Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Day has just come to the end and the only blip on the horizon to my actual trades was Dukla Prague who went to Jihlava1-3. This was only Jihlava's 2nd win of the season coming straight after shocking Plzen.
In any case great day.
Currently updating things now but Platense has just gone inplay and it's an away lay.
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Nice start. Next game at 13:00 in Israel.
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Worksheets updated for tomorrow. First game due to start at 01:00 this morning (a little under 40 mins)
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1 trade (away team lay) but won easily enough at decent odds. Could have been annoying as I jumped on around 1hr prior to kickoff when it looked as though odds would only go out but they actually steamed.#
As it was, irrelevant in the end and the tiered staking meant this was gain of a full pt.
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Disappointing state of affairs with Pune City who couldn't hit the net but 4 trades/bets did hit so loss not overwhelming.
First was Botev Plovdiv where opposition opposed @ 24.00 but they won easy enough.
Then came the small blip in India
Followed by a win in the Olimpija game in Slovenia @ 14.00.
Finally 2 lays of under 0.5 in Germany at odds between 4-5.00.As explained prev these are done on a tiered staking system similar to the maria way. Could not dream of taking odds in the 20:00's at level stakes.
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Sheet updated for tomorrow. Looking like any that do qualify are going to be long odds on the team lays. LCS or lay the under to be dictated by ht scoreline.
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Nothing active qualified for today. No team lays and no Longterm 'Overs' went in @ the half 0-0.
Having said that the inplay stats are QPR were so good I just had to take a nibble. Paid off in the end after a billion shots on target and a billion +1 off target although towards the end it was looking like one of THOSE games where you just wonder how the bloody ball stayed out haha!!
In any case it's one to 0-1 @ HT column I'm tracking for future purposes.
It's not a recorded trade on the sheet for these but I have recorded it under 'for real' as it was real for me.
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Feeling a tad better tonight which is good. So following on from yesterday Jong PSV were 0-0 @ HT and so I laid under 0.5. That camein.
Also Celta Vigo despite going behind shortly into the 2nd half, turned it around for the win.
And...
Estudiantes scored almost immediately from kick off in the next lay. 1-0 is how it stayed there.
So all in 3 winning lays.
Sheet updated for tomorrow.
As an aside I'm keeping track of the scorelines involving 1 goal before HT as well with inplay stats to back up another goal. Sittard was one of those today and thery won 3-0.
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Tomorrow's updated but that's all I can muster tonight.
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So I've finally removed a couple of things to the archive sheet. Not because they were rubbish but because they were much slower burners or potentially not as good as the other stuff I''ve stumbled on and as mentioned before, I simply don't have time for all of it.
Backs on the 'back' burner but data retained
Lays using pretty much same data but ever so slightly different in some cases due to a team not needing to win. These are where I'm putting a large chunk of my time. They are straight lays on a tiered staking system similar to that oh so famous thread known pretty much exclusively to the online betting circles.If all of a sudden teams winning at ht start losing on a more regular basis then I'll rethink but for now the stats speak for themselves. 2 in around 120 selections.
Original over 2.5 and over 1.5 have been put in the archive room. I used to think a 5 game history was good for this but I have very much changed my allegiance to the season long view as with lays. Form is temporary, class is permanent? I guess that's as true for attacking potency as overall strength of a team.
Longterm 'Over'view (over 1.5) Still going and will continue until I get a crazy amount of data.
New worksheet to be created using HT 0-0's on the above for over 0.5 inplay. 4/5 today (80%) with thje only loser being a fairly low odds lay of the under @ 2.36. Again operating with a tiered staking system as fully explained earlier in the post.
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Tough day on the lays but LCS on 0-0 scorelines for longterm over 1.5's did well enough.
Feel like s**t now so updates may take a while. Bloody lurgey!!
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An angle making itself more apparent is on the longterm over 1.5's 0-0 at ht doesn't often stay that way so far. 86% 43/50 with one or more goals 2h. based on over 1.5 odds pre-match this could be quite lucrative. Also cuts down pool of over 180 selections significantly but still provides enough.most weekends.
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Lays ended with small loss but there are patterns to see for possible improvement in the future.
Alternative lays swept.
Backs tanked.
Over 2.5 also tanked.
Over 1.5 mehWorking out tomorrows now.
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Sheet updated. First lay inplay right now is Osmanlispor.
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Overs did very well too but all 1.5's are still just about in the red.
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Bugger. Tours won their first away game of the season. At least the odds weren't high.
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Slow day Friday. One selection on the lays, nothing for backs and a small smattering of overs.
Tours is that lay and that's the only actual trade I'll be making.
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so no backs as Barca odds too low. Lay as I've already said, came in. Overs not great. On to tomorrow and how many games will go ahead in the face of the beast is anyone's guess!
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@Adam-Williams I have just messaged you on fb asking if you could add one of my current filters and remove the 4 defunct 1x2.............unless anyone is using those of course......?
Cheers
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Also, despite Leipzig losing a lead and the match after winning at ht this has been almost as rare as rocking horse poo. With it happening twice in over 100 selections thus far that means that over 98% of the time the bet would have won and more green could have been captured on each.
In addition to this 65 of those winning selections were only winning by 1 goal meaning that the additional which could have been obtained in those would more than likely outweigh the loss from that lowly 2%.
With that in mind, for the time being all lays will be placed pre-match and left to run regardless.
I'm pretty happy with these at present so I'm going to try and get the filters added so anyone wanting to follow can do so before I make my updates.
