Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2013/11/13/5098186/shot-matrix-i-shot-location-and-expected-goals

Another great source of data and the likelihood of goals coming from sot in different locations.

Richard Latimer

Updated the sheet with 2 FHG selections to track tomorrow.

Richard Latimer

Nothing doing for tomorrow in terms of FHG

Richard Latimer

I've added data for FHG strategy mentioned above both for popular leagues and including all others. I'll update these daily as of now.

For the time being I'll leave it out of the members filters. There's enough of mine on there already and I'm not entirely happy with any as yet haha!

Richard Latimer

Anyone checking into the sheet as of now will be met with a bit of a blank canvas. I've kept all previous data to archive rather than bin as I have so erratically done in the past so I can draw from this later should the need arise. If anyone wants a copy let me know and I'll send it over no problem.

In the meantime...

I'm certainly not throwing the bath water out with the baby but the only way I'm going to realise long term success is to take what I have learned and explore other ideas as they arise.

These last strategies I worked on since June and only now was I beginning to see that without something else/without expanding there was no particular future. 6 months is a LOT longer than I have given stuff in the past so that in itself is a measure of success from my perspective.

LCS I'm continuing to keep on the back burner. With such low odds the strike rate needed is very high and every loss felt that much more sharply. Conversely I hate missing out on so many winning trades so not sure I could handle waiting and waiting for the price to rise haha!

I may well come back to this in the future.

FHG: Where I've already started putting my energy last couple of days. A FHG system/strat I have been aware of for a time now (although suggested use is different to what I'm doing) which I am attempting to replicate using BTC stats and also to see if additional leagues can be added (if so which ones).

I won't say where I found this or give the name of it out of consideration for Ryan and co but I'm using current season only, last 20 games for each team rather than 10 and will only be looking at teams after they have played 3 home games and the away have played the same amount of away games.

I'll add data for this a little later today.

Backing team A or team B. I'm going to continue looking at this but using full game stats rather than just H1. Also try and think about xG (goal expectancy) at HT so the option is either trade out or stay in for the 2nd half depending on sot and where in particular these shots on target came from in respect of distance and positioning to the goal. Where this data is not available it will be a case of trade out as per normal I think.

Take a look at this link for an idea of what I mean https://statsbomb.com/2016/04/explaining-and-training-shot-quality/

But as is my want and my new favourite word of the moment.....everything is fluid right now!

Richard Latimer

Totally missed the Croton game today. Anyone tell me what the price was to lay them at HT when 0-1 down?

I'm guessing was about 3.0 to back pre-match?!

Richard Latimer

A small loss on the 1x2 H1 after 3 games today. 1 more for tomorrow in Crotone.

Other than that I'm putting a hold on LCS for now.

Richard Latimer

Yes @Dave-Bartlett but I've been here so many times before and after a superb beginning all I see is slowly decaying dross haha!!

I ran the data again today as well and had I been on them it would have been yet another disappointing day.

They may be up right now but it wouldn't take that much to lose the small amount which has been built up at this rate.

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@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

I know my tinkering is the source of much mirth but after a day like yesterday I totally lose faith in certain things. I can't physically bring myself to do it all again today.

I've updated the 1x2 H1 for today.

Not sure where I'm going apart from those right now.

Are they still up overall ?

Richard Latimer

I know my tinkering is the source of much mirth but after a day like yesterday I totally lose faith in certain things. I can't physically bring myself to do it all again today.

I've updated the 1x2 H1 for today.

Not sure where I'm going apart from those right now.

Richard Latimer

If anybody followed those today I must apologise as they totally stunk up the room!

Ryan

@richard-latimer will keep an eye on them I love the 1x2H1 easy to follow as well!

Richard Latimer

@Ryan-Carruthers In this cold weather a nice bottle of red made a change to beer haha! Still made a loss, just not as much as if I'd backed at around 1.43.

Anyway, sheet has been updated for today and once all non inplay games removed there's nothing left on 1x2 H1. Plenty potential FHG to keep an eye out for and a fair few LCS potentials.

Ryan

@richard-latimer love that you missed it due to the wine!

Richard Latimer

1 for 2 in LCS after Porto/Benfica failed to break the deadlock. Both 1x2 H1 plays winners with with NEC being 3-0 at the break for a 1.01 cashout.

Started todays this morning although missed the start of 'The Strongest due to a rather nice bottle of wine. I hit the back button at just over evens without even looking at score. Turns out it was already 0-1. The equalizer came but I left it it in and by HT it was 1-2. Small loss there although proper figures of much more substantial loss should probably be recorded. Hopefully was just a blip as these were definitely on the upturn.

Richard Latimer

Sheet updated: Nothing of note until after 16:00.

Richard Latimer

Thoroughly boring day where everything either didn't go inplay or didn't qualify.

Ryan

@richard-latimer Oh you'll be in trouble now, wait till @Martin-Futter gets hold of you

Richard Latimer

Sheet updated with todays which other than 1 I wouldn't expect much from. The '1' in question is an amber though so exercise caution. I doubt I'll bother.

Richard Latimer

Seems I got round the censorship @Ryan-Carruthers haha