Correct Score Trading
-
Having a quick glance down the football forum, there doesn't seem to have been much discussion on correct score trading. As it's one of my favourite methods of trading, I'd thought I'd kick one off.
I appreciate correct score trading isn't for everybody, it's higher risk/higher reward than many are comfortable with and can result in longer losing runs so I find it fairly important to have that mindset.
I'll discuss below the various methods I use, in-play 4 goals, in-play 3 goals and in-play 2 goals, hereafter just referred to as IP4, IP3, IP2 but first I'd like to mention staking. It's important to remember that this is fairly high risk and the staking should reflect this. I run a separate bank for my correct score trading and my total stake/risk/outlay is NEVER more than 1% of that bank on any match.
My total stake is broken down into 3 segments as follows:
25% of stake dutching correct scores
25% of stake over x.5 goals, the market is the corresponding one to the target scores so an IP4 trade would be over 3.5, an IP2 trade at 0-0 would be over 1.5 etc etc
50% of stake held back for late goal.All methods are played in a similar way with a correct score dutch of target scores, a corresponding over x.5 goals bet and a late goal bet if I'm 2 or more goals away from my landing my overs bet at 80 minutes (basically an attempt to break even on the match) so no point doing if I'm only 1 goal away as another goal will land it.
In terms of closing the trade, I would usually do the following:
Hitting Target Score - It's important to remember that the way I play this trade means that I have a guaranteed overall profit as soon as I hit a target score by dint of the overs portion of the bet having landed so I can be a little more flexible on my correct score dutch. If the correct score price when the target score lands means I can trade out for a free bet then I will remove my liability, the only time that won't happen is with very quick goals so for example I enter an IP3 trade at 30 minutes and get 3 goals on 32, 36, 43 minutes - it's likely that the current score price won't allow me remove my liability with my sitting profit on that score and in that case I will wait for the price to contract to a level I can get out of the market for zero/scratch - remember this is risk free as i've already banked the overs bet. Having secured a free bet on that market I will generally wait for the price to go below 2.00 and then start to drip lay out for an equal profit.
Overs Bet - I never trade out of this portion after goals and always let it run to completion, it's landing this part of the trade that gives me flexibility on the correct score trade and protects me if I hit a target score and then another lands before the market unsuspends or I can trade out.
Late Goal - If I still need 2 goals or more to land the overs part at 80 minutes then I will lay the current score below 2.00. Some discretion is need here and every situation is different, I want to see some action in the game and I'm particularly nervous on a 2-0/0-2 scoreline when a team wants to sit back and protect it.
I realise all that may sound pretty complicated but in practice it's fairly simple although (as I guess others have found) it can be difficult to create strict rules on something you often play by intuition.
So on to the 3 methods, IP4, IP3 & IP2 and what I look for and how I play them, the potential trades are generated from my preset filters on the database I work with but if there proves sufficient interest in the future then I'm fairly sure they could be similarly replicated with BTC data.
First I'd like to mention what I term my 'Coo' rating. This is simply the match total of Corners, Off target shots and On target shots. So a match where the home team had 3 corners, 5 shots off target and 2 shots on target, the away team had 1 corner, 2 shots off target and 0 shots on target would give a Coo rating of 13 (3+5+2+1+2+0). I need to ensure some action when entering the trade.
IP4
Entry point - 15 minutes with score 0-0
Coo rating - Minimum 5
25% stake Correct score dutch of 3-1, 2-2, 1-3
25% stake over 3.5 goals
50% stake held back for late goal if needed.IP3 - Option 1
Entry Point - 30 minutes with score 0-0
Coo rating - Minimum 10
25% stake Correct Score dutch of 2-1, 1-2 and 3-0 (0-3 instead of 3-0 if away favourites with better in play stats)
25% stake Over 2.5 Goals
50% stake held back for late goal if needed.IP3 - Option 2
Entry Point - Half Time with score 1-0 or 0-1
Coo rating - Minimum 15
25% stake Correct Score dutch of 2-1, 1-2 and 3-0/0-3 (depending which team has scored the only goal)
25% stake Over 2.5 Goals at 2,.00 or greater
50% stake held back for late goal if needed.IP2
Entry Point - Half Time with score 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1
Coo rating - Minimum 15
25% stake Correct Score dutch of 2 scores that represent 2 goals to the favourite (preferably with better IP stats) and 1 goal each. So 0-0 with home fav would be 2-0 & 1-1. 1-0 with away fav would be 2-1/1-2 etc.
25% stake Over 1.5 or 2.5 Goals (depending if 0-0 or 1 goal already) at 2.00 or greater.
50% stake held back for late goal if needed.Phew
Happy to answer any questions and enter into discussion over correct score trading although I realise it won't be for everybody. I will try and post my shortlists and some live examples - although I'm unsure of forum etiquette and whether any live examples should stay in this thread or go in the general football trading thread?
It's important to note on my shortlists that often a match will often qualify for more than 1 method but I will only ever play one. So if I enter an IP4 I won't then enter an IP3 OR IP2 on that particular match but if say an IP4 qualifier didn't have the Coo rating at 15 minutes or an early goal then it might still qualify for an IP3 at 30 mins or Half Time or failing that an IP2 at half time.
Tonights shorlists are@
IP4
NoneIP3
None (Sandnes Ulf would have qualified but postponed)IP2
16.30 Finland - Haka v Mariehamn
17.00 Norway - Ranheim v JervFinal point, I will list my qualifiers warts n all but most of my trading will be in the actual bigger European leagues. Liquidity in the correct score markets of the smaller leagues can be awful!
-
how do you work out which teams go into ip4 ip3 and ip2 thanks
-
@matt-ayles There's some gold in the older threads
-
Appreciate this is an older thread but I did a trade yesterday and it has triggered a potential strategy in my head (albeit the kind of strategy that requires you spotting an opportunity rather than your every day strategy).
It was the Aus W v USA W match in the Olympics. Half time scoreline 3-1 to the US who were dominant.
I didn't realise that Betfair only offer correct scores up to 3 goals each, and the "any other away score" option was trading at 1.53. Given the state of play, I thought the US scoring a 4th was highly likely so I backed this market. Sure enough they went 4-1 up in the 51st minute and I greened up for +2.5 points.
Have you done any research on how many teams that score exactly 3 first half goals that score a 4th in the second half? I think it would need to be 3-0 or 3-1 as you're backing the dominant side to win, so don't want the draw to come into play.
As i say this is more of a reactionary strategy. I'd be interested in your thoughts.
-
found this a great read mate, very very well laid out and informative.
-
IP2 Shortlist Haka v Mariehamn.
I won't be trading this game as I need to go out shortly but to show process.
HT Score 0-1 COO Rating 17
This then becomes a qualifier for an IP2 Trade however there is little value in the market, the over 2.5 goals is only 1.77 to back and I want 2.00 minimum to enter so that the overs portion covers my correct score dutch.IP2 Shortlist Ranheim v Jerv
Current score at 32 mins is 2-0 so this now can't qualify as I need 0-0/1-0/0-1 at half time to qualify for an IP2.So nothing today, I'll have a look tomorrow and post in the main football thread if any shortlist selections.
-
@bottlabroon fantastic, I did give a brief and simple strategy for how I trade correct scores the other day will try and dig it up
