Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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This isn't just a flash in the pan either. I have data going back to last April now. It explains why every time I seemingly make a mistake I get burnt haha!
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3/3 as I posted on the football thread but more than that I think the unders system which has appeared out of nowhere from my almost selections needs a look at on it's own. Below is just the ones I've got on (I also missed a certified qualifier in Iceland and, in the interests of transparency, another low odds loser in Iceland) but as I hit more failures on the overs more unders are created:
58% on ave lay odds of 1.3
+5.59 points but the s/r has enabled a much higher staking on these than people would think to the point where one win is like 3x wins on the overs and one loss is generally 1/3 or less than a loss on the overs.S/r on the overs has been pitiful (although I'm pretty confident I know how to correct that moving forward) and I'm down by a fair wack this month....yet......this morning.......new bank high £495.50
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For tomorrow. Lay Under 1.5 in blue/Lay Over 1.5 in purple:
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@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:
Lay Under 1.5:
No amber warning signs on any of these. Doesn't mean they won't lose. Just means I won't be angry with myself if they do haha!
3/3
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Lay Under 1.5:
No amber warning signs on any of these. Doesn't mean they won't lose. Just means I won't be angry with myself if they do haha!
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So every day I'm getting closer and closer to what will be a very workable product. Where the only tweaks come from a small combination of the basic scoring/conceding stats.
There are no more stats I intend to look at. I'm looking at enough as is.
The tweaks are getting less but the margins are getting finer.
After last night's debacle in Iceland I did what I always do. Sit down and see what, if anything, went wrong. It was easy to see pretty quickly and it came from me being tired and trying to find a way to streamline my selection process easier.
I'd highlighted low/high figures in conditional formatting but hadn't taken into account a) the excluded numbers were still being counted in this so it skewed what I was looking at and b) the shade of green on display was already showing it to be a high number.
If this is confusing then basically I missed that I was looking at a bit of a statistical outlier (unusually high scoring figures for both home AND away). Not used that word in a while haha!
I hate those things as many will mock me for!
Sometimes the simplest solutions come in the easiest form. I simply need to go through the stats in question and put Amber (warning so to speak) in the applicable cells. Would have definitely saved money last night and found another potential over lay.
Well it found a potential over lay for if the situation comes up again but it didn't help my bank this time.
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Lay Under 1.5:
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@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:
Lay Under 1.5:
1-2
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Lay Under 1.5:
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It actually shows how bad my overs have performed in May (or how badly i have managed them) that my unders (1.5 over lays) have gone 50/50 and I'm still only around one and a bit points up in May.
I still have every confidence.
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Lay Under 1.5:
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2-0 and the tiniest tiniest new bank high
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One more today. Lay Under 1.5 Ranheim
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Lay Under 1.5 Ajax
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@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:
Lay Under 1.5:
3-3
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Lay Under 1.5:
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Quiet Saturday. Lay Under 1.5:
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Getting set early for the weekend so I can chill tomorrow evening onwards. Here are Fridays. All under 1.5 lays:
I'll post Saturdays later tonight and potentially even Sundays if I can get them done in time.
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The over lays are now exactly 50% for May which given the odds....is brilliant. And I missed one Iceland. Plus these have materialised from areas that were failing in the unders lays so there were potentially more.
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@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:
Football thread has gone a bit quiet of recent so I'm going to post here in addition.
Overnight Lay Over 1.5:
Real Salt Lake
0-0 and new bank high