Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Despite it being a brilliant month with only 3 days left I am just going to address the downturn in my lay overs strategy which is having the worst month for ages even though it's around break even give or take a couple of points. Under 1.5's are hitting at 27%!!
This has a lot to do with how well the raw data is fairing and you have to go back to Sept last year to find a better s/r than the 88% coming in this Sept (last year it was 90% and over 2.5 lays were at 50% compared to 52% this).
Although I should caveat that by saying there were a lot less selections of the unders (over lays) back then.
When Oct hit the raw data went down massively to 76% and the over lays flourished.
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Purple is over 2.5 lay, the other 2 potential under 1.5 lays providing no higher than 6.0 to lay when I take the trade.
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Lay under 1.5 providing 6.0 or less when I hit the hay
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Rest for today. Purple are over 2.5 lays, remainder are under 1.5 lays:
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Lay under 1.5 @6.0 or less:
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For Friday. Purple are lay over 2.5, blue lay under 1.5:
Max lay odds for 1.5 under lays = 6.0
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Lay Over 2.5:
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Lay under 1.5
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The rest of this weekend for me. All under 1.5 lays if 6.0 or better in price:
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Part one of the weekend. All under 1.5 lays:
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I'm delaying updating Aug in the hope I can update with a positive Sept!
These for the weekend. Purple is lay over 2.5, blue lay under 1.5.
Max price for laying under 6.00:
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Purple will be over 2.5 lays
Blue under 1.5 lays
Rotherham under 1.5 layAll under lays must be max price of 6.00
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ALOT of lost ground to make up in Sept:
Blue is lay under 1.5
Purple is lay over 2.5 -
@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:
Lay Under 1.5:
Not looking forward to posting this months update. Absolute crap again! Still, plenty of time left in the year to pull things around.....
Another 0-0 and my bank is in a tailspin. The raw data has fallen off a cliff so following that would have been 10x worse. Changes I've made have not only saved but also showed me a way to benefit from those unexpected games and also potentially throw them back into the mix if they don't qualify as one of those really dull games.
I can't be too cautious as I rule out too many winning trades and still hit the odd duffer I would repeat. I can't throw caution to the wind and lay up to 11.00 as I was doing because while it gives me something going forward these dull 0-0's would kill me in the meantime.
Had I only laid up to 6.00 for all of last month I would haved fared better. Sods law that you make a decision and still get hit by a couple of stragglers when you're in need of a good run the most.
Rio Grande v San Antonio from a quick check this morning had incredibly high numbers for away team scoring and home conceding. Only just had a loser like this in Denmark which thankfully was too high odds but that's 2/3 or 2/4 now where those high numbers do not equate to high scoring. That's over more than a year now too.
Long story short.....last night's loser takes 1 win away from the Azerbaijan league and gives me another successful over lay for my data. The Azerbaijan was also only 0-2 so gives another over 2.5 lay as well should I go down that path.
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Lay Under 1.5:
Not looking forward to posting this months update. Absolute crap again! Still, plenty of time left in the year to pull things around.....
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Lay Over 1.5 Herediano in Costa Rica
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Lay Under 1.5 America De Cali in Colombia
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Things were looking better this weekend as I'd been able to avoid some high priced 0-0's
Once again that high scoring league Iceland are screwing it up. You can see why people do go on about fixed games. 2 disallowed goals now and no real intent from either side as far as it looks.
But I keep on analysing the data looking to safeguard the future.
The way I'm currently designing my trading sheet is to first look for under 1.5 lays, when something doesn't quite make the cut I run the stats again looking to see if it's an over lay. If the match then falls short of making the cut for an over lay it pretty much falls back into an under lay by default with a few very small exceptions that would rule it out of contention completely.
The data supports my theory.
Only slight issue is that things are fluid and what one morning can seem a decent under lay....a few hours later I can find a reason this will be an over lay from now on.
Until the data builds and builds to the point individual games make no difference to my future outlook I will struggle.
That said, a few months ago I was making 10% on average from doing what had worked.....all of a sudden it's not and these s**t dead matches are becoming more and more the norm!
Looking at another large loss this month and it's tough to stop the bleeding!
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Purple is over 1.5 lay, the rest under 1.5 lays. Max lay under odds 6.00.
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Taking it super cautious until Sept but this looks a good one on paper.:
Lay Under 1.5 Vancouver Whitecaps overnight
