MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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@james-everard have a look at the main football thread before you do anything, a number in the same boat
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@richard-latimer said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Are they low odds? If you take low odds you will get long losing streaks even from profitable strategies.
Yes on the late goal strategy i split the stakes over 4 on 81,85,88 and 90+1 mins the first lay on the next goal market is normally max 1.6- 1.75. Think though i have managed just 1 win and that was only a small win as that came in the 83rd min. The filter picks matches with overall scored in 60% of matches have a goal 80+mins but the strike rate this month must be around 5% !!
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Are they low odds? If you take low odds you will get long losing streaks even from profitable strategies.
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@dan-mackinnon said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard I had something similar earlier this month. Bank got cut by 1/3 and I was so annoyed with myself. Exactly the same as you said, felt like I had cracked it and was even considering putting more money into the bank to get things growing quicker.
Since then I've sat back and analysed what went wrong. For me it was being greedy and as a result overstaking. The signs of greed were obvious when you think "I've made it" or "let's start upping the bank" and you think more about how you're going to spend the money than minimising risk.
The positive is, you've already proved to yourself you can get that money back and all is not lost. Like Richard said, remember what you started with and you can see you're making progress. When you figure out where you went wrong, go a little slow and steady until you get back into the groove and I'm sure you'll make that money back in no time and feel more in control when you do.
I definitely think that is the biggest barrier between decent hobby/ part time traders vs full time pros.
Best of luck mate!
Thanks for your reply mate , laying the underdog system i am going to only trades matches where the underdog is winning on 75mins that was where most of my profit has come from on the system.
The late goal 80+ mins i can't believe how much this system is down , although the ones that do win seem to be games i have not been able to trade and tend to be injury time goals!, think i have only won one trade this month on the system! -
Within a year you quadrupled your bank- amazing.
Even after the recent set-back, your bank is still 250% greater.
James, you have had a huge rise in profit. May be you have experienced a correction.
Either way, look at the positive. Most people would kill to have that profitability after one year.
Whatever, don't start messing around with criteria unless you have reached half your maximum drawdown. -
Is it specific leagues or across the board. For example Scandinavian leagues have been troublesome of late as there seasons draw to a close.
By all means send me your spreadsheet and I’ll have a look
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@richard-latimer Started a year ago back with a £200 bank and got upto £857.12 ( increasing my staking each month based on 2% of my new bank ), now lost £300 of that within 2 weeks not sure where to go from here now lost all confidence in the systems
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@chris-osborne Yes but i'm not exaggerating every trade i have done has lost and the ones i missed would have won ie just popped to the shops and D Zagreb got a 94min goal in my late goal system which would have won me over £100 !!!
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@james-everard I had something similar earlier this month. Bank got cut by 1/3 and I was so annoyed with myself. Exactly the same as you said, felt like I had cracked it and was even considering putting more money into the bank to get things growing quicker.
Since then I've sat back and analysed what went wrong. For me it was being greedy and as a result overstaking. The signs of greed were obvious when you think "I've made it" or "let's start upping the bank" and you think more about how you're going to spend the money than minimising risk.
The positive is, you've already proved to yourself you can get that money back and all is not lost. Like Richard said, remember what you started with and you can see you're making progress. When you figure out where you went wrong, go a little slow and steady until you get back into the groove and I'm sure you'll make that money back in no time and feel more in control when you do.
I definitely think that is the biggest barrier between decent hobby/ part time traders vs full time pros.
Best of luck mate!
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Wow big lesson NEVER THINK YOU HAVE MADE IT!!!
I thought i had finally made trading after 4 years on Btc. Several months of building my bank nicely , has been totally destroyed within 2 weeks of this month.
I thought last week must have just been a bad weekend and variance has played its part,
I thought give it this weekend before i start panicking but if possible this weekend has been even worse. I really don't know where to go from here now just really disappointed and pissed off after all the hard work which meant nothing in the end !
Gutted is an understament!!! From a bank of £857.12 , in two weeks i have lost £300!!What did you start with though? I had a horrendous last couple of weeks, analysed a couple of things, and fingers crossed have found an area to improve.
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Wow big lesson NEVER THINK YOU HAVE MADE IT!!!
I thought i had finally made trading after 4 years on Btc. Several months of building my bank nicely , has been totally destroyed within 2 weeks of this month.
I thought last week must have just been a bad weekend and variance has played its part,
I thought give it this weekend before i start panicking but if possible this weekend has been even worse. I really don't know where to go from here now just really disappointed and pissed off after all the hard work which meant nothing in the end !
Gutted is an understament!!! From a bank of £857.12 , in two weeks i have lost £300!!A lot of us had a bad weekend last week,
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Wow big lesson NEVER THINK YOU HAVE MADE IT!!!
I thought i had finally made trading after 4 years on Btc. Several months of building my bank nicely , has been totally destroyed within 2 weeks of this month.
I thought last week must have just been a bad weekend and variance has played its part,
I thought give it this weekend before i start panicking but if possible this weekend has been even worse. I really don't know where to go from here now just really disappointed and pissed off after all the hard work which meant nothing in the end !
Gutted is an understament!!! From a bank of £857.12 , in two weeks i have lost £300!! -
Cheers Chris. Just taken me nearly 4 years to realise less is more . No point in me taking on half a dozen strategies to be overwhelmed on a Weekend and concentrate on two systems that have proved profitable month on month . Once the bank increases , so does the stakes and it doesn't take as long as you think to build your bank.
One word for any newbies this has taken a while , if i had listened to advice from the beginning i would have not lost fortunes at the outset. Stick to one or max two strategies and if you dont want to paper trade use £1 minimum stakes, record your results and hopefully you will find a edge in the market without blowing bank after bank.
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@james-everard Cracking set of results
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Afternoon all update for September. Much quieter month with summer leagues coming to a conclusion and winter leagues not having enough data( min of 10 matches overall played). Although today i have a few leagues now meet the minimum requirement so many more matches on my potential filters for October.
As discussed before i am now sticking to two strategies that have been profitable month on month now , laying the underdog if they take the lead and also the last 10 mins goal system.
My balance before at the end of August was £652.10 with stakes of £13.04 ( but these i do as 4 splits to enhance profit)
Here are the results for SeptemberLaying the underdog if they take the lead
Total trades 24
Won 12
lost 12
s/rate 50%
profit £151.21
points profit 11.60Breakdown of the above system
Laying home underdog
Trades 10
won 4
lost 6
s/rate 40%
Profit £98.75
points 7.58Laying away underdog
Trades 14
won 8
lost 6
s/rate 57.14%
Profit £52.46
points 4.02System 2 - Late goal last 10mins ( split over 4 stakes on 81,85,88 and 91mins)
Trades 6
won 3
lost 3
s/rate 50%
profit £ 53.80
points 4.13So overall profit for the month of September was £201.01 , so my new balance is £857.11 and new stakes of 2% of the bank now being £17.14
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@james-everard yeah won't be long before that big winter league boost in selections!
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A couple of losing trades in the last couple of days , but still healthily uo so far this month. Never seen so little trades on the possibility list for the weekend, and maybe even less if any of the leagues mentioned by others the other day are on the list ( i haven't removed the leagues , as i know i will forget to reinstate them when they resume next season) but made notes on the leagues to avoid.
Looking at the league tables within 2 weeks the winter leagues will have played 10 matches and some may appear on my filters. I see the Championship has played 9, Leagues 1&2 have played 8 along with most of the european leagues . The best news now finally is i think the mentality is now set and it doesn;t bother me there is nothing to trade and i am just finding other things to occupy my time whilst in a slow period of trading. -
Morning all , update from yesterday's trades
I traded two matches in my late goal strategy, with this system i split the stakes in 4 , of £3.26 stakes on 81,85.88 and 90+1 mins. I had one winner and one loser yesterday
The Losing trade was the Colombian A match which i layed under 0.5 goals and the matched ended 0-0 so a loss of £13.04.
The winning trade was in the South Korean K1 match between Seoul vs Suwon City, the score on entry was 2-1 and the final score was 2-2 with a 94min equaliser that won me £41.51.And i had one trade on laying of the underdog if they take the lead , this was a loss but i only trade 1/2 a point on this match in the Lithuanian A match between DZiugas Telsiai vs Suduva . I was annoyed with myself on this trade as i shouldn't have traded , i checked the lineups and the away side which was the favourite was missing the top two goal scorers the match ended 2-1 to the underdog. So a loss of £6.52 on this trade
A have 9 matches on my filters today 8 laying the undedog and 1 late goal , will update this evening how i get on good luck all today with your trading
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Been a quiet month on the trading so far with the winter leagues not meeting my minimum of 10 matches played and for some reason there have been very few matches from the summer leagues meeting the criteria to trade.
Only my 3rd and 4th trades of the month this evening ,i had a nice winner this evening on laying the underdog in the Irish Div 1 with Galway getting a 96min equaliser to boost the bank nicely with a profit of £98.12.
The weekends tend to produce a few more matches than midweek and a few games are on my two filters for tomorrow.
I am going to try to be like Richard a bit more and update my blog more regularly to help me keep myself motivated and accountable . -
@dan-mackinnon Sorry Guys
