Over 2.5 Trading
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A couple of people in the main thread today asked me about my over 2.5 goals selection & trading.
Apologies if my answers were pretty brief but it's fairly difficult to go in depth when you're watching & trading several markets. I'll try and spell out how I play these but I don't have all the answers folks, only what works for me and my trading temperament.
I can't share my exact filters here as some facets are not available on BTC data but, really, the filters are not that important and it should be fairly simple to generate something meaningful in the data available, the in-play stats and timings are the most important to me. I like to enter after the mid point of the first half with the score 0-0 and scratch/free bet by catching a FH goal. I'm really looking for a FH goal to get my free bet and then 2 x 2nd half goals to get the profit, so any realistic filters concentrating on a high possibilty of 1 FH goal and 2 or more SH goals should suffice.
I mentioned on my correct score trading thread what I call my 'COO' rating which is quite simply the total match Corners + Off Target Shots + On Target shots and I'm strict with myself about not entering unless I have a total of 10 before 30 minutes. 30 minutes is my ideal entry time knowing if I can catch a first half goal I'll be able to scratch and that's priority number one. If I get my 10 score before 30 minutes I'll often enter a little earlier but definitely not before 22 minutes, entering earlier than that at lower odds lessens my chance of a scratch trade with a late FH goal.
So I'll start monitoring a match on my shortlist after 22 minutes looking for my all important 'COO' rating of 10 by 30 minutes (actually probably more like 32 minutes if I'm only 1 or 2 short to give the stats chance to catch up). I'll then back over 2.5 goals. If I can get more than 50% of my stake as profit after the first goal I'll trade out leaving the profits on the overs - so really I need 0.50 lower odds, if I enter at 2.60 I need 2.10 to scratch after a goal, if I don't get that I stay in.
If I get a 2nd goal and can then green up with 50% profit I'll do that if not I stay in.
If I still need 2 goals at 80 minutes and I'm not at scratch then I'll lay under +0.5 or lay the CS below 2.00 to give me scratch with 1 goal. Sometimes I'll get double bubble with 1 goal to scratch and another to land the bet which is always very nice
I do have a 2nd entry point at half time on games that are 1-0/0-1 to pick up any games that had a FH goal too early for me and at that point I want a minimum 'COO' rating of 15 before I'll play.
I really can't emphasise enough to newer traders how important the IP stats are to me, if I don't get my number I don't play, I'm never going to run out of matches to trade!
So that's in it in a nutshell, look for games with a strong possibilty of 1 FH goal and 2 SH goals then make sure the IP stats are strong enough to get involved, if they are not then move on. There will be plenty of occasions when the IP stats are 1 or 2 short and you kick yourself for not getting involved as a quick goal goes in but don't become a victim of FOMO, forget it and move on to your next game.
As I said at the start, loads of different ways to play the overs markets, this is just mine.
One final point - I won't enter a game that already has a red card and I won't enter unless I get odds of minimum 2.00 and preferably 2.20 or greater. Probably between 2.40 and 3.50 is my ideal at 30 minutes and 2.00-2.40 with 1 goal at half time.
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@bottlabroon It was 1.86 at 7 minutes.
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@alastair-todd
Exactly that Alistair, although if you got a goal within 2 minutes of entry I’m a little surprised you could only get £4.90 after removing liability? I’m guessing it was a fairly short price to start with?Personally I never enter until the price has increased significantly with no goals after at least 23 minutes.
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@bottlabroon You're absolutely right of course, I suppose it didn't help trying to have a family supper while pretending that I wasn't actually following a Swedish football match at the same time.
When you say you 'leave the profit on the overs', I take it I should have layed O2.5 with £10 when the first goal went in (having backed it with £10) which would have given me £4.90 profit if it won or £0 if it had lost. There is nothing more that can be done with that particular trade though is there, once you have offset the back bet with the equal lay bet? -
@alastair-todd
Priority number 1 (for me) Alistair is get your liability out if you can leave a decent profit.
I may well have let the match run like you but if I did I would take the liability out and leave all the profit on the overs. Wouldn’t have won anything in this instance but wouldn’t have lost either.At the end of the day it’s just one trade in isolation but if I can escape one of the inevitable losing games I know I will get without actually losing anything it feels like a win to me.
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I've just played a really excellent example of how NOT to do this, even though your guidance is absolutely clear. For a start I entered the trade (with only £10 mercifully) at 7 minutes because there was lots of action immediately, and the first goal came at 9 minutes. What I should have done then was green up for a free bet and I would have locked in a 49% profit which would have been fine for 2 minutes work. Instead, because I was so sure there would be at least another goal quite quickly (and COO was over 15 or 20 quite early on) I let it run, and run, and run....until the game ended for the princely sum of -£10. Kicking myself, although at least I'll know to do it properly next time and stick to the rules! Keep up the good work by the way.
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@martin-walker
I usually work on the basis of 1 rating point per 3 minutes played for my strategies Martin.
So 5 at 15 mins, 10 at 30 mins, 15 at 45 mins, 20 at 60 mins, 25 at 75 mins etc,It's a rough & ready tool but better than nothing for me as I rarely watch matches I'm trading. I know of another succesful trader who only uses shots on target.
My database has all the half time stats (as well as full time) and it's always improved my profits when testing 2nd half strategies but I don't think you put can any scientific store in them. At the end of the day we're relying on somebody in the stands deciding if a shot is on or off target, if a hoof into the box is actually a goal attempt or cross etc. It's really just a way of trying to ensure some attacking intent for me.
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COO is interesting as ive been looking for a stat to track at point of entry on my spreadsheets to see if theres any correlation between inplay and my results
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Thanks this fits perfectly with a couple of my filters. Great advice.
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I though it might be something like that. Thank you for taking the time to answer, much appreciated
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Hi Matt,
It's combined totals, It doesn't matter to me if it's all for one team or equally distributed. As long as the combined match total corners & shots hits my number I'm happy.
Personally, I use a paid for site tracking IP stats but I'm sure Flashscores or something similar would do the job equally well. I'm a bit wary of bookmaker sites on IP stats as I've a feeling they often get inflated but I've no evidence of that.
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First stupid questions
Just little ones about your 'COO' system;
Do you care how these numbers are distributed between the two teams or just that they are there? Also do you use just one site for getting the COO rating, if so which, or do you compare several, if so then what if one shows COO of 10 and another shows COO of 8?
Thanks in advance
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Excellent post, many thanks for the in depth explanation. Apologies for being one of those who was asking questions during trading, will save them for a better time in future
Great to have experienced voices on here for the newer traders like me. Everyone has to find their own way to do things, as you say, but I do believe that I have sped along in my learning by listening to people like yourself.
I'm fairly sure I will be asking you some stupid questions in the future
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@bottlabroon nice one mate ive been working on something similar and this will help. thanks
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@liam-willis said in Over 2.5 Trading:
great post mate just one question have you got an exit point if no goals are scored or do you just let it run til the 80 min same as 1 goal scored then lcs.
Exactly that Liam. I never exit trades for a loss I prefer to stay in and hope a late goal can bail me out. No right or wrong way though, just what suits our individual temperament.
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great post mate just one question have you got an exit point if no goals are scored or do you just let it run til the 80 min same as 1 goal scored then lcs.