MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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Thought it was time for me to follow in the footsteps of others and start my own personal trading blog to help me track where i am going right or wrong ,and hopefully have some feedback from you guys regards to any improvements i can make.
I have had some personally issues i have been dealing with over the last couple of months but feel in a much better place now. During this period it has allowed me to try to change my gambling habits and i feel much more controlled now. So now is the time for me to be try and be part again of this fantastic forum and bounce ideas off each other again.
I have been trading the last couple of weeks on greyhound racing ( i know not everyone's cup of tea) in the evening which so far on the strategy i am working on seems to be paying dividends for the last 2 weeks i have been doing the system.
I have also a few football strategies i am working on , the best i feel will be ltd , back over 1.5 goals at ht and the late goal strategies. These three football systems i believe with a few tweaks here and there will be good systems.
The way i trade now is i don't lay odds above 3.0 anything above effects my mindset . On the ltd i think i may need some advice please i was going in around the 60min mark when odds are below 2.38 and then split staking the lays on 70 and 85mins . What i am finding though especially yesterday that there are a lot of goal scored between 45-60mins . When people trade the ltd do they do 100% stake at half time irrespective of the odds and if so what is the max odds they go for or do you split stake ? It is great the system when you get a 88th min winner but will the matches that have goal between 45-60mins profits outweigh this ? -
Happy new year all, hopefully a profitable 2025 for everyone coming up.
2024 comes to a end a fortunately up again for December results are as follows for December. Based on £12.90 liability stakesSystem 1 - Lay home at K/0 5.0-7.0 ( Check h2h)
Trades 28
won 25
lost 3
s/rate 89.28%
Profit £35.35System 2
Back under 1.5 goals at k/0( h2h based data) 3.75-4.50 odds
Trades 50
Won 12
lost 38
S/rate 24%
Lost £19.00System 3
Back under 1.5 goals Ft version D ( 3..0-3.55 odds) Check h2h
Trades 20
Won 8
Lost 12
S/rate 40%
Profit £90.40So my new bank for January is £1,397.13 , new liability stake at 1% of the bank will be £13.97
I have continued testing various other systems , my injury time goal system that i had previously traded but put on hold in November due a large hit in October , made a profit in November but a very small loss in December.
One of the back the draw systems i have tested for the last two months is looking very promising but i need more data before i potential put into place.
Another system i am adding to my portfolio this month will be Backing over 1.5 First Half Goals odds min 2.42 checking h2h results also.
I have tested since April with a total of 114 results, 54 wins ,lost 60, profit would be £234.63 based on £10 test stakes and the 2% commission -
@Richard-Latimer HI Richard, hope you are well mate?
No i hadn't been recording leagues, but a very good point to add my data analysis as like you say i can the eliminate leagues that aren't performing -
@james-everard have you found it necessary to hold back on certain leagues as yet?
No matter what I do there are always a small smatterng of dud leagues in any angle I'm looking at.
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Afternoon Update for November. Back into a Green month again, based on liability stakes of £12.53
System 1 - Lay Home side at Kick off ( odds 5.0-7.0)
I was looking at around 4.5 odds upwards if h2h stats were in a favour of the away side especially matches for matches where the home side has won a max of 1/5.Trades 17
Won 15
Lost 2
S/rate 88.23%
Profit £17.94System 2 - Back under 1.5 goals Ft version D( 3-0-3.55 odds) check h2h
Trades 11
Won 4
Lost 7
s/rate 36.36%
Profit £19.08So the new bank is £1290.38 , new stakes £12.90 based on 1% of my bank.
I have continued paper trading several other systems and some look promising but want another couple of months of data. Although one system has met my criteria of 6 months of profit of profit each month ,so will be implementing this month.
They are a Back under 1.5 goals system( Version G) based on h2h system odds range 3.75-4.50
Tested so far 311 matches ( based on a £10 test)
Won 101
Lost 210
s/rate 32.47%
Profit to date based on the £10 stakes and a 2% commission would be £833.61I
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@Martin HI Martin i started off last November again with a trading bank of £100 using 1% liability stakes so still have a healthy bank from then. Just hoping it was a one off terrible month on the injury time goal market as every other month has been profitable until then. I want to paper trade this system for November though just incase .
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@james-everard how is it overall?
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HI All update for October , to say it was a disaster was an understatement!
System 1 - Back under 1.5 goals version D
Trades 25
Won 8
Lost 17
S/rate 32%
Lost £12.44System 2 - Lay Home at k/o ( 5.0-7.0) odds
Trades 10
Won 7
Lost 3
S/rate 70%
Lost £21.64System 3 - Injury Time goal ( ent 90mins 1.24 odds or below)
Trades 34
Won 3
Lost 31
s/rate 8.82%
Lost £301.85New bank is now £1253.36 ,new stakes will be £12.53. I am going to paper trade again after such a heavy loss on the injury time goal. Carry on with the other two systems this month
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@Arran-Shackell These odds you will only need just over 20% strike rate to break even, get to 25%-30% make good profits
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Great idea laying at those odds.
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@Arran-Shackell Yes mate enter on 90mins or when laying the next goals odds are down to 1.24 or below
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I have checked my other paper trading strategies and i feel i am comfortable with enough data on one of them at this stage so will add another strategy to my filters from tomorrow.
It is a back under 1.5 goals filter (version D)
I have 600 trades of data since February , won 213,lost 387 ,s/rate of 35.5% profit based on £10 stakes is £724.90.
The others i will carry on paper trading so i have more data -
That injury time goal looks like a good one. Do you enter at 90 minutes?
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Update for September
System 1 - Lay home at k/o 5-7.0 odds check h2h
Trades 5
won 5
lost 0
s/rate 100%
profit £17.16System 2 - Injury time goal version B( Based on last 5 matches)
Trades 24
won 6
lost 18
s/rate 25%
Profit £124.24New trading bank is £1589.29 , new 1% liability stakes £15.89.
I am possibly going to start to other systems this month , i will analyse the results this evening and post later on
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@james-everard well done mate! Another great update.
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Evening an update for August for the two systems i have been trading again another profitable month. The starting bank was £1104.39 using 1% liability stakes (£11.04)
LAY HOME AT KICKOFF (ODDS 5.0-7.0, CHECK H2H)
TRADES 14
WON 13
LOST 1
S/RATE 92.86%
PROFIT £ 22.42BACK INJURY TIME GOAL VERSION B( ENTER 90MINS ,BASED ON LAST 5 MATCHES)
TRADES 40
WON 13
LOST 27
S/RATE 32.50%
PROFIT £320.62The new bank for September is £1447.43 and new 1% liability stakes of £14.47
I have several other systems i have been paper trading over the last few months and quite a few are looking promising to potential enter to my trading profile.
I am going away to the USA next week for 10 days so i have decided to carry on paper trading these this month, and i just need to confirm the previous months analysis so will review again at the end of the month. Although i won't have data from the period i am away -
The issue is that as Akiva has said, there are fewer games, meaning variance has more of an effect. That can work both ways: a few years ago there was a period in the summer where everything I did paid off and I was convinced I was a trading god. It was just positive variance, as the subsequent autumn showed.
The fewer the games, the more your results will be skewed by variance, in both directions.
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Most football traders make their money on the winter leagues. Summer leagues are fine, but there just isn't the volume of matches
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@Alex-Rendell said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@Simon-Bates I personally have had an alright summer; slow but steady due to an obvious lack of matches being played (which may also have caused 'unusual' losses in some people's otherwise successful strategies - fewer results = higher risk of short-term variance). Just need to get the first two infuriatingly inconvenient international breaks out of the way and we'll be back into the swings of things around October/November time!
HI Alex what systems are you trading and finding ok in the Summer months please?
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@Simon-Bates said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@Alex-Rendell I was down £20.29 in June from 119 games, up £15.25 in July from 116 games, down a fiver in 2 months, hopefully like you say it'll pick up in next few months with more and more winter leagues starting back up and more filter results.
8 games into the start of the new seasons should be around 2nd week October ish, then we can all get back to profiting again from our strategies.I too wait for 8 games minimum from the start of the system before i trade , learnt from others on here for that and it is the sensible thing to do. I am sure things will pick up soon enough
