Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer why not follow Keith’s lay u1.5 as set and forget which he posts in the football thread

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):

For tomorrow:

Lay Under 1.5

I'm looking at a big league like Serie A and I thought I had it figured out but I can't get it to do what I want. If one of the big leagues is a no go I'm not sure I'm where I want to be on the over 1.5. I think I need to go back to what has succeeded previously and find a way to fit it in without burning my personal life down.

I won't have any sort of a personal life if I don't sort this out so it's chicken and egg stuff!!

I will keep an eye on the set and forget thread but for now I don't have the luxury of set and forget.

[Richard Latimer]

For tomorrow:

Lay Under 1.5

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):

Just the one with a betfair market today:

Lay under 1.5

Ends 2-2

[Richard Latimer]

Just the one with a betfair market today:

Lay under 1.5

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):

Lay under 1.5:

2/3 small loss. Absolutely could have been worse on the 2nd day of these.

[Richard Latimer]

Lay under 1.5:

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer nice win to start!

[Richard Latimer]

I'm continuing to track my SHG without question BUT a) things have plateaud this month when I really need them to move and b) as mentioned several times over I need to find something more set and forget as my life picks up.

Had what I believe is a unique idea to look at the ratio between home scored and ave total goals in order to provide that extra edge. Think I may have come up with something although the stats are a little bit individual depending on the league for ratios and top bottom of the ave goals stats.

Trialling my idea tonight and also beginning to track this properly which will mean some more colour coding etc....on the sheet

Lay under 1.5 Torque v Rentistas (Uruguay) - Game is 01:15 this morning.

[Richard Latimer]

LCS Paks (Hungary) 1-1
LCS Hougang (Singapore) 1-1

[Richard Latimer]

@james-rome said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):

Why I am focusing on over 1.5 set forget just don't have time and don't want to be out with my partner and friends and be on my phone. During lock down was fine had the time but now don't. Why my match betting has also fallen off (more the inplay free gets) its important to have a balance.

Yeah, I think you have to take the slight downturn in potential profits to be able to enjoy what you do earn.

[A Former User]

Why I am focusing on over 1.5 set forget just don't have time and don't want to be out with my partner and friends and be on my phone. During lock down was fine had the time but now don't. Why my match betting has also fallen off (more the inplay free gets) its important to have a balance.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm starting to realise something else too and that's that while the data for over 1.5 is never going to be as good as the data for SHG it's a whole lot easier to implement now that my life is finally beginning over again (I'm properly seeing someone now and not going to mess it up for this or anything else!).

Also, presently at least, I can't match my data for real life trades so I'm guessing it wouldn't be that much different.

I think during times where I know I'm going to be around at least I have to look at the over 1.5 and specifically leagues that are good for this.

[Richard Latimer]

Yesterday was disappointing. Only 3 trades and one loss. Could have been 4 trades and one loss but I was doing something more important when Grasshoppers qualified. I need to find a way to do the somthing more important and not miss too many trades eespecially during a sticky patch.

That said it was just one trade.

The most consequential thing to come out of yesterday was the 2-0 scoreline hitting roughly break even on the 2nd good league since I started this thing in Dec 2020. I think to myself that scoreline is struggling but it's really not. Just now Belgium and Italy out of many many leagues where I'm pausing it.

I think, and it's not something I particuarly gave much credence to a while ago, that in some ways, the more data you collect, there are that many more variables to consider when looking at what works and what doesn't. Also, if your micro analysing like me there will be things like pauses on leagues which eventually come good. It's only natural that you are going to get some scorelines which suffer more in certain leagues out of a smallish number of games.

Who's to say the next 20 games 2-0 @ HT in Italy don''t all have a goal. It will take around 2 years for this to happen though based on current frequency so I think I can cope with the loss of that revenue while I monitor things from afar.

[Richard Latimer]

Saturday ongoing but this is Sunday:

[Richard Latimer]

Sat:

[Richard Latimer]

Friday:

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):

In any case, one potential tonight to get back on the right track:

I've actually just looked again. There's not a single scenario that could play out where this would qualify on current data.

[Richard Latimer]

In any case, one potential tonight to get back on the right track:

[Richard Latimer]

Always easier to see things with a clearer head the day after. I decided to look into average lay odds (revers of the book price so not exact) for certain leagues and found that if I'd been a bit more brutal leagues like some of the Kakkonen ones would have been off the books some time ago. This would ultimately have left the Singapore game as an outlier and one I'd have left alone. Didn't happen but not ready to pause Singapore yet.

What I hadn't taken into account is just because a league has better ave losing odds than the ones that win in a variable staking system it simply means your winning less most of the time.

Ger Regionalliga Bayern will need 1 or 2 more favourable results to do again but it's ok. There were plenty of shots there and there should have been a goal.