MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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@martin said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Big update. Right time to be honest with myself and face up to life. i have had a gambling habit for far too many years. My life turned took a downward spiral when i was 23 , me and my partner at the time split around the time of the birth of our daughter, and i havn't been part of her life since she was two. I took to drink and drugs to try to blank my loss but of course that made it worse(got over these addictions a few years ago luckily) i then also got involved in gambling which has cost me thousands over the years.
I found Betfair and then this site a couple of years ago but have not been able to control my urges to chase losses and as always ends up in a disaster ( horses and greyhounds)
Then something amazing hopefully happened last week when my daughter knocked at my parents door and i am meeting up with her for the first time in 19 years this weekend(she is 21 now).
This seems to miraculously effected my trading head and fortunately i haven't touched a horse race or greyhound race in a week and i don't ever want to again . I have spent the weekend updating my spreadsheet upto the 23rd of October now so will continue to update which should be complete by the weekend. Once done i will evaluate which strategies i will persevere with and hopefully my new trading era can begin with the discipline that is needed to succeed.
I will update my results in the next couple of days for October and post the results and then make conclusive decisions as a way forward.wow what a story, thanks for sharing. sorry to hear about your past troubles but congratulations on taking the right steps away from them!
I really hope you get to see your daughter, you must have been to hell and back with that, keep us updated.
long may it continue!
Hi Martin, thanks for your message, i certainly have but from now it isn't about my feelings , the priority is to concentrate on developing a relationship it will take time but it will be worth it . The story behind her knocking on the door is amazing though.
She is a post lady and was covering a round for someone who was on holiday and the house opposite she has a parcel to deliver and they wern't in and the notes said to come to number 8 to sign if no answer. She knocked and asked for the surname and my Dad said Everard and that was when she asked any relation of James . I never expected the chance and i am desperate to make up for it -
@stuart-capstick Thanks Chris for the message i am really nervous but also very excited
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Wow incredible update James especially meeting your daughter again this weekend hope that goes ok and your in each other’s lives again going forward although will take time
All the best for the weekend
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Big update. Right time to be honest with myself and face up to life. i have had a gambling habit for far too many years. My life turned took a downward spiral when i was 23 , me and my partner at the time split around the time of the birth of our daughter, and i havn't been part of her life since she was two. I took to drink and drugs to try to blank my loss but of course that made it worse(got over these addictions a few years ago luckily) i then also got involved in gambling which has cost me thousands over the years.
I found Betfair and then this site a couple of years ago but have not been able to control my urges to chase losses and as always ends up in a disaster ( horses and greyhounds)
Then something amazing hopefully happened last week when my daughter knocked at my parents door and i am meeting up with her for the first time in 19 years this weekend(she is 21 now).
This seems to miraculously effected my trading head and fortunately i haven't touched a horse race or greyhound race in a week and i don't ever want to again . I have spent the weekend updating my spreadsheet upto the 23rd of October now so will continue to update which should be complete by the weekend. Once done i will evaluate which strategies i will persevere with and hopefully my new trading era can begin with the discipline that is needed to succeed.
I will update my results in the next couple of days for October and post the results and then make conclusive decisions as a way forward.wow what a story, thanks for sharing. sorry to hear about your past troubles but congratulations on taking the right steps away from them!
I really hope you get to see your daughter, you must have been to hell and back with that, keep us updated.
long may it continue!
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Big update. Right time to be honest with myself and face up to life. i have had a gambling habit for far too many years. My life turned took a downward spiral when i was 23 , me and my partner at the time split around the time of the birth of our daughter, and i havn't been part of her life since she was two. I took to drink and drugs to try to blank my loss but of course that made it worse(got over these addictions a few years ago luckily) i then also got involved in gambling which has cost me thousands over the years.
I found Betfair and then this site a couple of years ago but have not been able to control my urges to chase losses and as always ends up in a disaster ( horses and greyhounds)
Then something amazing hopefully happened last week when my daughter knocked at my parents door and i am meeting up with her for the first time in 19 years this weekend(she is 21 now).
This seems to miraculously effected my trading head and fortunately i haven't touched a horse race or greyhound race in a week and i don't ever want to again . I have spent the weekend updating my spreadsheet upto the 23rd of October now so will continue to update which should be complete by the weekend. Once done i will evaluate which strategies i will persevere with and hopefully my new trading era can begin with the discipline that is needed to succeed.
I will update my results in the next couple of days for October and post the results and then make conclusive decisions as a way forward.Fantastic news, James. Made up for you.
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Big update. Right time to be honest with myself and face up to life. i have had a gambling habit for far too many years. My life turned took a downward spiral when i was 23 , me and my partner at the time split around the time of the birth of our daughter, and i havn't been part of her life since she was two. I took to drink and drugs to try to blank my loss but of course that made it worse(got over these addictions a few years ago luckily) i then also got involved in gambling which has cost me thousands over the years.
I found Betfair and then this site a couple of years ago but have not been able to control my urges to chase losses and as always ends up in a disaster ( horses and greyhounds)
Then something amazing hopefully happened last week when my daughter knocked at my parents door and i am meeting up with her for the first time in 19 years this weekend(she is 21 now).
This seems to miraculously effected my trading head and fortunately i haven't touched a horse race or greyhound race in a week and i don't ever want to again . I have spent the weekend updating my spreadsheet upto the 23rd of October now so will continue to update which should be complete by the weekend. Once done i will evaluate which strategies i will persevere with and hopefully my new trading era can begin with the discipline that is needed to succeed.
I will update my results in the next couple of days for October and post the results and then make conclusive decisions as a way forward. -
@martin said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard like the set and forget LTD at KO, what sort of odds are you laying at?
Hi Martin , on my filter that selects my matches, one of the criteria's is the odds which is below 4.90.
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@james-everard like the set and forget LTD at KO, what sort of odds are you laying at?
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Still running behind with my recording but now caught up to the end of September's trades. Going away for the weekend so i have decided that i will carry on with my minimum £2 liability stakes until the end of the month. I will be upto date for sure with the data input and will give me time to analyse and make any adjustments and then start in November.
My own ltd system had another profitable month for September even though i had a bad period mid month. Last weekend i noticed was a horror show so will take a dent into any profit for the system for October.
Laying the underdog i think i will be changing the entry on two instances where the odds are much lower . Firstly if the favourite goes two nil down or the last 10mins of the match if they are a goal down.
Anyway here are Septembers resultsSystem 1- Stuarts ltd at kick off
Sept Trades 51 , won 38, lost 13 , s/rate 74.51% Monthly loss of - £3.09
Total Trades to date 391, won 301, lost 90 , s/rate 77% Total - Loss of - £4.23System 2 - My own set and forget ltd at kick off
Sept trades 46, won 39, lost 5, s/rate 87%, Monthly profit of £11.22
Total trades to date 662, won 516, lost 146, s/rate 78% Total - Profit + £64.26System 3 - Laying the underdog if they take the lead
Sept Trades 19, Won 6, lost 13, s/rate 18.68% Monthly loss of -£6.21
Total Trades to date 61, won 32, lost 29, s/rate 52% Total Profit +£28.17 -
@james-everard Bit behind still and the plan of starting my trading seriously will begin on October the 1st. I now have the results completed on my spreadsheet upto the end of August. I Will spend half hour evening to complete Septembers results.
i will be trading my own ltd at kick off as i have had another good months of results the others not so will complete Septembers results before confirming thisSystem 1 - Stuarts Set and Forget ltd
August results -Trades 43 , Won 32 , lost 11, s/rate 74.41% ( monthly loss of -£0.41)
Total trades to date for this system - Trade 340, won 263, lost 77,s/r 77%( loss -£1.14)System 2- My own set and Forget Ltd
August results - Trades 57. won 48, lost 9 ,s/r 84.21%, Profit £20.73
Total Trades to date for the system- Trades 616, won 477, lost 139,s/r 77%, Profit £53.04System 3- Laying the underdog if they take the lead
August results - Trades 15, won 8, lost 7, s/r 53.33%, monthly loss of -£4.38
Total trades to date on system 3- Trades 42,won 26, lost 16 ,s/rate 62% profit £34.35Total month profit for the 3 systems £15.94
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Patterns in results:
Seeing how a team's previous form affects likelihood of a draw
Looking at likely runs of wins and losses. For example, this strategy very rarely has a losing run of greater than 3. Likewise, it tends to have winning runs of 5 ( but sometimes up to 15..) -
@stuart-capstick i am sure as long as crowds are allowed to carry on attending the strategy will turn around. what patterns are you looking into ?
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I'm looking at various things:
Individual teams
Patterns in resultsI also think the crowds, or lack of them, had an effect.
So, it's a case of waiting until mid September.
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@stuart-capstick said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Very rude of me not to say "Hello and well done, James".
Glad to see your LTD is doing well. As mentioned, the summer has been, well, shite, for my system.
Hoping the Winter Leagues will perform better, but I'm waiting a wee while before jumping in.That's ok mate never took any offence. Thanks hopefully finally got somewhere and ready to take that leap.
I have picked 3 matches from your strategy today with all 3 winners all winters leagues so hopefully the tide will turn as long term it has been profitable for you mate -
Very rude of me not to say "Hello and well done, James".
Glad to see your LTD is doing well. As mentioned, the summer has been, well, shite, for my system.
Hoping the Winter Leagues will perform better, but I'm waiting a wee while before jumping in. -
@stuart-capstick said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
£200= 100 points, £2= 1 point.
So, £30 profit=15 points.
Brilliant cheers Stuart finally sunk in !
How's your ltd been going last couple of weeks, seems to have picked up? -
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@darri said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard the easiest way to calculate points is just take your starting bank and divide it by 100.
so 1 point of a £100 bank is £1
so 1 point of a £200 bank is £2So for when you start with a £200 bank you said you will be using £4 stakes, that is not 1 point that is 2 points/2% of the bank. Just keep it that simple. End of each month or whenever you change stakes/compound thats when you change the points value. Its simple when you just think about dividing your bank by 100 an then that is then 1 point. Not sure i like the point system you were thinking of, just complicates it further. Cant go wrong with this method and is a great measure of a strategy overall/long term rather than short sharp bursts.
Thanks for explaining i have obviously got confused with the point system . Can you help my pea brain understand , So if you say started off with a £200 bank and using 2% stakes (2 points which is £4) and i am up for instance on the system and the end of the month i have £230 in the bank is that 30 points profit or 15?
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@james-everard the easiest way to calculate points is just take your starting bank and divide it by 100.
so 1 point of a £100 bank is £1
so 1 point of a £200 bank is £2So for when you start with a £200 bank you said you will be using £4 stakes, that is not 1 point that is 2 points/2% of the bank. Just keep it that simple. End of each month or whenever you change stakes/compound thats when you change the points value. Its simple when you just think about dividing your bank by 100 an then that is then 1 point. Not sure i like the point system you were thinking of, just complicates it further. Cant go wrong with this method and is a great measure of a strategy overall/long term rather than short sharp bursts.
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@darri said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard im glad you are doing it this way instead of rushing to get things all setup. Im guessing with the lay underdog you have managed to get on a few late ones which have bumped the p/l high. Would be interesting to see how these do long term without these low price lays. I think thats why others have failed at underdog lays because typically early underdog leads still have high prices. Based on your strike rate id assume you have had a couple low price lays that went on to win.
Asked stuart about his ltd, summer leagues didnt perform well at all, but winter leagues have soared in p/l so that will come good again.
Your LTD seems solid. I want to ask tho you are using the £ measurement instead of points, id encourage you to start measuring strats based on points/% of bank. It gets ugly trying to figure out the success of strats when you start changing stakes etc. So what have you made points wise from 559 trades? Im just gonna guess that you have made 32points as id guess these are based off a £100 bank?
Looking good tho mate keep it up
Hi Dari hope you are well mate?
i am currently just trading the minimum £2 liability stakes as was testing, this will continue until i finish completing my spreadsheet results for August.
I will then will start trading properly with a £200 starting trading bank using 2% stakes so will be £4 trading stakes for 1 point. It gets complicated calculating the way i have but like you say calculating the way you suggest will be better in the long run. I am not sure what the points based profit is so far as complicated for my pea brain to work out lol
The laying of the underdogs system as you eluded to has been profitable due to a couple of underdogs taking a goal late in the game and for the favorite to equalize late on as well, and also if they underdog goes 2-0 up, was Hoping the strike rate will improve and i am going to start to be more selective with my selections and not just base purely on the filter but also the inplay stats more. I am using a filter i have set and not the ratings page if anyone wants me to share i am more than happy to pass on
