Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

This for tomorrow:

Lay Mallorca

Richard Latimer

Straight back on it:

Lay Roma

Richard Latimer

Numpty alert. Hungary was ruled out temporarily a while ago so if I had done it that would have been a mistake.

Richard Latimer

Norway Elteserien has finished on 0.14pts from 10 selections. Not sure I'll bother with this league in 2025. Another example of summer leagues being disappointing.

Richard Latimer

Tiny loss. 3/4

Richard Latimer

Sucker punched in Norway. Guess Molde didn't want the conference league

Leaving Hungary now

Richard Latimer

Time to get back on track.

Richard Latimer

Assuming the first 3 come in I reckon I'll do Ujpest as well. It really doesn't look to be one the Ferencvaros would be taking for granted given they are 2nd in the table with a couple games in hand.

Richard Latimer

Reason to be optimistic tomorrow:

All other than Hungary have good data and all have been good thus far. Hungary is the only one where this appears to be the first selection.

With that in mind probably do the 4 tomorrow.

Richard Latimer

Of course the German game won today didn't it haha!

Regardless, need to see a lot more before I consider it again for reals.

Richard Latimer

Looks like a barren Saturday:

As much as German Bundesliga is still technically a qualifier results have been too poor for me to consider it here.

Serbian game looks to have prohibitive odds. If that's the way it stays then I can count this as a small losing month but at least I got a load back last week.

December needs to be better....much much better!

nick

@Richard-Latimer Thanks for the reply Richard

Richard Latimer

@nick I know I can't avoid variance but clearly the aim is to minimise it.

If no logical reason within the parameters can be found to exclude a game or set of games then they must stand.

If the parameters are in the negative or the league is in the negative then this is something to exclude whether temporarily or eventually permanently.

nick

@Richard-Latimer I think that the international break has seem to have a real effect on results especially after this last one. I dont know if you have any results from previous ones over the past couple of years.
No break now until March so hopefully that will help things to settle down for the next few months.
Many unusual results this weekend, definite a time to reflect take a deep breath and go again.

How do you look at monitoring variance with this? You seemed to have bucked the trend this weekend winning when many others have been losing.

Richard Latimer

Swiss Super League and German Bundesliga still just about in profit but the s/r and yield are way down. Included in table but I'll be holding off on any decisions or trades until I see a change for better or worse.

Richard Latimer

Make that £260 down for Nov:

Richard Latimer

Currently the system is showing just under a 3pt profit for Nov with a 71% s/r. Been tough but good to see it turn around. Myself, I'm around £200 down now but I'll know the exact as soon as I've finished my updates.

Richard Latimer

That didn't feel easy but finally snapped the bad luck with a gain of around £400 this weekend.

Will post full update in a bit.

Richard Latimer

Still got the NEC lay to go this morning and here are the afteroon selections:

I'm still unsure as to whether to hit the Swiss game. Yield is good in this league due to average odds....but it could swing back easy enough at present.

Only 3 selections in Bulgarian league thus far but all winners.

Most leagues other than a few could easily be influenced by a big odds loser so to an extent I have to have faith and let the system ride unless I'm prepared to wait another year.

Tempted to do them all today as no leagues with less than 3 selections.

Richard Latimer