Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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And then I look at the easy win I turned away from in Serbia!
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Fuckity f**k f**k
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Slavia currently making hard work of things though.
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Thought I posted this earlier.
That said, a quick look at Bologna and they've not lost in 10 and this isn't exactly a common occurence for my filter. 3 unrefined up to this point. This is the first in refined data so I may need to be cautious there too.
I'll kick myself way more if the home team wins and I place the trade as opposed to if they don't win and I keep my powder dry.
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Serbia is kind of on the edge of will it or won't it be profitable. Odds on Novi Pazar mean it's highly unlikely to qualify anyway. The second Serbian game is almost at evens meaning it's more likely to lose anyway.
I will be leaving Serbia alone and concentrating on the other 3.
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Just as soon as Bundesliga opens up for selection it's gone.
Irritating but a few mistakes are all part of the journey.
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Way out of my odds range but you still don't really expect them to lose Heerenveen beat PSV
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Well that backfired.....doh!
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Back in the summer I noticed something quite quickly and did something about it. Low low odds in Sweden, Finland and Norway all lost in quick succession. They were ruled out immediately and from then those leagues prospered (adding these low odds back to Eliteserien only makes things worse for that league in case anyone wondered) for the most part.
Up until Germany Bundesliga I hadn't really noticed this happening with other leagues to such a degree. Higher odds knocking it out of the park consistently. Lower odds all getting hammered. And I've checked. Can't see any other poorly performing leagues this could apply to right now either.
Knocking away all odds below 2.46 improves things hugely. It doesn't help Nov so I'm not just trying to make every month a winner. Just follow striking patterns I can see and not remove the biggest leagues in entirety without due cause.
Anyway, all this is to say.....Bundesliga is back on the table but only for odds 2.46+
I have added the rule to my spreadsheet.
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First is the standard price. Best kind of price.
Second is a low odds lay.
Third is unlikely to be anything as currently home price is sky high.
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Nothing Friday
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it's not been an especially bad start to Dec as is. Low odds have both lost and Norway finished the season by going into the red and making them an exclusion for 2025. Other that things have been decent....just slow.
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Well. I. Never.
2-0, red home, 3-0
11 mins to go
Ends 3-3 with a disallowed away goal to boot.
Love this league!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Well I suppose it's long overdue in this league but not a great a start to Dec!
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Another in my favourite league tomorrow:
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In the end yesterday saw only one trade I was happy with that fit the price credentials. At least it won but that was a break even weekend to go along with the £150 loss on the first week.
Nothing now until at least Wed on this.
My Over 1.5 continues to prosper and I have to take the plunge there in Jan.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Odds on the Turkish game too high anyway by the looks of it. Certainly on the threshold and not a win I'm going to record. Record the losses on the threshold, delete the wins. Can only improve with the actual trade at that point.
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So Switzerland and Germany justified my lack of faith. Galatasaray would have been an easy enough win after the initial stress of a red card.
All building reliable data though.
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This post is deleted!
