Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
For tomorrow - Lay Under 1.5:
Min 3.15 - Max 11.00
2-2. Heading in the right direction again.
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For tomorrow - Lay Under 1.5:
Min 3.15 - Max 11.00
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
As promised. Highlights the difficult nature of this month so far but with a weekend and a Fri to go profit can still be made.
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I had a go at simplifying my home lay system today and while it is possible with the same sort of league exclusion, the home lay thing I'm working on now has I believe the potential to be better.
I'm obviously not getting rid of the data. It's valuable. A whole years worth shows it works. I am however about to stop collecting more data for now as, with the other 4 in my planned portfolio, it's just too much work.
I'll keep the filter, I'll archive the data and if anyone wants it give me a shout.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
Lay Under 1.5 Randers
1-2, stopped the rot
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Lay Under 1.5 Randers
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Rubbish weekend. I'll update and post tomorrow.
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Can't make up yesterdays today as only 3 but need a strong showing. Lay Under 1.5:
Min 3.15
SWI max 6.6
TUR max 11.00
ITA max 7.4 -
@Richard-Latimer bit of a shitshow today. 70% on 10 selections.
5 games 0-0 @ HT
2 FT 0-0's which is worst in data since I started looking last April.
All losers had high XG.
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Busy weekend:
Lay Under 1.5 if:
Min price 3.15
Max
NET Eerste 7.0
AUS A-league 6.6
GER (Stuttgart vs Wolfsburg) 7.4
ENG 11.00
NET Eredivisie (PSV vs Utrecht) 11.00
AUS Bundesliga 11.00
SWI 6.6
GER (Leverkusen vs Bayern) 8.4
NET Eredivisie (NAC vs Feyenoord) 7.4
HUN 7.4
BEL 11.00
FRA 7.4Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
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I've just realised that with the new competition going on I keep forgetting to post my under 1.5 lays in here.
Missed the loser in Ostrava and the winner in India today. It's all documented in the other thread.
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Lay Under 1.5
GER max 6.8
CRO & SPA max 7.4
SLO & AUS Bundesliga max 11.0 (never going to be anywhere close though).Min 3.15
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@Paul-Kelly-0 thanks mate but I'm working on something simpler anyway.
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@Richard-Latimer Yeah it makes perfect sense about the number of points scored. I hope that strat turns around for you. I've followed with interest and you've put a fair old effort into it.
Doh! I knew it was lay the under too!!
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@Paul-Kelly-0 Yeah but no home team can have scored more points than the away. Well it's laying the under.
I've only been tracking it 2 months less than the home lays and have more selections already.
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@Richard-Latimer I see. The two first main criteria are home teams averaging 1.9 points or less and away teams averaging 1.5 points or more. Thanks for taking the time to explain. Good luck with the new under 1.5 goal strategy.
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@Paul-Kelly-0 I've not actually prepared the sheet properly yet. Lausanne Ouchy wouldn't qualify anyway as they were in different leagues last season.
The 1.5 (it's actually 1.4) refers to home points scored, The -0.4 (0.5) is a ratio from top allowed which is 1.9 points. 2.1 is away points scored. 0.6 is the ratio from 2.1 to minimum allowed of 1.5 away points. 3.5 is combined number of points. -0.7 is how much greater the points differential is in favour of the away side.
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@Richard-Latimer Thanks Richard. I had seen that tab you mention which provides a list of things to exclude and I think I understand that sheet. I'm trying to understand some things on the ADOLOFFS spreadsheet. After the Home and Away columns there is a series of numbers. I understand that 20 is Overall Matches Played and 10 is H2H matches played but for example today's selection Lausanne Ouchy after H2H matches column the spreadsheet shows 1.5, -0.4, 2.1, 0.6, 3.5, -0.7 etc etc. These must be the criteria that selected Lausanne Ouchy but I can't figure out what those criteria are. Sorry if I've missed something really obvious but I'm interested in what raw data you use to get your initial selection before you apply the rules that exclude some matches.
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@Paul-Kelly-0 there's a tab just next v to the system itself which says (A) Rules.
Just be careful. I'm not confident right now.
