Started From the Bottom (Almost)
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Nothing selection wise from me today but just wanted to post a couple of thoughts on a trade from the weekend.
I entered the Roma v Sampdoria game at the weekend for a late goal which came in the 72nd minute, but the idea for this post pricked my interest after seeing a couple of comments in the football thread at the time. For those who weren't following the game, the conditions were awful, the rain was teeming down and the pitch was beginning to look a bit heavy, particularly in the middle third. I saw a couple of posts suggesting that they were considering staying away because of the weather and while it was a concern for me as well, I didn't want to rule the trade out completely.
I understand that a lot of traders tend to have a blanket 'no trade' on any, shall we say, unforseen circumstances in games for example poor playing conditions and red cards etc. but I take a slightly different approach in terms of trying to read what is actually happening in the game. I think we are all aware that big incidents such as red cards and particularly extreme weather conditions (I will include heat in that as well) can massively change the dynamics of a game, but does that mean it should always be a blanket no? In fact in some of the games I've watched, things like red cards to the underdog can actually work to your favour if looking for a late goal.
So in this particular example, it was clear to me that I was to proceed with caution judging by the state of the weather. Ultimately I would still stick to Ryan's advice of 'what needs to happen?' and 'What do I want to see happening?' in order to make my decision on whether to enter or not. Roma were the favourites in this game so for me I wanted to see attacking intent from them and evidence that they were still creating space and clear cut openings. What I didn't want to see was that the weather conditions were seriously hindering the flow of the game.
I've already mentioned that the middle third was pretty heavy in terms of how the ball travelled which actually created uncertainty at times in the midfield but somehow meant the game became more open. Roma were still pushing players forward but leaving themselves quite open at the back which meant Sampdoria had already had a couple of very good counter attacking opportunities before I entered in the 68th minute. But in terms of the 'what needs to happen?' question I was seeing all the right signs and I also felt 1.75 was a good price to get in at the time.
The one thing I'm starting to love about a late LCS is that it really doesn't matter who the goal goes to, we can make predictions of which side might be pushing for a goal to form the basis of our intention to trade but if a goal goes in for the underdog of someone's arse, do we really care?
The important take away from any trade either green or red I think is to look back after the game and think, would I take that trade again and ultimately that answer needs to be yes quite a lot more often than it would be no. For me it was important in this trade in particular that if it was to lose, that it wouldnt be because of the weather but because of missed opportunities or just good old fashioned bad luck.
Having said all that though, I do completely understand why some traders opt to take the safe route and decide against trading when game changing events occur. Personally, I still feel quite new to this but I also think I'm getting better at reading games all the time. I'm also well aware that some games, no matter how well I think I've read them, will go against me in certain situations and maybe over a longer period I may look back and change my outlook. For the time being though I think I'm starting to trust my instincts more than ever and I hope that continues.
To sum up then, I guess that in my opinion a red card, adverse weather conditions or a big injury may not always mean the end of an opportunity but in fact it may create a new one. Of course this won't happen every time, in fact I would imagine that in most cases I may decide against taking the trade, especially if I can see that it is having even the slightest effect on the game however there's always a chance that it could still work in my favour.
This isn't meant to be a preachy post in any way, just more of an insight in to my thought process in certain situations and I hope it's useful, it certainly is for me to analyse these types of trades.
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@matthew-biggins I've never had an issue with the Northern Irish League and used it a far few times in the past.
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With Juve and Barca both winning I'm calling it a day to settle in and watch the darts.
Just under a point green today from 2 winning trades in the Roma and Leicester games. Lost a point on the Lazio game.
Will try and do a bit of analysis tomorrow, particularly on that Roma game and why I decided to go in, despite the conditions.
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Break even day from just the two trades yesterday. LTD in the Leipzig game cancelled out a red in the Aberdeen game.
Today's potentials are below. Quite a busy day today;
Inter v Crotone
Eindhoven v Cambuur
Roma v Sampdoria
Cagilari v Napoli
Genoa v Lazio
Alaves v Atletico Madrid
Kayserispor v Besiktas
Chelsea v Man City
Bayern v Mainz
Benevento v AC Milan
Santa Clara v Benfica
Olympiakos v AEK
Juventus v Udinese
Huesca v Barcelona
Porto v MoreirenseA lot to go at there, so not rushing to get in will be the order of the day. Good luck everyone chasing the green.
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Goals came a bit too early in the Man U game yesterday but a fair few selections to go at today. Might not get much chance to do as many as I would like today but here are the selections anyway.
All LTD/LCS
Erzurum v Gaziantep - Turkey Super Lig
Spurs v Leeds - England Premier League
Bielefeld v Monchengladbach - Germany Bundesliga
Brackley v Kettering - England National League
Aberdeen v Dundee Utd - Scottish Premiership
Betis v Sevilla - Spain La Liga
Galatasaray v Antalyaspor - Turkey Super Lig
Stuttgart v Leipzig - Germany Bundesliga
West Brom v Arsenal - England Premier League
Real Madrid v Celts Vigo - Spain La LigaJust an interesting point/question that I’ve noticed. Every weekend seems to throw up a lot of games from the Northern Irish league. I’ve deliberately not added them to my list as I generally find I don’t know too much about the league and the prices never seem to be that great. It would appear that it’s a bit like when I used to play Sunday morning football and half the league would be decent and the other half would be awful. Has anyone touched that league at all and if so is there success to be had there or am I right to be leaving them off? With the amount of games on today it’s not like I will miss them, just curious.
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@matthew-biggins Nice update I'm with you on updating weekly especially if working full time or have something specific to write about
Good luck in 2021
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@matthew-biggins nice work mate. I was intending to update mine today but you know hangovers and all that
good luck going forward in 2021. 
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To borrow one of the worst and most over-used Facebook/Insta cliche's.....New Year New Me......
Right, now that I've just been sick in my own mouth.....the trading stuff.
So I'm starting the new year with a focus on late goals on min stakes. I've mentioned this to a couple of people on here privately about how I need to stop relying on others and basically work on something completely my own.
I guess it's not completely my own as I'm hardly re-inventing the wheel, but to me it feels like a step in the right direction.
So with that, just the one game for today and I'll be looking at Man Utd v Aston Villa for a late LTD/LCS.
p.s I've blown a bit hot and cold with this thread tbh but I think I'll stick to a weekly-ish update in terms of how and why I've traded games but I'll try and post my potential selections each day. I feel like working full-time makes it difficult for me to give a daily deep dive, plus I think it will help my long-term thinking too.
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@matthew-biggins Nice read this, looking forward to the next steps buddy
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So, I've been neglecting this recently but mainly because there's not been a great deal to report in all honestly. There's been a lot of testing and not a great deal of trading over the last couple of weeks mainly due to the international break.
I've seen this as an opportunity to work out how best to attack the absolute feast of football that's coming up over the next month or so. It kind of became apparent that I'd need to come up with some kind of plan given I was a bit like a rabbit in the headlights with all the football at the weekend. I know a couple of other people have mentioned that Saturday's and Sunday's tend to be their least profitable days because of how much there is going on.
The trades I have done haven't always been the right ones over recent weeks and the profits have seen a steady decline, despite the last post detailing the four winning trades a couple of weeks ago. I think this is because I may be trying to do too much.
Reviewing the last few weeks results, the late lcs/ltd selections have been performing the best so this is where my focus will be for the next week or so. I know I need to stick to this, even if the variance takes a negative turn. Going into a period of what is likely to be a congested list of potential trades, falling back into the scatter gun approach is going to wipe out any profit I've got left. I've already proved to myself that my tendency to stray away from the plan is affecting my overall p/l so it's only going to get worse the more games there are.
I've reduced my stakes to what they were a couple of months ago and I'm ready to go again. The long-term approach is improving my mindset and my positivity to trading. Building the bank organically I'm hoping will be another step towards that long-term profitability.
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@matthew-biggins Nicely done here, profit as well and sounds like a good weekend around trading with friends as well which is what we like to see.
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Just the 4 trades this weekend, there were more I could have looked at and I'll go into the reasons for why I didn't a bit more deeply further down.
So starting with Saturday. 2 trades as below
LTD on 60mins @ 2.93 - Brest v Zhodino +0.31pts
LTD on 60mins @ 3.15 - Hacken v Ostersunds +0.75ptsSo overall 1pt green on Saturday. Both the above games were exactly what we like to see as traders, set up nicely from the pre-game stats, both really open games and teams with something to play for. The Hacken game was one way traffic really and the goal eventually came on 83 mins. Probably should have checked the price for another goal rather than just going for a LTD on the Brest game. Both teams were pretty gung-ho in their approach with the idea of defending pretty much going out of the window. Just a shame the market didn't move as much as I wanted it to after the goal for the away side. Having said that, I've picked the right game but just the wrong approach which I think I can probably live with at this stage.
Sunday was pretty similar one scratch and one green trade.
LTD on 60mins @ 3.02 - FC Nitra v Zilina +0.31pts
LTD on 60mins @ 2.78 - Oostende v Club Brugge +0.78ptsI did actually have a few more trades on the list on both days however, Saturday evening was taken up by the Blades (waste of bloody time btw) and a few drinks over skype with friends. Sunday was a bit different in that I got to a point in the afternoon where I felt like I couldn't focus and felt like I was getting easily distracted. Given the week I'd had and the fact I was green for the weekend albeit small, I decided to call it instead of forcing anything.
I guess this is what I quite like about doing this part-time as a second income. I'm not relying on this in terms of money so I feel like it's optional for me if I trade or not. I suppose that could be perceived as a rather blase attitude to trading but I feel that the hours I do spend trading I have to be 100% focussed on it. If I can tell I'm not then I'll leave it and come back to it another time.
Onto the stuff I'm testing. My 'set and forget' strategy is a bit more like a value back on the favourite at HT/Second Half. I feel like someone on here has a similar strategy but maybe trades out after the goal, I know Frode does this and I'm pretty sure there is someone else (sorry the name escapes me) but I guess mine is a bit more of an experiment to see how much more value there is in staying in for the full profit. As I say this was born out of me just messing about with tiny stakes with the money I have to put in 365 to watch the games.
I have started using £2 stakes for these now and only one qualified at the weekend. I backed Roma @ 1.9 on 60 mins. which came in for £1.82 profit. The only 2 other qualifiers since properly recording came earlier in the week, both of which were winners as well. Very very early days with this one but I feel like I'm getting better at reading the games which means should lead to me making the correct decisions at the correct time.
The under 2.5 strategy was a bit of a mixed bag. 6 qualifiers and 4 came without a goal in the first 15 minutes. Essentially I'm looking to have my liability out by 15 minutes and then green up at 20. Looking for games no lower than evens at kick off. Admittedly, I didn't follow these as closely this weekend due to the other stuff I was watching at the time these games were playing so I've only recorded the events of the game rather than the price movement. Something to look at more closely in the future as I'm wary of taking on too much at the same time. Improving my actual trading and testing my back the favourite strategy is taking precedent at the moment.
I've booked some time off work this week and next week so I think I will use this time wisely and spend a few of these days attempting a day in the life of a pro trader, so any tips are welcome in terms of how you guys like to split your days up. I think it will be good to use the time to take in some extra learning as well
Could be a quiet week with all the internationals but here's to a green week for everyone.
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Nice stuff @Matthew-Biggins good read and I look forward to following along on what I hope will be your journey into full time trading. Don’t ever worry about rambling either bro just write and get it out.
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@matthew-biggins Add forum time into your plan buddy
I've found batching my time for a lot of things in life has made me more successful (not just profitable trades either), I've not ever had the perfect week in terms of exact times spent doing the exact things but I've been a lot more disciplined with my time and its allowed me to have a lot of fun with friends and family then when I come to trade be here on the forum I am 100% on that
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@chris-osborne definitely go for it mate. I enjoy reading them, I think there's nuggets to pick out from all of them on here. Definitely allows you to expand a lot more on your trades, I always worry that I'm hijacking the Football thread if I say too much on there haha.
I agree about our starts to the month though, Chris. Just judging from the posts in the other threads, I think we've probably been on similar trades. Hopefully we've turned a corner now.
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@ryan-carruthers good to hear mate.
I'm definitely open for advice and pointers as well which I think is another benefit of doing something like this. There's bound to be things that I've not recognised about my trading that someone from the outside looking in can notice and help me improve.
I also meant to mention in my post that I seem to be spending too much time on the forum when I should be focussing on my trades. It's definitely an additional unwanted factor that can definitely affect over-thinking. Again, it's something that I wasn't doing so much of last month.
Fingers crossed for a better weekend.
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@ryan-carruthers Yes I do as well not to hijack Matthew's thread will look at it over International Break
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@chris-osborne That would be wicked
I do love reading this blogs / progress logs from traders
