MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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@james-everard good to see a profit!
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After a total change to my trading this month i decided to follow the advice and paper trade systems and also took on the set and forget systems.
Starting bank was £352.24 with liability stakes of £7.04ELO AWAY LAY SET AND FORGET
Trades 8
Won 2
Lost 6
s/rate 25%
loss -£12.01Martins back over 1.5 goals odds 1.25-1.35
Trades 41
Won 32
Lost 9
S/rate 78.05%
Won £2.06Tomaz lay under 1.5goals (min odds 3.50)
Trades 20
Won 17
Lost 3
S/Rate 85%
Profit £40.37New trading bank will now be £382.86, liability stakes increased to £7.65
Been paper trading several other systems , one of which is quite interesting Back the Draw. Looking for odds above 3.0 at kick off and currently recorded 74 trades and 29 would have won with a strike rate of just over 39, if you could filter down further your selections and get a strike rate nearer to 45% it would make massive profits. Still decent enough at that level
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@chris-osborne You are right , i have Also scrapped the backing under 1.5 1st half goal market need such a high strike rate to be profitable and with variance it won't work
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@chris-osborne Hi Chris i have scrapped the first two from the February results (laying the underdog and also got rid of the late goal one i was paper trading. The main ones are the back under 1.5 fh system and dutching the backing home/draw system. The others have produced hardly any selections to not stress me out with getting over loaded ( 14 Selections from these in the month)
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@james-everard Far too many strategies, focus on one or two
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Feb results
Laying the away underdog if they take the lead
Trades 16
won 6
lost 10
loss of £28.47
s/rate 37.50%Laying the home underdog if they take the lead
Trades 21
won 6
Lost 15
Loss of £90.79
s/rate 28.56%Back under 1.5 First half goals ( filter based on 80% under 1.5 fh goals, also for both home and away sides, aver goals per match less than 2.5 and minimum odds of 1.30 or no trade)
Trades 6
won 6
lost 0
profit £15.93
s/rate 100%Back home(underdog) plus draw ( odds under 2.80 for away team fav)
Trades 39
won 26
lost 13
s/rate 66.66%
Profit £36.90Back away at ht if drawing
Trades 6
won 3
lost 3
s.rate 50%
Profit £31.97Back home to win h1 ( odds 2.28 )
Trades 4
won 2
lost 2
s/rate 50%
Profit £6.73Back home to win h2 if drawing at ht
Trades 4
won2
lost 2
s/rate 50%
lost £0.76Total monthly loss of £26.97 , the new bank is now £352.24, new liability stakes of £7.04
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Hi All, after a terrible run on my laying of the underdog if they take the lead i have decided to scrap altogether and started looking at different way of trading.
looking the opposite way but with a different filter all based on odds. At the end of the day trading is about trying to find a edge in the market where you believe the odds are favourable.
So i am dutching only the home/draw where the favourite odds are too low and basically backing the draw and underdog. I am further looking at the selections from the filters further based on h2h and same oppo type.
Also been trading some other markets and feel so much more confident now that i will start progressing results will be updated shortly
i was paper trading the late goal this month which would have lost loads so that is finally shelved -
@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Also be useful to run through back testing when available
the exact reason I'm not deleting anything!
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Also be useful to run through back testing when available
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@martin Hi Martin i have deleted the filter , i may look at reinstating just paper trading the system i don't want to trade any money on the system.
Hopefully the other systems will be profitable this month -
@james-everard may be worth monitoring rather than totally scrapping it
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Right spent the last two evenings recording my results for January. As feared the late goal 70 plus mins went from doing ok to a totally down turn over the last two weekends. Other strategies weren't so bad as feared and i think my head went with all these losses on this system and perhaps looking back i should have stopped trading the system after this Saturday but lesson learnt.
System 1- Lay unders market on 74mins
Trades 77
Won 28
Lost 49
Loss £47.04System 2 - Lay the away underdog
Trades 8
Won 5
Lost 3
Loss £3.22System 3 - Late goal last 10mins split stake
Trades 12
Won 3
Lost 9
Profit £0.54pSystem 4 - Lay the Home underdog
Trades 13
Won 9
Lost 4
Profit £50.40after all that i made a whopping £0.68p profit. So the start of January the bank was £378.53 , new trading bank is £379.21 and at liab stakes of £7.58.
I will scrap the the late goal 70 plus system and keep the others . -
Not a good December , with a monthly loss of £82.06. My new trading bank £378.53. New liability stakes reduced to £7.57. Although towards the end of last month things have started to improve and the start of this month has been ok , so positive thinking i can turn the tide and get back to 3 months ago where is was doing ok
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Quick update for November , will do a breakdown of the results when i get time. But certainly another poor month so much so the late goal 80plus mins has been omitted and will only trade the summer leagues which proved profitable over the summer.
Monthly loss for the Month -£150.66
New trading bank of £460.59
New stakes £9.21Will see how December goes with the laying of the underdog system, this is the only system to be traded in December , fingers crossed a turn around next month.
Just clearing my paperwork and forgot to record the breakdown of Novembers results, the breakdown is as follows
Laying of the home underdog
Trades 7
Won 2
lost 5
S.rate 28.57%
Profit - £34.58
Points profit 2.84System 2 - Laying of away underdog
trades 12
won 5
Lost 7
s/rate 41.67%
loss -£55.12
Points loss - 4.52System 3
Late goal 80 plus mins
Trades 19
Won 3
Lost 11
s/rate 21.43%
points loss -9.72
Loss of -£118.56System 4 - No late goal last 10 matches
Trades 19
won 14
lost 5
s/rate 73.68%
Loss -£11.56
Points loss -0.95I have got involved in different systems this month and will post my results at the end of the month.
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@james-everard no on that one I enter at 59 mins but I'm tracking the goal stats of it, the SHG filter looks good for this entry I've tested half the games not a massive sample size but there is a goal after 69 mins around 60%, after 59 mins it's around 79%!
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@martin said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard I'm looking at 69mins as a potentially better entry point, need to get some stats actually on last goal time
Hi Martin , i have watched the video and was going to amend my filter i had for the late goal +80mins to your entry time suggestion. But is the filter you use the saved members filter "going for a late goal any scorline" ?
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@james-everard I'm looking at 69mins as a potentially better entry point, need to get some stats actually on last goal time
