Started From the Bottom (Almost)
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@Matthew-Biggins I'm torn between wanting you to succeed with your strategy and enjoying the song choices better when you don't .. New Order then Artic Monkeys on a roll even though you're not :grimacing_face:
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Had the proper face on for the first time in a long time yesterday. Three games where the goal goes in within seconds of me deciding to enter. Thankfully, there's a lot to go at tonight so fingers crossed I can have a better night tonight.
Tonights;
Galatasaray v Denizilspor
Opava v Sparta Prague
Lugano v Young Boys
Man City v Aston Villa
Brentford v Luton
Ferencvaros v DVTK
Augsburg v Bayern
Leipzig v Union Berlin
Antwerp v Cercle Brugge
Club Brugge v Oostende
Fulham v Man Utd
Livingston v Celtic -
Nothing yesterday.
Today's picks
Zagreb v Rijeka
Monchengladbach v Bremen
Mainz v Wolfsburg
Alaves v Sevilla -
@matthew-biggins Now that is a tune!
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Nothing too specific for my analysis this week so just going to jot down a couple of random thoughts.
Overall, I'm still in a good mindset. I'm bouncing around break even at the moment and if I'm totally honest with myself I should be at least a couple of points better off than I am. The positive though is that I think I'm starting to understand why. Not taking the opportunities when they present themselves has affected profitability this month, however yesterday I really felt was a turning point in that regard. Obviously, I ended up slightly red but on another day I only take the two red trades and then I'm worse off. That's not to say they were bad trades, as mentioned in my previous post, every trade I would take again today and as mentioned, only an awful penalty prevented a green day.
I can pinpoint at least three trades from the last week that I hesitated going for, all of which would have seen me about 3 points better off, however, I'm happy to be having this problem now rather than 6 months further down the line. The Chelsea game on Saturday really should have been a no brainer and if that game was on Sunday, I'd have taken it with the mindset I was trading with. Obviously there was the Napoli game from a couple of weeks ago and the Spurs/Fulham game a week before that.
There's also been a couple of games I've gone in for in the last couple of weeks that have resulted in a red trade that I really shouldn't have gone in for. I've started to realise that I'm not taking into account how goals affect games before my entry point. For example there's been a couple of games where the favourite were 1-0 down and equalised after 65 mins and I've gone in for them to get a winner. The Dortmund game on Saturday and a Leverkusen game from a couple of weeks ago was a perfect example of this.
As such I have changed my approach to how I'm now trading my late goals. If a goal comes after my initial entry point of 65 but the price wasn't quite there (essentially the equaliser comes before my desired price but after my initial entry point) then I'll not enter for the favourite to get the winner. If the equaliser comes before 65 mins, I'll still consider the trade for the winner as long as the momentum is still with the favourite and there is a chance of a goal for the underdog on the counter attack.
Not a massive deep dive this week, but hopefully taking these changes into this week and beyond I can start to see more consistent positive results.
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About half a point down from yesterday, only the most utterly abysmal penalty in the Plzen game prevented a green day. Olympiacos and Lyon were the two green trades of the day and there was almost a VAR that went against me in France that would have just about summed up my day. Other red came in the Atalanta game. Pretty happy with all four of those trades overall though.
Only one song to sum up that penalty.
Today's selections;
Fenerbahce v Ankaragucu
Cagliari v AC Milan
Arsenal v Newcastle -
A point down from just the Dortmund game yesterday. Quite a frustrating day really with a mixture of goals coming too early and prices not quite being right. Most frustrating of all was the Chelsea game, the red card made me think twice and then there was the over-thinking factor again. However just as I decided to enter, in goes the goal. Definitely need to have a look at how I trade the English games especially if it's going to alter my long term profitability.
Today's list;
Napoli v Fiorentina
Motherwell v Rangers
Olympiacos v Giannina
Sheff Utd v Spurs
Bayern v Freiburg
Sepsi v Cluj
Cercle Brugge v St Liege
Atalanta v Genoa
Beerschot v Club Brugge
Ostrava v Sparta Prague
Man City v Crystal Palace
AEK v Atromitos
Lyon v Metz -
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Just under 2 points from 2 trades last night. Goals in Bucharest and in Berlin saw to that. There was potential in the other 2 but decided to play safe after what has been a rather quiet week and with a bumper weekend coming up.
Below are today's
Gaziantep v Kayserispor
Dortmund v Mainz
Celtic v Livingston
Ross County v Aberdeen
Emmen v Vitesse
Ferreira v Braga
Marseille v Nimes
Mouscron v Genk
Slavia Prague v Sigma
Fulham v Chelsea
Sparta Rotterdam v PSV
Angers v PSG
Alkmaar v Den Haag -
@matthew-biggins The Velvet Underground yeah mate.
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Was looking for an extra one in Romania last night but the goal came too early again. Odds were way off what I needed them to be in the Netherlands.
Tonight's selections below;
FCSB v Astra
Sporting v Rio Ave
Eupen v Anderlecht
Union Berlin v Leverkusen -
@matthew-biggins Love it!
You are quickly becoming the BTC DJ
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No trades last night, was tempted to get into the Man City game for another goal but the price put me off. Thankfully it did as the Sterling penalty miss would have sent me insane. Goal too early in Feyenoord and a classic example of my post from the other day in the Spurs game. I'm sure it will make up part of my analysis after the weekend as there was clearly a goal coming for Fulham but something in me wouldn't allow me to pull the trigger. I think this is perhaps the opposite of what I was talking about the other day as this time my thought process was more "well, surely Spurs will see this out?". Annoying but probably better that to keep my powder dry until the weekend in that situation.
Just two games today
Cluj v Academica Clinceni
Twente v Ajax -
@matthew-biggins said in Started From the Bottom (Almost):
@ryan-carruthers saw them supporting Liam Gallagher in Sheffield. Great band.
Just want to do something a little bit different with this so there may be some more songs coming up......the life of a betfair trader through the medium of song
Bring that on for sure Matt.
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@ryan-carruthers saw them supporting Liam Gallagher in Sheffield. Great band.
Just want to do something a little bit different with this so there may be some more songs coming up......the life of a betfair trader through the medium of song
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@matthew-biggins Great band these, this should be become the official BTC song for goals too soon lol
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Nothing doing last night. Goal came a tad too early as I was waiting for the price to get where I wanted.
Just the 3 games tonight;
Man City v Brighton
Feyenoord v Zwolle
Spurs v Fulham -
@martin-futter
Thanks Martin, I am in a good mindset at the moment. I won't lie there have been a couple of frustrating days but hopefully I'll be able to get on a run of greens rather than being stuck in a bit of inconsistency like I am at the moment. Early days though and I still think I'm picking the right trades.
