Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Plenty of fixtures again and for any night owls there is one inplay now. I however need to go to bed. There's a new category/angle as mentioned above. 2nd half goal up to 55mins followed by another before 70 as happened twice today and it seems to produce another goal more often than not.
One of the supposed safest of trades seems to be going awry. The 1-0/0-1 HT score followed by a quick goal which always seemed to spell at least one more goal has hit the bricks recently. There are variations of what I can do (increase home odds, lessen minutes in which first goal can be scored) which improve things a little on the sheet but then I'm also aware of what I had seen previously where smaller home odds did better.
Initially I've lessened to time required for that first goal and removed all reds as they seem to be playing havoc with this scoreline. It's reduced an already tiny pool to an even smaller one but it's a work in progress. Certainly the strategy isn't make or break on this one angle. It's actually miniiscule to the overall picture. Ridiculous though, that pen is scored tonight and it puts a whole different complexion on things. As always, I'll follow the data wherever it leads me.
3rd FHG's not really happening at the moment but I'll keep tracking. When they do happen they seem so far away from what has been successful so far and that makes it hard to expand the initial pattern I was able to see.
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The annoyance of a couple of games falling just outside of my grasp today has led me to see if they may be able to be utilised in future.
Think there MAY be something in an early goal up to 55 followed by one up to 69 with a view to get in for 75th. Not much to go on and as with all these things it will take a long time to collect enough data to be truly meaningful.
Glenavon failed to score tonight after I got on, missing a pen in the process. How often do we say, can't legislate for crap penalty takers haha!
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
First chance I've had to post today but nothing has qualified so far anyway bar a game in Azerbaijan which had a home ave of 2.7. I've only just re-added over 2.4 to my filter so will test these for a month before I make a decision.
Was a FH winner though so good for the data.
16 potentials and so far not a single qualifying trade.
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First chance I've had to post today but nothing has qualified so far anyway bar a game in Azerbaijan which had a home ave of 2.7. I've only just re-added over 2.4 to my filter so will test these for a month before I make a decision.
Was a FH winner though so good for the data.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Not a massive amount to see today:
2-2 as a scoreline after HT just doesn't seem to work for most angles. No reason to rule out when there's been 2+ goals in the half as yet but when it's 2-2 @ HT or 2-2 early into the half with just one goal....I'm steering clear unless the data moves a hell of a long way.
Going in 5 mins earlier in FH market makes sense at present with 1-0 scoreline but not much sense on the 0-1 where it only adds one selection to the data.
Could add another 7 winners to my data going in at 65 for LCS from 0-1 HT but I don't feel comfortable doing this at present. S/r as is at 70th minute more than goood enough to accommodate the odds as they are at that time in the match.
The 1-2 after a quick early goal (just the one, seems problematic so far). A quick look at this data again shows only a 5/8 success rate there. 0-1 on the other hand shows a 100% success rate from the first 13 selections allowing for the first goal all the way up to 67th minute
At present, the hunt for 3rd goal doesn't seem to be affected although it's obv a short list right now.
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Mon is a new day:
So to go over it again
Home Ave 2.4+ not good for close games where more often than not the home team would not have scored many on the day. If I have to hypothesize at all I would say that when the home team is already scoring freely then their ave can be trusted more on the day. When it's late in the day and they've only scored less than half of what their average is.....well maybe they don't have their shooting boots on and it's one of those days.
Entry point for FHG (2nd) is now set at 24mins.
Time to push on.
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Going through todays. Wasn't the worst results in the world but it doesn't build so I expect more next week.
2 things I'm taking from it so far and one I'd already looked at but today made a mistake. Hopefully putting it on the page so to speak will help avoid future errors.
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2nd FHG entry point. Today I missed a couple of winners by mere minutes. While I wouldn't sacrafice too much value for a few winners I am always looking at what has come before in a bid to optimise. By making the entry point just 5 minutes earlier I can add another 5 winners to the melting point. 25mins in to the game I believe I should be looking at decent odds still so it's a trade off.
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I don't know why it is or how to possibly explain it but when you get past 2.3 home average it seems to the closer the score line the more likely you don't get a late goal. I noted this yesterday, wrote it on my spreadsheet and promptly forgot until after I was already into the Roma game. that was a mistake and one I would like to avoid in future.
Today was the day of VAR. From a pen turned down in Aus to a goal ruled out because someone's nutsack was just in front of the last defender to a frankly ridiculous betfair screw up that had me a little concerned but ultimately turned out fine. Same thing as the Man U game recently when ref blows up and then looks at VAR only to give a pen. Quite what the trading desk were playing at but from speaking to betfair on twitter they said they were having issues with the trding desk on that game.
2 youths in training gone rogue and fired on the spot when betfair found out a match that finished with 6 goals was still live and being traded 10 minutes after the game had finished haha!
So it could have gone well had VAR not reared it's ugly head and had I not made the Italian mistake.
Could have gone bad had VAR screwed me eve worse and I still made the mistake.As is it kind of went somewhere in between.
The important thing is I learn from the mistakes and keep collecting data. It's alright to think , well I'm moving in the right direction every time but sooner or later I have to actually reach my destination.
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Decent steady Saturday. Hope for even better Sunday:
Don't think there's a trade FH for me in Aus so want to be up for 8 looking at potential 2nd half trades.
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Here's what I'm looking at today. so many fixtures and so many different angles I'm finding:
Any questions ask
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For now it's just a case of adding the 2-0 HT scoreline as that's where most of the remaining results are. 14 more potential trades thus far and from those 11 winners after 70 mins.
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It's interesting to note here after looking at overall LCS for first goal 70+ is actually pretty good when you exclude a couple of scorelines.
First of all 0-0. I've had it with this one. Removing it has made such a huge difference during the barren spell and there are so many different things to look so it's not missed.
0-1/1-1/1-2 and now 1-0 I've already covered.
0-2 is terrible so far. Wouldn't touch it with a bargepole!
2-2, I've always had a problem with this scoreline.
For the rest it's another 22 selections with a s/r of over 80% after 70mins.
Getting to the point where this is going to keep me busy.
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Little bit more analysis done. Imprtant to note that I'mm basing this on a few initial results but it follows a pattern and is almost what I would expect to see.
1-0 HT where home team is a strong fave1.69 or less ave book price initially giving good indications for a goal 70mins+
Certainly something else to keep tracking.
I'm also going to reintroduce the home averages of 2.5 or over into my filter as when teams have already scored in the half this particular filter is showing to make little difference. Only when teams are going out with a clean slate so to speak is it having a bigger impact.
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Fri Fodder:
Food for thought:
Home averages as high as 2.4 seem to work much better when the teams have already displayed their efficiency in front of the net in the half. For HT scores of 01/1-2/1-1 to lay 70th minute I have found a max of 2.3 works much better.
Most of these trades are done under the assumption goals breed goals so no goals no trade. Goals come too early or late, no trade.
I have done my best to add a sort of key under the fixtures but any questions please ask.
When looking at odds i will always refer to oddsportal.com which after this place has almost become my bible haha!
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Absolutely zero, zilch, nadder, nuttin on the filter tomorrow.
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Just the one qualifying today is a green day although a quick look at whether a late goal could still have been plowed in Samsunspor after the 6th came a couple minutes too early.....suggests it could.
Good to see @Mark-Gorton got on it in any case.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Overnighter in case anyone is up haha!
Not Paraguay. Too early in the league.
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Overnighter in case anyone is up haha!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Every day a lesson. Not really sure that applies today.
Altay goals were coming thick and fast. Home team needed goals and away team received red. I know red cards have a bad press but I keep tracking and I think there is more relevance when the card goes to home team here.
In any case, goals simply dried up and it ended 1-3 same as when I entered.
Volendam losing 0-1 but odds poor. Hung on too long and missed it. Then again going in on short odds with only minimal data to back it up and a smaller than normal bank wouldn't be seen as sensible. So probably the right call.
Give it 100 selections including these odds and maybe I'd act differently.
From 0-1 that game ended 3-2. Ridic!
Also extends a run I see from 0-0 to 0-1 early in the half that runs 100% for another goal initially.
Charlton 1-1 @ HT conceded an early goal. Despite it being lower league UK, this one I think was fine in principle. Simply didn't happen.
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Easier when not a tonne of updates to make after a weekend. Getting these out there now. One day I'll be able to do this in the morning as my main job haha!
All other than Oldham right now look ripe for the FH trade as well as SH should match circumstances dictate. Oldham just SH unless their odds steam in a little.
