Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Yesterday was disappointing. Only 3 trades and one loss. Could have been 4 trades and one loss but I was doing something more important when Grasshoppers qualified. I need to find a way to do the somthing more important and not miss too many trades eespecially during a sticky patch.
That said it was just one trade.
The most consequential thing to come out of yesterday was the 2-0 scoreline hitting roughly break even on the 2nd good league since I started this thing in Dec 2020. I think to myself that scoreline is struggling but it's really not. Just now Belgium and Italy out of many many leagues where I'm pausing it.
I think, and it's not something I particuarly gave much credence to a while ago, that in some ways, the more data you collect, there are that many more variables to consider when looking at what works and what doesn't. Also, if your micro analysing like me there will be things like pauses on leagues which eventually come good. It's only natural that you are going to get some scorelines which suffer more in certain leagues out of a smallish number of games.
Who's to say the next 20 games 2-0 @ HT in Italy don''t all have a goal. It will take around 2 years for this to happen though based on current frequency so I think I can cope with the loss of that revenue while I monitor things from afar.
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Saturday ongoing but this is Sunday:
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Sat:
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Friday:
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):
In any case, one potential tonight to get back on the right track:
I've actually just looked again. There's not a single scenario that could play out where this would qualify on current data.
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In any case, one potential tonight to get back on the right track:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Always easier to see things with a clearer head the day after. I decided to look into average lay odds (revers of the book price so not exact) for certain leagues and found that if I'd been a bit more brutal leagues like some of the Kakkonen ones would have been off the books some time ago. This would ultimately have left the Singapore game as an outlier and one I'd have left alone. Didn't happen but not ready to pause Singapore yet.
What I hadn't taken into account is just because a league has better ave losing odds than the ones that win in a variable staking system it simply means your winning less most of the time.
Ger Regionalliga Bayern will need 1 or 2 more favourable results to do again but it's ok. There were plenty of shots there and there should have been a goal.
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Updating Sundays,Mondays & Tuesdays in one hit:
So Poland 1 the only trade not taken due to a lack of data.
Today was nasty. Hope for better soon. Singapore and Ger Regionalliga Bayern in a state of pause right now. Not removed from main qualifiers from the sheet as only one loss but wouldn't touch either presently.
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Both Singapore and Ger Regionalliga Bayern on pause after poor results and not enough days to justify at present.
Singapore I have more faith in long term and a little more data but odds normally high.
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A decent amount for a Tuesday coming up!
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Ok so this is what my current data gave me for Sat:
Not too far different from the actual.
Only differences are Freiburg which was in outlier territory due to match odds. Peru & Argentina B need more data.
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New bank high - New stakes once more:
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Hopefully get a couple tonight. Would be good.
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Still a new bank high despite the latest setback:
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Made about £1 thanks to Roma
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Today 7/8 and a new bank high although I'll be updating for a while:
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):
Yesterday largely break even from 5 trades and while I know my style of micro analysing and micro managing everything baffles many, Net Eerste has now become slightly unprofitable over more than a year on the 0-1 scoreline. Something similar happened in Belgium recently with the 2-0. I removed it and low and behold the next match also lost.
0-1 in Net 2nd tier off the table until it turns and you're probably loooking at that being at least another year before I'm happy to reinstate!
It might baffle many of us Richard but its coming together for you so it works for your mindset
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So data when updated to include those I wasn't confident playing yet and taking out the 0-1 in Netherlands. Going forward it would be:
FC Juniors - Outlier
Sporting Cristal - Not enough data for Peru -
Yesterday largely break even from 5 trades and while I know my style of micro analysing and micro managing everything baffles many, Net Eerste has now become slightly unprofitable over more than a year on the 0-1 scoreline. Something similar happened in Belgium recently with the 2-0. I removed it and low and behold the next match also lost.
0-1 in Net 2nd tier off the table until it turns and you're probably loooking at that being at least another year before I'm happy to reinstate!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0
