Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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It actually shows how bad my overs have performed in May (or how badly i have managed them) that my unders (1.5 over lays) have gone 50/50 and I'm still only around one and a bit points up in May.
I still have every confidence.
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Lay Under 1.5:
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2-0 and the tiniest tiniest new bank high
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One more today. Lay Under 1.5 Ranheim
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Lay Under 1.5 Ajax
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@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:
Lay Under 1.5:
3-3
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Lay Under 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Quiet Saturday. Lay Under 1.5:
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Getting set early for the weekend so I can chill tomorrow evening onwards. Here are Fridays. All under 1.5 lays:
I'll post Saturdays later tonight and potentially even Sundays if I can get them done in time.
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The over lays are now exactly 50% for May which given the odds....is brilliant. And I missed one Iceland. Plus these have materialised from areas that were failing in the unders lays so there were potentially more.
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@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:
Football thread has gone a bit quiet of recent so I'm going to post here in addition.
Overnight Lay Over 1.5:
Real Salt Lake
0-0 and new bank high
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Football thread has gone a bit quiet of recent so I'm going to post here in addition.
Overnight Lay Over 1.5:
Real Salt Lake
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
The under 3.5 could be ready to go by start of winter leagues but it's just too much work right now and I'm going to have to shelve it. Have to put all my eggs in the over 1.5 and under 1.5 basket as that's what's most developed and takes less time currently.
I won't get rid of the data but there will be a large hole when I come back to it.
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The month that was April. Still areas that come up to be tweaked slightly but also some startling discoveries in terms of laying short prices. -1.45%ROI
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March, the month I discovered the Over 1.5 lay which has already been massive!!
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After a horrendous mid period I've pulled it back and come out of March with a plus.
Will post full update later!
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It also means that all of the data I was collecting that I thought served no purpose I've found a way to use it....just in a different way.
I've got 800 lines of data roughly and I've found use for 500 of them up to now. There is potential use for the rest but I'm in no hurry.
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Using the quiet time to loook into the over 1.5 lays in more detail. Calculating my s/r with longest expected losing streak and realised that not only can I match the profit on my under 1.5 lays I can potentially excede it.
So if the next 12 months were as the previous I've doubled my potential income stream. It really is up to me to capitalise now.
But 43.66% from 213 trades with a p/l based on single units of just over 57pts. Ave lay odds 1.3
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Only thing I'v noticed is that from back end of April 2022-Aug 2022 it made a very small loss. Every month since would have been postive with Oct and Nov making an absolute killing with s/r of over 50%
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On days where there's nothing happening I often look at my data and see if it can be used for anything else. Most recently I've been filtering all my non qualifiiers and noticed a massive deficit which when flipped the other way could result in a brilliant Lay Over 1.5 system. These aren't expected low goal games either.
However, the raw data for that would be much more selections than the system I started my sheet for so it still needed to be whittled down.
It seems that by carrying out the same process of elimination in terms of the bottom range/top range of numbers across all my data points I can do almost cut this in half while ALMOST doubling the profit.
A s/r of just under 40% for average back odds of around 5.0
I've got almost 250 selections as well so it's not like I need to prove the idea. It's proving itself every day one of the non qualifiers stays under 1.5
