Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Ok so fiinally through my weekend update which also incorporates Monday. Could have been alot better, could have been worse. I've been getting majorly distracted either from being giddy and excited or pissed off and disbelieving during my brief stint in the online dating game which has meant the update has been even harder haha! Nevertheless here it is:
Bremen I didn't do as it was an outlier.
Ceske Budejovice and Servette have caused me to briefly halt proceedings on those leagues so Basel the next day wasn't taken - typical.
St. Pauli another outlier
Anderlecht an outlier
Westerlo - I'm not quite there on that league yetAnd that's it. Despite this, the month is just about green at present. Tonights to come.
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Poor start in Turkey posted in football thread. Here's the remainder:
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Big update today (forgot how long they took) so I'll post up in the morning.
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £260.74 (+£16.57 for Jan):
Today a perfect illustration of not playing the big outliers. Volendam were low on home odds, low on over odds and had a very home scored ave. 2-0 @ HT and 2-0 it stayed.
Went 2/2 thanks to avoiding that banana skin.
Xamax
Jong AjaxTomorrow looks better than it has done for a long time!
In my excitement of seeing some fixtures I didn't check some things. Here's the revised list of potentials:
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Today a perfect illustration of not playing the big outliers. Volendam were low on home odds, low on over odds and had a very home scored ave. 2-0 @ HT and 2-0 it stayed.
Went 2/2 thanks to avoiding that banana skin.
Xamax
Jong AjaxTomorrow looks better than it has done for a long time!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Tomorrow:
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Nothing tomorrow again. Roll on Friday.
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Thread title updated with Jan profit. Not enough but it's a step in the right direction again.
Today was 1/1 with Braunschweig.
Tomorrow:
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The only potential today:
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I'm updating today which had 2 wins on th SHG. One of which I was out for and the other I did.
On the flip side my over 1.5 needs more data. First 2 came in while I was out but then I got cocky and thought well I may as well do these as well.
Went 2/3 there for an overall slight loss on the day.
There is one more potential tomorrow and while a loss there would likely take me into negative territory for the month I don't plan on running scared. Yes it would be great to finish a 4th straight month in green (although not enough) but running away doesn't seem the right attitude to ensure that.
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Todays potentials:
Between Winterthur to Den Haag any trades will be on over 1.5 and only if they meet the required pre-match odds that I've been analysing recently.
For Winterthur I want between 1.36 & 1.63 Home odds
For Almere & Den Haag it will need to be in these rangesHome odds 1.39-1.79, 2.94-3.27 & 3.73-4.37
For Mezokovesd-Zsory it will need to be between Home odds 1.62-2.74 & 3.75-6.87
Odds are taken from oddsportal.com but bear in mind I will be doing them before 14:00 so if the odds move significantly it could be a factor.
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This thread, this system, all of it, is always about what's going to happen going forward. Not about what happened on the day. I went 0/2 for a rubbish day.
Eng League is on pause as mentioned many times already since the early debacle.
The only 3 selections which would currently be selections were outliers and regrettably would still be outliers. That said, they won't be forever. Either they'll lose or they'll eventually fall within the lines where I consider them a trade.
For anybody wanting to know what made them outliers:
Paks had a VERY high total ave goals which actually became the highest value for this scoreline today so not even an outlier earlier. Now it is.
Eindhoven. Home odds lower than the threshold I'm willing to use on 0-0 at present. They were 1.27 and it was 1.29. It is now 1.28.
Young Boys had a VERY high SHG ave (1.7). My threeshold is currently 1.5 for 0-0 but it's only a matter of time until the threshold is cemented or extended.
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Poor day today but why wouldn't it be the day before the most important day for me in the last 10 months haha! Going through all the results but the main take away is a league I was beginning to trust cannot be trusted at all for now.
Aside from that typically enough there were a couple falling into outlier territory at 0-0 which went and won. Great for the data to keep narrowing the field of outliers and turning them into potentials for the future anyway.
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Here's todays potentials.
Tomorrow I have a coffee date with somone who I hope is real (who can tell until you actually meet them haha) and there is a couple of matches on during this time. Obviously it would be date suicide not to put all the attention onto her assuming I like so I may well trial an over 1.5 method I've been looking at from the same filter assuming it all fits. Just for the few around 13:00-15:00 haha!
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Assuming it doesn't get cancelled there's one potential for tomorrow in Wales. I'll post later as no hurry.
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Nothing today and more
tomorrow
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Bank back up to £284.02 following win in Chippenham. Tomorrows potentials:
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Can't wait until I can finally look at the next days fixture without seeing the horrible words postponed or cancelled ffs!!
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Scrap that, it's Portugal 2. Nothing today.
