over 2.5 goals 60% or greater
Overall Goals score per match average - Greater or equal to 2.55
Home goals score per match Ave- Greater or equal to 1
Restrict to current Season
Remove Leagues not on betfair
Scope last 10 matchesThat is the filter but i then delve into each match and check the same opp type percentage is still over 60% if enough matches and also i look at the last 5 h2h matches to check there are more over 2.5 than less
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@richard-latimer said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
I’ve been struggling a bit as well so not on your own. Hopefully things will improve with winter leagues now starting back up.
My suggestion would be twofold, reduce stakes but also focus on one or two strategies
If there's one thing I have learnt it's perfect one thing before moving on to the next. I'm currently tracking a lay over 3.5 but until I've perfected the lay under 1.5 tracking is all it will be.
Hi mate i was doing the laying of the underdog as my main strategy but it has so few matches over a course of a month not worth just doing the one system. The 1.5 and 2.5 systems have gone from superb profits to cant win a trade every 1 is losing, it just destroys you as i have spent some much time and effort trying to create winning systems.
I am giving it until the end of the month to decide one way or the other if i will carry on , just a shame i have only recently signed up to another years subscription on here and for Bet Angel, stupidly and naively i thought i had made it!!I know what you mean. You need enough to keep the interest but if you don't mind me asking what are your main parameters of the over 1.5 as it's where my main interest is at present?
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@richard-latimer said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
I’ve been struggling a bit as well so not on your own. Hopefully things will improve with winter leagues now starting back up.
My suggestion would be twofold, reduce stakes but also focus on one or two strategies
If there's one thing I have learnt it's perfect one thing before moving on to the next. I'm currently tracking a lay over 3.5 but until I've perfected the lay under 1.5 tracking is all it will be.
Hi mate i was doing the laying of the underdog as my main strategy but it has so few matches over a course of a month not worth just doing the one system. The 1.5 and 2.5 systems have gone from superb profits to cant win a trade every 1 is losing, it just destroys you as i have spent some much time and effort trying to create winning systems.
I am giving it until the end of the month to decide one way or the other if i will carry on , just a shame i have only recently signed up to another years subscription on here and for Bet Angel, stupidly and naively i thought i had made it!! -
Goal based strategies in the Summer Leagues have been a gold mine this year (Superettan and Finnish Veikkausliiga have been amazing). They are quite likely swinging back to their average now. A league doesn't go all season with 3 goals plus per game.
So, to summarise: you have found a couple of good strategies that have stood the test of a few months, you are still in profit. Happy days, I would say, James. -
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@stuart-capstick Hi Stuart its all the good profitable strategies from the last 2-3 months , made a killing on the over 1.5 and 2.5 last month now making a loss . I scrapped the lcs on 60mins at the end of last month as a lot of games for little reward ,and i thought i would be onto a winner with the other 4 systems.
It gets very frustrating when i have been doing this for 4 years, and i then i have finally got there then to be knocked down again it really destroys your mentality and mindset! Two trades again today two losses so from £150 odd quid profit for the month two days ago now £11 profit!
Just hope it turns back in my favour in the next few days and come the end of the month i will be back into decent profit but these losses have you doubting everything again just when i thought i had turned the corner!I know what you mean. Do you mind sharing the parameters of your filter in order that I may see if anything jumps out the way it has on mine?
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@stuart-capstick Hi Stuart its all the good profitable strategies from the last 2-3 months , made a killing on the over 1.5 and 2.5 last month now making a loss . I scrapped the lcs on 60mins at the end of last month as a lot of games for little reward ,and i thought i would be onto a winner with the other 4 systems.
It gets very frustrating when i have been doing this for 4 years, and i then i have finally got there then to be knocked down again it really destroys your mentality and mindset! Two trades again today two losses so from £150 odd quid profit for the month two days ago now £11 profit!
Just hope it turns back in my favour in the next few days and come the end of the month i will be back into decent profit but these losses have you doubting everything again just when i thought i had turned the corner! -
@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
I’ve been struggling a bit as well so not on your own. Hopefully things will improve with winter leagues now starting back up.
My suggestion would be twofold, reduce stakes but also focus on one or two strategies
If there's one thing I have learnt it's perfect one thing before moving on to the next. I'm currently tracking a lay over 3.5 but until I've perfected the lay under 1.5 tracking is all it will be.
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I’ve been struggling a bit as well so not on your own. Hopefully things will improve with winter leagues now starting back up.
My suggestion would be twofold, reduce stakes but also focus on one or two strategies
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Hi James,
I'm sorry to hear that you've had a crap time recently.
I was flying from April and over the past 4 days, I have lost about 20% of the profit I had made. Looking at the data, this isn't abnormal. Up to this weekend, I had had positive variance (clusters of wins). Eventually, there was bound to be a reversion to the mean.
If a strategy has 80% SR, you will lose 20% of the time. That is not variance; that is your system. Variance refers to clusters of positive/negative results that are larger than expected.
You need to work out the SR for your strategies. It may be that they are still fine (average wins match SR).
Is it one strategy that has had a downturn or several? I think you may want to look at your staking. Ideally, split up the bank into however many strategies you have (i.e. 5 strategies, bank of £1,000, means 1 point is £2). This may seem slow and laborious, but it will protect your bank and help avoid the negative feelings when you have a shite run of results.
Whatever, you are still in profit. Don't do anything silly.
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Well i had a feeling in the back of my head that things were going to well , and i did complanate keeping at the same stake level as last month but in the urge inside me told me i have made it here and but oh no typically not.
I started the first week of the month in similar vain over £150 up on the bank then bang every trade since has lost and i have lost £120 in a day and half.
Now my confidence has shot to bits and starting to think is this really worth while , i am giving it until the end of the month to see if things level out but if i have made a heavy loss come the end of August the end of trading for me.I know it's a bit crap only posting after a loss and it's the one thing someone else did really used to annoy me. Wondering if you have given consideration to the odds you take though and the longest expected losing streak based on those odds and likely probability?
For example 35% s/r has a longest expected losing streaking of 21 in 1000 bets. Meaning you can't be as aggressive in staking.
The advice I read was that you need to allow for longest expected losing streak x5 to protect your bank.
Obviously not all your systems are low odds. For that reason I would be looking at variable staking or definitely lays as opposed to backing so that the highest probability trades are the ones with the highest liability.
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Well i had a feeling in the back of my head that things were going to well , and i did complanate keeping at the same stake level as last month but in the urge inside me told me i have made it here and but oh no typically not.
I started the first week of the month in similar vain over £150 up on the bank then bang every trade since has lost and i have lost £120 in a day and half.
Now my confidence has shot to bits and starting to think is this really worth while , i am giving it until the end of the month to see if things level out but if i have made a heavy loss come the end of August the end of trading for me. -
@richard-latimer Cheers mate think i will hold off the lcs on 60mins and work on a better system and leave the other 4 systems going
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Glad it's working anyway mate!
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@richard-latimer said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
High all as promised my July results which proved my best month to date. It has taken me ages to manually add the results that i had but managed to devote a few hours last night and an hour this evening to calculate the results.
My starting bank for July was £436.78 and with stakes of 2% of this meaning my stakes were £8.75 liability.System 1 - Laying the underdog
Trades 14
Won 5
Lost 9
strike rate 35.71%
Loss of -£15.61
Points loss -3.09System 2- lCS ON 60mins (odds below 3.45) if no goal in second half
Trades 86
Won 58
Lost 27
strike rate 68.60%
Profit £16.09
Points profit 1.84System 3- Back late goal split stake last 10 mins
Trades 24
Won 8
Lost 16
Strike/rate 33.33%
Profit £13.29
Points Profit 1.52System 3- Back over 1.5 goals set and forget odds 2.28
Trades 21
Won 13
Lost 8
Strike rate 61.90%
Profit £76.14
Profit 8.70System 4- Lcs for ht on 30 mins split stake
Trades 35
Won 13
Lost 22
Strike rate 37.14%
Profit £4.78
Points profit 0.54System 5- Back over 2.5 goals set and forget odds 2.28
Trades 52
Won 31
Lost 21
Strike rate 59.62%
Profit £157.32
Points profit 17.98My new trading bank for August is £689.09 and my new stakes starting tomorrow will be £13.78.
Excellent work. I presume the lower profit systems normally produce much better otherwise I would stick to the overs haha!
Hi Mate yes the lcs on 60mins last month made £33.50 in june , only 19 matches and a strike rate of 78.95%. But a lot more trades and half the profit this month. I was noticing a lot of my matches on my filter had goals earlier between 45-60mins which meant no trade , so with my filter of needing a second half goal with goals going in these time periods meaning the chance of no second half goal in the other matches increases so something i think i will have to look at adapting. Either going in at half time or a couple of mins after but odds could be over 4 on some matches , or i could adapt the filter so i go in at 70mins with lower odds something to think over.
The laying of the underdog wasn;'t great but saying that today i had a nice win on a Argentinian league match , also thinking of split staking this strategy so not putting all my eggs in the basket on laying the underdog, for two reasons incase they underdog gets a second goal or the hope of a late equaliser -
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
High all as promised my July results which proved my best month to date. It has taken me ages to manually add the results that i had but managed to devote a few hours last night and an hour this evening to calculate the results.
My starting bank for July was £436.78 and with stakes of 2% of this meaning my stakes were £8.75 liability.System 1 - Laying the underdog
Trades 14
Won 5
Lost 9
strike rate 35.71%
Loss of -£15.61
Points loss -3.09System 2- lCS ON 60mins (odds below 3.45) if no goal in second half
Trades 86
Won 58
Lost 27
strike rate 68.60%
Profit £16.09
Points profit 1.84System 3- Back late goal split stake last 10 mins
Trades 24
Won 8
Lost 16
Strike/rate 33.33%
Profit £13.29
Points Profit 1.52System 3- Back over 1.5 goals set and forget odds 2.28
Trades 21
Won 13
Lost 8
Strike rate 61.90%
Profit £76.14
Profit 8.70System 4- Lcs for ht on 30 mins split stake
Trades 35
Won 13
Lost 22
Strike rate 37.14%
Profit £4.78
Points profit 0.54System 5- Back over 2.5 goals set and forget odds 2.28
Trades 52
Won 31
Lost 21
Strike rate 59.62%
Profit £157.32
Points profit 17.98My new trading bank for August is £689.09 and my new stakes starting tomorrow will be £13.78.
Excellent work. I presume the lower profit systems normally produce much better otherwise I would stick to the overs haha!
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High all as promised my July results which proved my best month to date. It has taken me ages to manually add the results that i had but managed to devote a few hours last night and an hour this evening to calculate the results.
My starting bank for July was £436.78 and with stakes of 2% of this meaning my stakes were £8.75 liability.System 1 - Laying the underdog
Trades 14
Won 5
Lost 9
strike rate 35.71%
Loss of -£15.61
Points loss -3.09System 2- lCS ON 60mins (odds below 3.45) if no goal in second half
Trades 86
Won 58
Lost 27
strike rate 68.60%
Profit £16.09
Points profit 1.84System 3- Back late goal split stake last 10 mins
Trades 24
Won 8
Lost 16
Strike/rate 33.33%
Profit £13.29
Points Profit 1.52System 3- Back over 1.5 goals set and forget odds 2.28
Trades 21
Won 13
Lost 8
Strike rate 61.90%
Profit £76.14
Profit 8.70System 4- Lcs for ht on 30 mins split stake
Trades 35
Won 13
Lost 22
Strike rate 37.14%
Profit £4.78
Points profit 0.54System 5- Back over 2.5 goals set and forget odds 2.28
Trades 52
Won 31
Lost 21
Strike rate 59.62%
Profit £157.32
Points profit 17.98My new trading bank for August is £689.09 and my new stakes starting tomorrow will be £13.78.
