MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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@eamonn-hogan said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
what is the ltd strategy you are using James out of curiousity?
HI Eammon, here is my filter mate
Overall Matches played 10 or greater
Home matches played 5 or greater
Away matches played 5 or greater
Overall drew - less/equal to 6
Home Team drew- less than equal to 5
Away team drew- Less than equal to 5
Overall drew percentage - less than/equal to 20%
Away drew percentage - less than/equal to 20%
Home Drew Percentage - less than/equal to 20%
Betfair draw odds - less than 5.0
I also check the h2h fulltime results between the two sides (last 5 matches) and max of 1 match has been a draw -
@stuart-capstick Ok thanks Stuart will take that into account then, cheers on the mend now looking forward to the gym next month been off since last March
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what is the ltd strategy you are using James out of curiousity?
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@james-everard Its not to do with your filters or ability to pick good games. We all have losses. With something with only three outcomes there is a good chance that outcome could be overly in favour one week and not the next. So we could see an above average amount of draw one weekend. If you just have one ltd strat it will be an acceptable loss. If you have more than one ltd strat, im not talking about overlapping games im talking about all the ltds in all the games your then compounding that loss and as a result your bank will have a much bigger impact to that above average week of draws. Bigger hit to bank. What me and stuart are advising is diversifying markets and strategies. So say we have a pre match ltd and SHG strats. One week we have an above average amount of scored draws. That means that yes your ltd took a hit but your SHG will have still been normal. This gets compounded for the better the more variety you have. However dont just add willy nilly, make sure they are good variations and high quality strats. For this example id probably choose over time with data between your own version and stuarts.
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Glad you getting better mate
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@stuart-capstick said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
No, that's fine, James. What I meant was, if you have two LTDs and they overlap a great deal. Effectively, your losses are compounded far more than any winnings are in terms of the effect on your bank.
If you have two LTDs and they are hitting different games, or focussing on different factors, and they don't overlap, you'll still be hit by variance, but it would be far less of a hit.
SPOT ON, kind of what we both meant worded better
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No, that's fine, James. What I meant was, if you have two LTDs and they overlap a great deal. Effectively, your losses are compounded far more than any winnings are in terms of the effect on your bank.
If you have two LTDs and they are hitting different games, or focussing on different factors, and they don't overlap, you'll still be hit by variance, but it would be far less of a hit.
Glad to hear you are OK.
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@stuart-capstick said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Darri makes a good point about diversification. I had about 5 profitable LTD strategies but all it takes is an odd weekend and you can lose a hefty chunk. I now only use those that are looking at different variables, e.g one or two on price, one on home form, one on away form etc. I tend to find fewer overlapping games that way
Far better to combine LTD with an under/over or lay home/away. Yes, they may clash, but logically if one goes awry, the other compensates. In other words, if there are several draws, it means any lay home strategy has won.
Hi mate my own set and forget ltd strangely rarely picks up the same matches as your lists do , will have a think about if i can adapt mine into another strategy but has been profitable the 3 months recording so far
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@stuart-capstick said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
If you are following "my" LTD, it's better to lay the night before. More often than not, you can lay below the offered price and get matched.
Yes mate , one of the ltd is yours which from now on will place the night before from now on
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@martin-futter said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard hope you are ok mate, what happened?
Very accident prone mate done my ankle in ligament damage thought it was broken at the time on the mend now though looking forward to getting back the gym
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Darri makes a good point about diversification. I had about 5 profitable LTD strategies but all it takes is an odd weekend and you can lose a hefty chunk. I now only use those that are looking at different variables, e.g one or two on price, one on home form, one on away form etc. I tend to find fewer overlapping games that way
Far better to combine LTD with an under/over or lay home/away. Yes, they may clash, but logically if one goes awry, the other compensates. In other words, if there are several draws, it means any lay home strategy has won.
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I tend to have a few overlapping games on the strategies I run. I only trade them on one strategy. Yes, I may miss out on extra profit, but, less is more...
The other thing is, I hope you are OK, James.
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If you are following "my" LTD, it's better to lay the night before. More often than not, you can lay below the offered price and get matched.
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@james-everard hope you are ok mate, what happened?
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Thanks guys for your replies. I had an accident a few weeks back so not mobile which has meant my weekends and evenings i have spent a lot of time trading , like you say far too much trading. I will hopefully will be more mobile by June and then trading will not be taking a lot less of my time.
I will from now on not try to get that extra tick as like you say it won't pay off long term.
The max liability stakes on each trade is £2 so my bank never takes a huge loss, the ltd systems will never include the same teams so not compounding the potential losses.
Catch up soon off to bed now early start with work thanks again -
@james-everard Am i right here in thinking you have done 689 trades over all 5 strategies in april, thats an average of 22 trades a day?! If so, thats honestly far too much. Id expect your not nearly as efficient with these as you could be. The thing is i get why your wanting to be on more. We have an edge we want to ride it. But starting out in trading id not recommend it. Yes potentially when your well into this and can spot opportunities almost robotically but not when still learning.
Firstly why are you starting with 5 strategies, i can imagine the outlay of your bank here could be quite large? Secondly 3 of them on the same market is risk. All it would take is a couple of weekends with a large amount of draws and all 3 would be hitting your bank hard regardless of staking. There isnt really any diversification here which is the only reason people should have more than one strategy at this.
Taking one tick below a price is a common thing at first but its honestly tediously inefficient and worthless unless your actually getting on. For every game you get a tick gained are they amounting enough extra p/l to sacrifice the wins you have missed out on? Just stick to a range and if it is in that range get on it. If its value at the time then it doesnt matter for an extra tick.
I do worry about the FH dutch score market. Its viable now with min stakes but itll become almost meaningless as your bank improves. Best to just focus on the most liquid markets. I know why your doing it, but honestly keeping things simple will be way more productive.
As for everything else its good to see that your tracking these. It may look like iv taken a dig here but actually these are only recommendations or advice. Its good to see your tracking. Iv said this countless times it doesnt take long to build data, its easy building strategies. I can see countless of profitable ones on this forum. Its how we manage that. I echo eamonns post because i also said the exact same thing to him. Its scary identical. The reason is because we all do it like this to start and then find out along the way. Can only offer advice to try get you away from this mindset and into a less is more one. Its counter intuitive to think like that but another way of putting it like lee did is less, but better trades
However its fantastic to see you back at this, building data that will be used in future and keeping in line with staking and discipline. The rest of what i put is upto you to decide if its needed. Just be careful.
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Glad to see you are keeping the discipline with the staking. That seems like an awful lot of trades though. Im no expert mate but I was doing 3/4 strategies for a while and I found it very time consuming. Dont get too bogged down with it. It can certainly affect the head.
Why are you missing out on a lot of Stuarts LTD by laying one tick lower? Why not either have a set range you use or failing that just take the price on offer? Going one tick lower is not much of a profit and it would annoy you missing out on so many. I only go for 3.5-4.1. Thats my range.Glad to see the FH LTD is working for you. I had a bit of success with it but gave it up as the liquidity is not great on most matches and going forward "if" "when" I am staking bigger amounts the strategy would not work. Hope it works for you to build up a bank.
Best of luck mate
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Evening all , thought i would do an update on my trading with my April results now updated onto my spreadsheet.
I have 5 systems i am now running , still using the £2max liabilty stakes which i am happy with as i haven't been tempted into higher stakes which is good. I am going to carry on collating data using the same staking plan and as Stuart has mentioned it really doesn't take as long as you think to get decent amounts of data, another few months and i will then try to break down each strategy and eliminate leagues that perform poorly and find the trading odds ranges that are most profitable. For the time being the results are as followsSYSTEM 1- STUARTS SET AND FORGET LTD AT KO
This system would no doubt be in profit like everyone else if i managed to get my odds matched before a goal goes in , i am putting in a lay trade normally half hour or so before kick off for odds one tick lower than the current lay price. If a game has a lively start the odds can sometimes creep up ,and not get down to the odds that i had put in until 20mins into the match which inevitably has a goal in the 1st 20mins. Will from now on put a lay bet in still one tick below the current price but a few hours or the evening before as on the occasions i have done this they tend to get matched
APRIL TRADES - 88
WON - 68
LOST - 20
STRIKE RATE - 77.27%
LOST ( - £3.23)TOTAL TRADES ON THIS SYSTEM TO DATE 169 , WON 132 LOST 37 , S/R 78% ( LOSS OF £4.40)
SYSTEM 2 - DUTCH FULL TIME CORRECT SCORE MARKET, i have a filter set up with a 80% chance in the last 10 matches the following score lines ( 0-0,1-0,0-1,1-1,2-0,2-1,1-2,2-2) also i check the last 5 h2h results and make sure the data is similar.
TRADES - 174
WON - 140
LOST - 34
STRIKE RATE - 80.46%
MONTHLY PROFIT - £14.56TOTAL TO DATE - TRADES 187, WON 149,LOST 38 , STRIKE RATE 79.68% PROFIT £11.13
SYSTEM 3 - DUTCH 1ST HALF CORRECT SCORE MARKET . I was trading one version until the last week or so which was a filter set up for 85% chance of 0-0,0-1,1-0) but recently added 3 other variations which i believe will bring in more profit, just need the strike rate to match the filter expectations. These versions are 0-0 or 1-0, the next being 0-0 and 0-1, and the final version is where goals are expected 20% or less chance of a 0-0 half time score line so added lcs 0-0 on 20mins and hope to have the odds lower than 2.20 or below preferably below 2.0.
TRADES - 180
WON 133
LOST 47
STRIKE RATE 73.89%
LOSS OF £4.80TOTAL TO DATE 207 TRADES, WON 155, LOST 52, S/R 75% ( LOSS OF £2.18)
SYSTEM 4- MY OWN SET AND FORGET LTD AT KICK OFF - This i thought was going to be my post performing strategies but still in profit each month which is great with the difficult end of season fixtures to contend with. Having to go through each match from the filter and decide if teams have anything to play for and i think i have probably could have made more money on this strategy where sometimes both teams are desperate for the points and can end up in a draw and also i tend to lay injury time if a team is only winning by 1 at odds around 1.05 incase of a late goal .
TRADES 202
WON 152
LOST 25
STRIKE RATE 75.25%
PROFIT £7.81TOTAL TO DATE TRADES 337, WON 259, LOST 78, STRIKE RATE 77% PROFIT £28.58
SYSTEM 5- IS LTD AT HT IF 0-0 OR 1-1 AND ODDS BELOW 3.0. This is a system i have taken on after Eamon mentioned to me and seems to be doing well so far. I have a filter set up expecting a second half goal as long as the matches wern't already of my trading list for Stuarts set and forget and my ltd at kick off and the inplay stats look good i get in
TRADES 45
WON 32
LOST 13
STRIKE RATE 71%
PROFIT £8.46 -
Well done mate, glad to see the discipline is kicking in. Small stakes at the start is the key until you get confident in your strategy and also your staking.
Keep it up mate
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:March Update
More trading this month has been set aside to set and forget strategies . I have shelved the split stake 1.5 goal system i was attempting as was losing patience and am finding set and forget systems appear to me much better for my trading mentality, again i am trading with real money, i am only doing £2-00 minimum liability stakes which i am happy with as i don't up chasing loses.
System 1 - Stuart's set and forget ltd has had a lot better month in March
Trades 61
Winners 52
losses 9
strike rate 85.24%
Profit £6.92System 2- Dutch full time correct score , this is a new set and forget strategy which i started a week or so early days, based on a filter i have set.
Trades 13
Won 9
Losses 4
strike rate 69%
Loss £-3.43System 3- Dutch 1st half correct score, based on a filter set and dutch 0-0,1-0,0-1 1st half correct score
Trades 27
Won 22
Lost 5
Strike Rate 81%
Profit £2.62System 4 - My own set and forget ltd. This month has had a couple of bad set of trading days which has put a dent into the strike rate which was running 89% but still increased my profit
Trades 107
Won 82
Lost 25
Strike Rate 76.66%
Profit £7.03So with a total of 135 trades and a strike rate of 79% on this strategy, and once i add this weekend results to this strategy i should have over 150 matches of data which i will go through and see if i can pick apart and find any leagues that are performing poorly and see if i can find the magic odds range to then filter my selections further
I will be picking my matches more selective soon as a lot of the European leagues are coming to the end and there may be a lot of dead rubber matches that could effect this strategy -
March Update
More trading this month has been set aside to set and forget strategies . I have shelved the split stake 1.5 goal system i was attempting as was losing patience and am finding set and forget systems appear to me much better for my trading mentality, again i am trading with real money, i am only doing £2-00 minimum liability stakes which i am happy with as i don't up chasing loses.
System 1 - Stuart's set and forget ltd has had a lot better month in March
Trades 61
Winners 52
losses 9
strike rate 85.24%
Profit £6.92System 2- Dutch full time correct score , this is a new set and forget strategy which i started a week or so early days, based on a filter i have set.
Trades 13
Won 9
Losses 4
strike rate 69%
Loss £-3.43System 3- Dutch 1st half correct score, based on a filter set and dutch 0-0,1-0,0-1 1st half correct score
Trades 27
Won 22
Lost 5
Strike Rate 81%
Profit £2.62System 4 - My own set and forget ltd. This month has had a couple of bad set of trading days which has put a dent into the strike rate which was running 89% but still increased my profit
Trades 107
Won 82
Lost 25
Strike Rate 76.66%
Profit £7.03So with a total of 135 trades and a strike rate of 79% on this strategy, and once i add this weekend results to this strategy i should have over 150 matches of data which i will go through and see if i can pick apart and find any leagues that are performing poorly and see if i can find the magic odds range to then filter my selections further
I will be picking my matches more selective soon as a lot of the European leagues are coming to the end and there may be a lot of dead rubber matches that could effect this strategy
