Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Made a few tweaks recently although mainly against early season form so time to break out some more stats for anyone still watching:
213 - Total No. of Lays
96 - No. of those winning @ HT
95 - No. of teams winning at HT which have successfully avoided defeat by the end of the match.
98.96 The above numbers by %
43 Teams winning by more than 1 goal @ HT
43 Teams who have gone on to avoid defeat when winning @ HT
100 Above numbers in % format
96 - No. of teams drawing @ HT
86 - No. of teams who have avoided defeat when drawing @ HT.
89.58 - Those numbers in %
21 - No. of teams losing @ HT
13 - No. of teams who have successfully turned that deficit around to either win or draw.
61.9 - Those numbers by %39 - Longest winning streak
2- Longest losing streak
9 - No. of streak amounting to 10+ wins
10 - Current win streakI'm pretty happy with the way things are going at the moment. It remains for me to turn these results into actual money.
Overs, I keep collecting data and I'm almost halfway to 1000 matches now. Hopefully when i get there a pattern will emerge.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Columbia completes the sweep for the day at decent odds.
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Russia 2 and Poland 2 gone. Liquidity nowhere near good enough.
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Sheet updated for the day. First game at 12:00 providing liquidity ok. If not I'll remove Russian 2 for future.
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A nice overnight winner.
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Early lay. Leones in Columbia.
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@keith-anderson said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:
Aside from that it's a lay of Carrick Rangers anywhere 25.00 or under.
You should be fine with the Coleraine v Carrick match. Personally I wouldn't lay anything that price. Do you know our local bookies won't take single bets in the Northern Irish League at this time of the season. They only accept trebles or upwards. They believe the clubs and players are corrupt at this time of the season. These players are part-time footballers, plenty of them like to bet on the football.
I didn't know about the whole Northern Irish corruption thing mind so thanks for that. Certainly something to keep an eye on.
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2 wins (1 very short odds and the other very long).
Just updating sheet for tomorrow.
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@keith-anderson said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:
Aside from that it's a lay of Carrick Rangers anywhere 25.00 or under.
You should be fine with the Coleraine v Carrick match. Personally I wouldn't lay anything that price. Do you know our local bookies won't take single bets in the Northern Irish League at this time of the season. They only accept trebles or upwards. They believe the clubs and players are corrupt at this time of the season. These players are part-time footballers, plenty of them like to bet on the football.
In fact removing early season games there has been just 1 loss so far @ 16.50 when looking 15.50-25.00.
Obviously only a fairly small sample size still but if it continued like that.....
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I completely get what you mean but no lay between 21-25 has come close to losing so far. It's all tiered and if I found these suddenly became non profitable I would remove them for future.
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Aside from that it's a lay of Carrick Rangers anywhere 25.00 or under.
You should be fine with the Coleraine v Carrick match. Personally I wouldn't lay anything that price. Do you know our local bookies won't take single bets in the Northern Irish League at this time of the season. They only accept trebles or upwards. They believe the clubs and players are corrupt at this time of the season. These players are part-time footballers, plenty of them like to bet on the football.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
i took the Waterford lay early as it seemed a large amount of money would perhaps push the Shamrock price out. As ever you never truly can tell with these as a much larger amount of money on Shamrock did the opposite.
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Shamrock Rovers coming up as an early season away lay today. Odds obviously quite low. Shamrock are the superior team overall....but early season h/a form suggest this SHOULD be close. Fingers crossed.
Aside from that it's a lay of Carrick Rangers anywhere 25.00 or under.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
So in order to avoid removing these early season games completely I need to find an angle where I add a couple more rules but just for these. They may well end up being completely removed but for now I don't want to do that.
As I mentioned before games where the home team has won 100% or 75% (possible in 3 and 4 games respectively) results had up until last been decent enough. When I look back at the odds it might pay to put a lower threshold on until more form is established. If I halve this to 11.00 I am still looking at 7 okay priced winners and only 1 fairly low odds loser.
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Feck arse!!! Junior lose at home to Envigado for only the 2nd time in their history. They didn't just lose either, they got spanked!
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2 lays just starting. 1 in Honduras and the other in Columbia.
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Recently looking at how lays performing when between 6 & 9 games played in total between both teams at the beginning of the season as these have been poor on the South American leagues just starting.
Initially I could see that poor results were pretty much limited to the lower odds range. While I thought of removing this odds range purely from the first few games it's something I was loathe to do. I hate revolving things around odds as they can change and this makes a mockery out of why you excluded/included in the first place.
Also, the other games hadn't been profitable regardless when large loser in Columbia taken into account.
However for these games when you take home teams with a 75% or greater win rate results improve significantly. In fact Once Caldas are the only team in that bracket to lose so far. Apart from that there would have been 7 wins.
I'm not changing it just yet but it's on the cards.
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Can't remember why I thought there were 2 but clearly only 1. In any case it's over at HT.
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Only two tomorrow. Sheet updated already.
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Once Caldas took the lead 2nd half but 2 late goals (one very late OG) was enough to lose.
