MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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@chris-osborne Brilliant thanks Chris i will watch the video when i get back from the gym
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@james-everard Its explained here - don't neeed the Automation necessarily
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@martin Hi Martin. So the late goal filter you use is it on the preset filters ( going for a late goal anyscoreline) if so you go in with the full stake at around 74mins?
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@james-everard so the late goal filters work well for this, I need to pull up more of the goal times for this actually but basically I’m noticing that 70-74 mins can be a great entry time.
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@martin said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard have you looked at 70 mins for late goal? I've found that can be a great entry point
Hi Martin , no i hadn't tried going in that early . Do you go in and do the full trade on 70mins as i was doing a split stake on 81,85,88 and 91mins, but i has gone from being great to dreadful.
My filter i had set up was as followsOverall scored in 80-90 +91+ mins 50% or greater
overall matches played greater or equal to 10
home goals for + and home goals conceded greater or equal to 50%
Away goals for + and home goals conceded greater or equal to 50%
Overall goals 91-90 + 91+ - fulltime greater or equal to 8
Home goals total for and away goals for 81-90 + 91+ mins greater or equal to 4Is your filter similar or can you point me in the right direction how to get this system profitable please?
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@james-everard have you looked at 70 mins for late goal? I've found that can be a great entry point
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Quick update for November , will do a breakdown of the results when i get time. But certainly another poor month so much so the late goal 80plus mins has been omitted and will only trade the summer leagues which proved profitable over the summer.
Monthly loss for the Month -£150.66
New trading bank of £460.59
New stakes £9.21Will see how December goes with the laying of the underdog system, this is the only system to be traded in December , fingers crossed a turn around next month.
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@james-everard England and Wales should both get out of the easiest group imaginable fairly easily
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@chris-osborne I just have a feeling that England may struggle, think we may even struggle to win our group if we don't then they will probably play the Netherlands and i think we will lose.
If we win the group i can see your angle as we should beat Ecaudor or Senegal -
@james-everard should be a France v England QF
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@chris-osborne Didn't realise all of them players were out of the squad . Lloris isn't great then England are one of the favouries with bloody Jordan Pickford between the sticks lol
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@chris-osborne Who is missing i know of Benzema but i think they should top their group with Denmark , Australia and Tunisia. Winning the group then they would play runners up of Group C which includes Argentina ( who i think will top the group) , Saudi Arabia , Mexico and Poland
Pogba, Kimpembe, kante, Nkunko, Maignan to name a few all would have played other than Maignan who is far better than Lloris
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@chris-osborne Who is missing i know of Benzema but i think they should top their group with Denmark , Australia and Tunisia. Winning the group then they would play runners up of Group C which includes Argentina ( who i think will top the group) , Saudi Arabia , Mexico and Poland
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@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
With the world cup now started ,I have looked at the potential routes to the last 4 and backed 4 teams to win the competition , i will trade the liability out after the group stage. I have backed Argentina , Brazil, France and Belgium
Even with France's injuries?
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With the world cup now started ,I have looked at the potential routes to the last 4 and backed 4 teams to win the competition , i will trade the liability out after the group stage. I have backed Argentina , Brazil, France and Belgium
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Update for October , had my meltdown earlier in my month , but retrieved slightly the situtation
With a starting bank of £857.11 at the start of October here is the breakdown of the two systemsLate goal 80+mins (split stake 81,85,88,90+1)
Trades 34
Won 12
Lost 22
Loss -£43.32
S/rate 35.29%System 2 - Laying the underdog if they take the lead
Laying Home undedog
Trades 23
Won 5
Lost 18
S/rate 21.74%
Loss -£178.47Laying Away Underdog
Trades 13
Won 6
Lost 7
Loss -£24.07
S/rate 46.15%The laying of the underdog , i changed later in the month to only entering on 65mins if the underdog is ahead , if they are leading in the first half , i find the odds are too high to make any decent profit with a 2% liability stake and with bad variance this month on the system the loss was higher.
I have tightened the filter also on the laying of the home underdog which hopefully will reduce the losses in this system.So with a monthly total loss of £245.86, my new trading bank is now £611.25 , liabilty stakes per trade now reduced to £12.22, here's to a better month so far so good with 3 small wins out of 3
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On top of my amendment to laying of the underdog entry time, . I am looking where available at the line ups making sure the top goal scorers /assists are playing.
And also i am going to check the inplay stats more , i had a match this evening on my filter in the Belgium premier league - Eupen vs Leven , the home team were the underdog and 3-2 up , line up for the away side was good but the inplay stats showed the home team were dominant so left trading the match . Good job to as it ended up 4-2.
Much more indepth analyis along with pre match stats i think will be vital in reducing the losses -
Had a night to sleep over it, i lost the plot yesterday mentally which was the biggest disappointment so sorry for losing my head yesterday.
Others have said just look at the bank i have built up it is still in decent profit.
The laying of the underdog system i am amending my entry point to only entering if the underdog is in front on 65mins or if they are 2-0 up. The rewards for laying teams over 2.2 isn't profitable long term for me , and all my decent returns are for later equalisers.
The late goal filter i must believe in and just going through a downturn period of variance and could swing the other way soon. In fact the one match today produced a decent win with a 93rd min goal.
Will catch up reading some of yours posts on the football thread -
@james-everard have a look at the main football thread before you do anything, a number in the same boat
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@richard-latimer said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Are they low odds? If you take low odds you will get long losing streaks even from profitable strategies.
Yes on the late goal strategy i split the stakes over 4 on 81,85,88 and 90+1 mins the first lay on the next goal market is normally max 1.6- 1.75. Think though i have managed just 1 win and that was only a small win as that came in the 83rd min. The filter picks matches with overall scored in 60% of matches have a goal 80+mins but the strike rate this month must be around 5% !!
