From Goals To Match Points
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Having thought about doing so for a while, I’ve decided ot start my own Trading blog mainly to provide accountability to myself and also track my progress.
The Boring Bit
• 51 from Leicester
• Work as a Manufacturing Accountant for a large multinational American owned conglomerate, I am based in Rugby although I have been working from home since lockdown started in March which I can’t see changing anytime soon. This basically means I stare at spreadsheets analysing data for over 40hrs a week
• Passionate about Sport and to a lesser extent music.
• Will watch virtually any sport going not necessarily to trade but as a fan, passionate about Football and American Football, Leicester City and Dallas Cowboys supporter and yes I’ll dine out on 2015/16 for ever because it is highly unlikely to happen again. Also enjoy the multi event sporting occasions such as the Olympics.Trading Background
I don’t come from a gambling background although will place the odd bet from time to time, was aware of Betfair but until a couple of years ago, was never in a position to do anything about it.
Used to play Online Poker at the height of its peak although rarely play these days other than socially, there are a lot of similarities particularly with mindset and bankroll management between trading and poker.
I joined another trading site a couple of years ago which I won’t name and although there content was fine and I learnt a lot, the main issue for me was that there was very little support once paid for the courses which weren’t cheap and the chat room was very much a clique. Ended up blowing a couple of small bankrolls and decided to leave trading for a while.
Started taking more of an interest during lockdown, discovered BTC via my You Tube Home Page, watched a few videos and liked what I saw particularly from the Filters and decided to take the plunge and sign up in May, quickly realising this is the best place for me.Trading Goals
• To learn as much as I can to help me become a profitable trader
• Be in a position where if nothing else can ensure the BTC subscription pays for itself.
• To develop reliable and consistent filters for football and tennis which will bemy main sports to trade.
• Be in a position to help others to get where they want to be but that’s a while away yet.
• Eventually would like to be in a position where I can have a steady second income from trading – to quote a phrase from Ryan and James’ excellent podcast this week, for a sports fanatic who wouldn’t want to “Earn Money From Sports”Where Am I Now
• Football will always be my main sport to trade, I would like to be in a position to have mainly “Set and forget” strategies which I can set up everyday and leave to run.
• Mixed in with Set and Forget strategies would like to develop a couple of my own filters that I can rely on and use on a daily basis. Not there yet but have one filter in testing that has potential.
• As well as football enjoy trading Tennis especially whilst I am WFH as a trade can be over in a few minutes which currently suits me. Due to work commitments Tennis is something I won’t always be able to trade depending on where abouts in the world tournaments are taking place – Australia for instance will be difficult. Season just about over but next year, want to develop some Tennis filters.
• Dabbled in a few other sports in the six months I’ve been at BTC especially cricket, found test match trading fascinating but have backed off for the time being to focus on the football.
• Although I am a big US Football fan, its not something I’ve ever traded, may look at next year but just want to enjoy watching it. – Redzone at 6pm every Sunday is essential viewing unless Leicester are playing.
Trading Style and Areas I need to Work on
I have my moments but I consider my mindset to be a strength. Its needed to be over the past few weeks because for the last couple of days of October and most of November, thing have been incredibly difficult although have recovered a bit in the last week.
Currently mainly trade second half in football and laying set 1 winner in tennis.Areas I need to work on
• Cut down the games on my trading plan, very much a work in progress I’ve reduced the leagues I’m trading but still have too many games at times. With Winter Leagues starting to hit filters, this is a big concern at the minute.
• Get some reliable filters fully tested and in place both for Football and Tennis which will assist with the previous point. There is a football filter with potential which I’ll go into in my next post
• This is a mindset issue but Saturday’s are a trading disaster for me most weeks, need to sort out
• In play trading
• More an issue for Tennis, timing entry and exit points – if trades start going against e, tend to exit instead of exercising a bit of patience and staying in trades longer – Giorgi v Tormo from earlier this week is an example.
• To ask more questions (apologies in advance) and make use of the Private Coaching area of the BTC forum which is something I haven’t really taken advantage of as yet.I’ve waffled on for long enough, probably look at updating a couple of times a week.
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@chris-osborne What is Keiths 3% club - is there a link to this thanks
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After being full on since before Christmas from a work point of view, I have this week off and its much needed.
This week is all about me, of which trading will play a big part. A few things I want to look at: -
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Research Into the Indian Wells Tennis starting on Wednesday - one of the biggest tournaments outside the Slams
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Deep Dive on a football strategy I've been testing since the summer
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Finally look at trading software - mainly for tennis but also for football automation - expect a lot of questions will start with Fairbot as a few people seem to be having success with this of late
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Put together a spreadsheet I promised for @paul-Keighley
These are in no particular order
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Allow me to reaquaint myself with my blog, been a while
Posted in the tennis thread been massively busy at work since Christmas which will continue certainly for next week and then should ease off a bit.
Not a great deal of trading from me, football wise I'm currently just following @Keith-Anderson 3% club, and Ryan's split stake.
For Keith's 3% club anyone who wants to build a bankroll should look at getting involved. The max odds I will lay for are 3.9, if I don't get matched before a goal goes in then so be it I'll just move onto the next, may still look at the SH goals markets.
For Ryan's split stake, if no goal will cash out at 70% if 1 goal, will stay into the end liability will have been removed if possible
I decided to start my tennis year from this week, traded Monday/Tuesday for 8pts but after that work got in the way again. Got a couple of days off next week traditional day off after Superbowl Sunday hope ot be more active from a tennis point of view going forward.
I'm tracking a couple of things from a football point of view one from a Ratings standpoint and also a normal football filter, when I get some time will post some analysis.
Will post my thoughts on the Superbowl over the weekend
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@alastair-todd I can simplify it very easily for you buddy no worries
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@ryan I have to admit I don't know what I don't know on this one! I notice some of the experts, @Darri being one of them, that mention testing and adjusting their filters and so it would be useful to see how best to do this. Presumably it is a case of removing or adding leagues, adjusting the variables in the filter, or taking different odds when entering the trades (or a combination of all of the above). In essence, if you were able to give some advice on how best to understand where the filters could be made more effective, that would certainly help, although I know that this is probably not a precise science!
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@alastair-todd good idea for a video that! What questions do you have around it?
What questions do others have as well? Then me and Martin could double team on a podcast and video
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Guys, can I ask what’s the perceived advantages of laying on the U1.5 market against backing on the O1.5?
Most people on here seems to be going for the lay option, is it just so you maintain the same win value and accept you loss value will vary?
I have been a tracking a similar strategy to you, have around 500 games tracked so far with an 82 per cent strike rate but prefer to back the O1.5 at this stage, just checking I’m not missing something
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@alastair-todd Today's Sunderland game would have been a good one for the "Maria" system odds at start we're 5.2 from memory but goal came in to early to be matched at 3.9. For me it will depend on teams involved and goal stats - if its two teams at opposite ends of a table I'll think about it but two evenly matched teams I'll probably avoid, need to look at the stats more though
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@chris-osborne Your 'Plans for 2022' post was really excellent and almost exactly matches my Football strategy (not touching Tennis). I have been testing a Lay 1.5 goals filter for the last 300 matches and my figures are pretty close to yours: the s/r is 80.8% (which includes unmatched trades) for 1.5 goals, first goal average time is 27 minutes, average match price 6.33, but like you i have been trying to get matches at 4 or less. Because it is set and forget, there have been quite a few matches where I haven't been matched - in fact the matched trade s/r is only 71%. To that end, to keep the liability manageable, I am also starting to use a Maria staking plan over odds of 4, although this is very early days so I can't add any useful analysis on this yet. Interested in the leagues you have used - I suspect I need to start cutting out the leagues with s/r of less than at least 75%, so well done for doing this analysis as well - quite a change to your figures going from 81 to 88%!
My focus now is to try to tweak my filter to make it more reliable so I will be following you very closely, as this is the area where I realise improvements are there to be made but, at the same time, it is the area where I don't necessarily know how best to do it (@ryan @martin - video perhaps?). Any advice from anyone gratefully received. Keep up the good work.
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@keith-anderson Thanks Keith, no hadn't thought of O2.5 goals and FHG's I'll have a look I have goals data tracked
I agree re the Championship and League One. The Championship I class with Bundesliga 2 promises much but usually crap
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Great @Chris-Osborne !
The quality in the championship just isn’t there. Any of the relegated premiership teams this season, should bounce back up again. I love league one also, just very competitive. It’s what the championship used to be.
Have you tried just straight backing over 2.5 goals? Even though it’s a 1.5 goals strategy, those loads you can get from it. Try it for FHG as well.
I call these ‘unintentional benefits’
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Hope those who celebrate had a good Christmas.
Plans For 2022
My trading plans for 2022 will be in two areas - Tennis and Football
Tennis
Tennis will be my main sport to trade going forward. Last year I focussed mainly on the WTA but this year will be targetting both ATP and WTA.
As tennis is a global sport, my focus on what tournaments to trade will mainly be besed on where abouts in the world they are taking place.
Due to work committments, trading during the day is difficult which rules out most of the Europesan tournaments unless they have matches starting after 7pm for example.
The season starts next week in Austrakia until aftert the Australian Open which as with the cricket, means most games take place during the night. What I'll probably look to do there is get up a bit earlier if the schedule looks viable to do so and there are games which I want to trade. They havebeen few and far between over the past couple of years but any Asian tournaments usually start around 5am which means i could also potentially trade at least some of the time.
The ideal tournaments for me to trade will be those which are mainly played during the evening UK times which will mainly be those in USA and rest of North/South America.
The grand slams I'll treat differently and decide on each tournament nearer the time.
The strategies I will be using are mainly around my perceived favourite going behind and then reacting accordingly whether thats with a Projected Hold or Lay first set winner strategy will depend on the game flow itself.
Ideally I'd like to have completed trading each match by the middle of the second set ideally in the first set. I won't get involved in a third set unless a renowned choker - Giorgi, Sasnovich, Pera is serving for the match. I'll also look for other high pressure situations eg in WTA opposing a player serving for a set at 5-4.
This week will be doing a fair bit of background research before the seasons start next week.
Football
In play trading is definitely not for me, I have my version of the Lay U1.5 which I have been testing most of this season which is looking very promising. This will be purely a set and forget strategy.
I have 660 games tested which is giving the following
Lay U1.5 S/R 81.8%
Back SHG S/R 82.1%I wasn't initially tracking SHG's but seeing what Keith was doing combining the both then I started tracking both also.
If I removed leagues with a less than 80% strike rate I get the following
Lay U1.5 S/R 88.2%
Back SHG S/R 85%The top performing Leagues in terms of Laying U1.5 are shown below - I know some people have had issues with Norway in the seasin just finished but I found it performed very well: -
And in terms of SHG's: -
The Championship is an interesting one because although it is tracking at a strike rate of 77% for laying U1.5 goals, it is showing 92% of games with SHG's.
My entry point is to queue at 3.9 or below at the start of a match in the LAy U1.5 markets - most games are priced between 4 and 6, average 6.2 although that is distorted by some games which are priced high.
Generally I would be getting matched between 10 to 20 minutes if no goals, if there are early goals and I don't get matched then fair enough. That is an important caveat on the strike rates posted above as these include everything not just those game which are matched. That is an impact I need to determine to give an accurate strike rate and Points impact.
For games which are priced between 4 and 6, I am thinking about employing a strategy based on the "Maria staking plan" instead of queuing but need to compare and understand the risk v rewards before doing so.
Will run the additional calculations I need to and then post a final strategy deep down in a couple of days including the spreadsheet which can be happily ripped apart.
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@chris-osborne Look forward to the update Chris. Enjoy your christmas and have a good time with family and friends. Most important for you though is relax as you have the mentioned year end looming
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I'll do a proper update after Christmas when I have a few days off before I get hit with Year end chaos just wanted to wish everyone and your families a Happy and Safe Christmas.
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One area of trading where I struggle especially with Tennis is achieving maximum value at both my entry and exit points.
@Martin posted a video recently on You Tube, link below which explained how he goes about calculating value.
The video focussed on NFL which is a sport I'm passionate about but it could be applied to most sports. I'm going to try it on tennis in the new year. I tried to see if I could follow the video's advice and find teams which I perceived to be priced incorrectly. See NFL strategies thread.Probably beginners luck but it was relatively succesful.
I'll probably continue to do this over the rest of season and see what happens.
Although I could write what I know about horse racing on the back of a folded stamp, I'm loving the enthusiasm from some of the posts around the Beta Testing of the Horse Racing Stats. especially @john-folan, I hope it gets what the horse racing traders want from them.As someone who is mainly data based, I'm looking forward to having a look when its released to see if I can work anything out.
for work reasons, updates may be a bit more sporadic than normal (if that's possible) for the rest of the year.
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@eamonn-hogan Thanks Eammon I feel the same way and Darri's post before yours has pretty much done the same for me.
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@darri Thanks for the response you've summed up alot of what I;m thinking especially around Football
I'm a massive fan of most sports and could watch 24/7 365 days a year if I could. The two sports I am most passionate about are football and American Football. However, I don''t particularly enjoy football trading and haven't really looked at the NFL for trading.
I think your probably right about focussing on the tennis. i'm probably being results orientated but if I'd traded the second half of the year as the first I wouldn't have even made that post.
Its interesting you make the comparison with James as I've thought on a few occasions that we are similar traders although he's at least a year ahead of me.
With the tennis season virtually over will take the rest of the year reviewing data etc and looking at strategies going forward.
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@chris-osborne
I felt this exact same way at the start of the month mate. Everything going well and was happy with my filter and happy with discipline etc, then boom 4-5 losing trades in 7 or 8 and any profits I had were gone. Then started to doubt myself and my filter.
What was I doing wrong? Why am I losing so many now?
I lost heart and confidence.Darri replied to my post and gave me a kick up the backside again. I had fallen into doing 3-4 strategies again. This is before I even succeeded in one.
So now I’m going back to basics, testing a shg filter to at least 300 results then Tweak for another 2-300.
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@chris-osborne If you read this post carefully youll notice you are talking about multiple strats and 2 sports. In a situation where you are not completely comfortable with any of your strats id massively encourage you stop everything. Look at your data, match that with bank outlay and then select one of them. Focus on one of them. You are killing your edges currently by not mastering one thing at a time. I think from what i see you should scrap your own football stuff. Keep going with some of the other strats like mine (if you want) and ryans. Dont worry about tracking things. Then just focus on tennis, which for me and reading your posts is where your best knowledge is. You currently have the same situation as @James-Woodroffe you have better knowledge and edges in sports away from football. You need to narrow focus and work on the sport you like most. You wont miss out on massive gains between now and summer, why dont you try that now until then. Then after summer with a more nailed on approach and an understanding of true value, you catch the "missed" gains quickly and based on this post avoid losers on things we havent nailed. Nothing worse than that feeling of why did it even trade that yet, all been there, but instead of just acknowledging it try to work on solving it has always been my approach.
