Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

Some quite low odds so don't think a sweep is on the cards this time.

Richard Latimer

Lyon clawed back to 1-1 in spite of VAR. Crusaders couldn't quite manage that:

Richard Latimer

So we start the month laying 2 favourites currently in a higher league position than the away team. Not a fan but sticking to what has worked up to now and I've not tracked league position:

I've actually reset my stake following the poor end to last month even though rules are 35% loss before doing that. With things at such a crucial stage it just seemed right.

Richard Latimer

@Akiva-Anderson I actually thought it would be really stressfull but somehow it's not.

First few trades were nerve wracking. After that it became normal for want of a better word.

It certainly snowballs alot quicker.

I definitely take fewer risks. A few years back playing with £'s and pence I would have laid the South African game. I'm now looking at the bigger picture.

Akiva Anderson

Isn't it easier when you use a big bankroll? I certainly think it is.

Richard Latimer

The one selection was tonight in Bolivia. A 1-5 winner regardless so that's good to see.

Richard Latimer

What I should have said is 2 potential selections left. One doesn't qualify after looking which just leaves the one in an untested league.

I'll take a look at Friday tomorrow.

Richard Latimer

There's only a couple of selections left for this month.

The potential for falling under £1000 profit for October by a couple of hundred would be far more psychologically damaging than the boost of maybe £100 more would be beneficial.

Also one of the leagues is untested in this.

For that reason I'm calling time until Nov.

I've now had just under 5%, just over 10% and just under 30% since Aug when I put the big money in. Really visible progress.

Richard Latimer

@Akiva-Anderson good to hear I'm not overreacting. I've had plenty of losses and I can take them but that seemed almost scripted.

Akiva Anderson

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

And now it's 4-1 for the 10 men!! (still 3-1 - ruled out)

@Akiva-Anderson you know this league, is that a bit dodge??

I'm not one for too many conspiracy theories but they were all over them at 1-1.

Definitely a strange one. Beitar Yerusalem's recent record against Maccabi Tel Aviv has been so poor. I watched this from 60 minutes onwards and it was difficult to tell who had 10 men.

Beitar didn't bring on Zahavi until the 81st minute.

Strange one.

Richard Latimer

I've just been back through all my losers on the refined data and this was the first and only time the away team had been turned over by a home team receiving a red. On top of that you had they were winning when the red happened and conceded 3 minutes later.

Then they dominated proceedings only to fall apart from the 82nd minute.

Israel is now in the red. It may come back but something is telling me I have to be careful there now so excluding until I can be sure this was a one off. Nothing more than an anomaly. A glitch in the matrix.

Richard Latimer

Bit of a crap end to the month but still 28% up and just over £1k

Richard Latimer

And now it's 4-1 for the 10 men!! (still 3-1 - ruled out)

@Akiva-Anderson you know this league, is that a bit dodge??

I'm not one for too many conspiracy theories but they were all over them at 1-1.

Richard Latimer

This game today is stinking a bit. 0-1 up, red card home almost immediately after.....was it just before HT, during HT or start of 2nd half?!

Then an immediate equaliser just after the price hit 70.0

Away dominating with shot after shot but then give away pen and now a 3rd!!

Richard Latimer

Nothing for tomorrow

Richard Latimer

Just the Beitar Jerusalem game Monday

Richard Latimer

So next move is to remove Qatar from these I think.

Firstly, todays didn't qualify for me as although the lay odds were higher than 1.9 the highest traded price was 1.87. I decided to be risk averse. Glad I did.

Now though, I can also look at a number of other things:

oddsportal don't give betfair odds on this league. It is unmanaged. Does not help my record keeping where I don't have a live trade.
volumes pretty pitiful at times (certainly were today).
Raw data for Qatar is -9pts from just 9 selections. Also sub 50% win rate.
Refined data only 3 selections and small loss.

All of these reasons lead me to believe there is no drawback and only upside in removing Qatar.

Richard Latimer

Was due a poor day

Richard Latimer

Sundowns lost in SA 1-0.

Love to see my scrapping of the mini mouse leagues paying off.

Richard Latimer