From Goals To Match Points
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On the break of servers what are you thinking?
This could be a momentum type trade where you spot that it’s happening and react to it and play it that way.
On Pliskova she’s had me on red a few times too - she’s got loads talent and she destroy some of these players but just doesn’t! She’s so annoying - another one who annoys me is Sabine Lisicky (iPhone keeps changing her name!).
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@chris-osborne Congratulations
Must feel good to come out with a nice profit after trading through a complete tournament 
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The past week has seen the first tennis tournaments of the year going on, WTA in Abu Dhabi and ATP in Turkey and Delray Beach. My focus has been the WTA which will generally be the case as there are far more swings which we can hopefully exploit.
Still the final to play tomorrow between Sabalenka and Kudermetova although I'm unlikely to get involved unless Sabalenka makes a slow start which she can do on occasions but expect her to be far to strong to take her third title in a row.
Been a succesful week trading although kept it low profile mainly laying the first set winner, ended up with over 5pts profit which I'll take every tournament.
As with most sports, there was a fair bit of early rustiness which acted as a leveller in abilities. Would also question the motivation of some players - Karolina Pliskova I'm looking at you who not for the first time lost to a player she should be beating easily every time which accounted for part of the loss on 08th January, she seem's to do this alot and I am yet to be convinced that her ranking is justified.
One area of tennis trading which I feel I should be exploiting but haven't worked out how to do so yet is there are matchers where every game seems to be a break of serve. One game in oarticular springs to mind Pera v Tormo - 14 games out of 31 played we're breaks of serve with a total of 36 break points off the three sets.
No tournaments now until 31st January as all players will have to quarantine for two weeks before the Australian Open starting 08th February.
The week before the Australian Open but at the same Melbourne venue, there will br two separate tournaments running concurrently. Most of the top players look like they will be playing a couple of interest will be Barty and Andreescu. Barty didn't play after lockdown last March due to travel restrictions whereas Andreescu missed all of last season witha knee injury.
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December Review, Hopes For 2021
Hope everyone had a good new year. I know today's news is not what any of us anted to hear but it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.
As was discussed on @darri's blog earlier today, its getting increasingly difficult to deal with these lockdowns mentally. I'm no exception to this, as with most people, I'm having good and bad days and today is not so good but there are people in far worse position than I am.
Fortunately, I've been continuously employed through all this albeit working from home since last March. Having worked all weekend, strting to get to me abit. Also being in Leicester, the first to go into extended lockdown for which we we've never come out of its getting waring. There are day's when I don't get out, even more so now the Gyms are shut and can't go swimming so I've signed up for this.
https://www.walk1000miles.co.uk
Whether there friends, family, work colleagues or whatever, we all need to make a effort to look out for eachother. Hopefully these vaccines are distibuted quicker than expected and we can get back to normal in a few months whatever that looks like.
December Review
Enough of the negativity time to move onto the rreason we here and what should be the fun
Despite the major blip that alot of people had the weekend before Christmas, I managed to clock up a 9 Unit profit in December which is the first month I've been profitible since joining BTC in May and hopfully the first of many.
Focussed on reducing volume and also Inplay stats in December which really seemed to help, this will be an ongoing process for me for the next few months until becomes automatic.
One area I was not happy about last month, was there was 10 days or so where I completely lost focus which coincided with the downturn I saw just before Christmas. The break over christmas did me good and got me back on track but it highlighted the importance of taking days off. I will be taking at least one day off from trading altogether a week from now on and probably two.
Hoped for January and Beyond
I'm going to continue working on what I'm doing with football but Tennis is back this week and that is going to be more of my focus for the first part of this year.
Probably not going to do much this week as with football, first matches of the season are always full of unknowns even more so this year. The only strategy I'm likely to look at, is laying the 1st set winner unless something materialises in play.
The WTA line field in Abu Dhabi is quite strong with four members of the top ten playing, not seen the ATP/WTA fields in Delray Beach as yet.
Something else I want to look at is Trading Software which I've wanted to do for a while but never got round too as yet.
Waffled on for long enough here's to a profitible 2021 but more importantly Stay Safe and hopefully we'll get back to normality sooner rather than later but don't be afraid to reach out to someone if your having a bad time of things we're all in this mess together and the more support we can give eachother the easier it will be.
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@chris-osborne said in From Goals To Match Points:
Hope everyone had a Good Christmas
Following on from my last update, I analysed the results and for the weekend just before Christmas, on my filters, 2nd half goals dropped on average by 0.4 which is significant. Back on track since then and have recovered most of the impact of those few days.
Will keep an eye on the filters thJaough to see if any long term impact and make t adjustments if necessary
For work reasons today is my last day of trading for December and not likely to be doing anything until next Monday 04th January
I do have a fear that Professional Sports in UK are going to be suspended if Covid numbers continue as they are. If this happens, hopefully other leagues carry on.
The good news is that Tennis is back in the next couple of weeks
Have a safe and prosperoujs New Year
I think footballers are safer than most, tested everyday and don't really have to do anything other than stay at home and go to training. let's hope it carries on!
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@chris-osborne think we might get a two week break, not sure other countries will but there is one thing with trading that’s never changed.... there’s always another trade.
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Hope everyone had a Good Christmas
Following on from my last update, I analysed the results and for the weekend just before Christmas, on my filters, 2nd half goals dropped on average by 0.4 which is significant. Back on track since then and have recovered most of the impact of those few days.
Will keep an eye on the filters thJaough to see if any long term impact and make t adjustments if necessary
For work reasons today is my last day of trading for December and not likely to be doing anything until next Monday 04th January
I do have a fear that Professional Sports in UK are going to be suspended if Covid numbers continue as they are. If this happens, hopefully other leagues carry on.
The good news is that Tennis is back in the next couple of weeks
Have a safe and prosperoujs New Year
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@chris-osborne enjoy the break buddy
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As with a lot of people I had a shocking week of trading especially over the weekend.
There’s a lot of reasons as to why which are being discussed on the football thread but tiredness of players especially with the volume of games played especially those teams in Europe is a massive consideration.
Why there was a full round of fixtures midweek last week goodness only knows.
I’m purely a 2nd half trader and the lack of 2nd half goals lately has started me rethink my filters because what was working currently isn’t.
I’m going to follow @richard-latimer’s lead and take a break until after Christmas to review the data I have and also see what I can establish going forward. If I don’t do this, my bankroll is at risk it’s fine at the moment but I can’t go through weeks like last week again.
Good luck to anyone trading this week let’s see some positivity over the next couple of weeks so we can all start 2021 flying.
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@chris-osborne Solid things to focus on and work through going forward.
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@ryan-carruthers A couple of things: -
Reducing the volume and focussing in Quality over quantity
Focussing more on in play scenarios, most of my trading is 2nd half so no excuse but this is an ongoing process.
The key for me is to continue and not give it all back this week. Consistency is not something that happens with me too often
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@chris-osborne Exactly, look what happened to the British cycling team as well?
They did pretty darn good!Can you put your finger on what was the difference maker?
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Probably my best week of trading since I joined BTC in May. Nothing spectacular just slow and steady gains all week.
The big wins are nice but rare would rather make steady consistent progress - Marginal Gains to quote the British cycling team which are more sustainable than wild swings from big winners and losers.
Did make one major trading error where I placed a lay trade at higher odds than I feel comfortable doing and shouldn't have got involved. Won't be doing that again in a hurry.
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Happy I could help out. Hopefully that is the issue as then it will be a relatively simple fix for you and you can move onwards and upwards
Got a similar plan myself with inplay skills. Will be watching games like you suggest, that are not to be traded, but I will be researching before hand and jotting down some expectations then see if they match up and if my brain just forces pre match ideas into the in play or if I can actually intelligently discern what is happening. Hope that made sense
A scratch month has got to be a positive at this stage of the trading journey
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Before I start, i'd like to thank @Matt-Wood for his response to my previous post about my regular downturn at the end of a month, he's hit on something I hadn't considered but working in Finance, month ends are busy and may have unconsciously impacted my trading. From now on not going to trade after 28th of each month depending on when month end falls.
This has been my month up to the end of yesterday, nothing much to write home about but its something to build on: -
First couple of days of December weren't great but been a significant change around since then, due to reducing the games I'm trading and also looking more at the Inplay and motivtion. The motivation question is key in Norway, Sweden and Japan at the moment where they are at the end of there season's.
With regards to Game selection, for those that haven't seen it, have a look at @darri's blog (link below) from yesterday, where he has gone through his game selection process from his initial list to the games he actually traded and his reasons for trading and discounting games. A couple of the posts I have bookmarked to come back too.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1069/the-road-to-full-time/1192
Got this week off work to use mainly to use holiday's up but as I'm in Tier 3 not alot I can get up to, going to focus on the following from a trading point of view: -
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Inplay game reading and motivation is a big area I need to work on and answering Ryan's "What has to happen question" - going to really focus and watch games even more so those I have no intention of trading to see if I can work out what is likely to happen. The plan is to come up with a checklist for pre trade game selection which all games have to fit before I even add a game to my trading plan. In play will take longer to determine but I'll get there.
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Got a bit behind in updating a couple of things I'm testing so need to get those up to date and see if there is anything worth building on at this stage.
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@matt-wood said in From Goals To Match Points:
@chris-osborne said in From Goals To Match Points:
@matt-wood said in From Goals To Match Points:
Could it maybe be tied to something non trading related, such as 'real life' working pattern? Maybe heavier workload at the end of the month?
That’s a good point Matt I hadn’t considered. Working in Finance, month and quarter ends are incredibly busy
Could be that. Maybe just a little brain fatigue with numbers towards month end.
Or perhaps an (understandable) push to try to close out the month with some good results.
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@chris-osborne said in From Goals To Match Points:
@matt-wood said in From Goals To Match Points:
Could it maybe be tied to something non trading related, such as 'real life' working pattern? Maybe heavier workload at the end of the month?
That’s a good point Matt I hadn’t considered. Working in Finance, month and quarter ends are incredibly busy
Could be that. Maybe just a little brain fatigue with numbers towards month end.
