Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Thankfully no market for Penybont. Danish womens too high odds. Currently on a very small loss after Emmen failed to get 1 back.
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Interesting to see how many of these i manage to get as some of the prices are quite high:
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After the previous day the last thing I needed was another loser but there you go. Stuck the distance and made a small profit again which felt good. Still got 2 weekends of Sept to go:
Side bar - Everyone was so convinced that with Miami putting out a weaker team Atlanta were going to steamroll them. Price dropped from 2.75 and just kept going. Someone smashed 20k down at around 2.10 and went as low as evens for a bit.
But then all of a sudden it stopped.....and it went out a bit. Not much. This is 2nd incidence like this in MLS I've seen of recent.
Everyone is so swayed by a few players they don't look at the chasm between the rest of the squad and their opponent.
a) it pays to wait when placing trade - I would not have been happy at laying 2.5 or something.
b) when the stats say one thing and all the mug punters are thinking another. Go with the stats if the league is trustworthy.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@nick I looked at the size of Paide's home stadium this morning. 768 compared to Kalve 5k.
Paide are 4th and Kalev miles behind points wise. Paide have a squad of double the value. How is it possible they are playing to less than 1k every week while the big clubs have 10k on average??!
For this system Estonia is done. I may actually remove that and Lithuania from my filters so I'm not tempted to renege if things pick up in the future.
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@Richard-Latimer I placed the tallina bet on Smarkets and they halted the market and the bet was cancelled, so I dont know if there was some dodgy betting patterns going on ETC. so that might be another reas0n to stay away from the estonia market
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I won't shy away from the bad days anymore like I used to. This was a hit but I'll bounce back. Estonia left far behind in the distance the useless mofo's!!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
3-2 but damage done in the fh.
Estonia was already just about in the negative. Now it's firmly in the red.
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I think it's important to try and always be positive. This result in Estonia is enough for me to say no more.
Good to do that perhaps before the big money comes in.
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Sorry again. Have a feeling things about to pick up though......fingers firmly crossed.
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Dropped a bollock on the thread tonight. Forgot to post lay on Mjondalen which finished 1-1.
It's on my records so you'll have to just trust.
Going back to posting no more than 1 day ahead as it's less confusing than posting them then looking to see if there's been changes.
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More midweek selections the very next day. Dare I say it but the winter leagues might finally be starting to kick in properly:
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@Alex-Rendell You're absolutely right in terms of Estonia although top leagues isn't too bad for liquidity.
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Never done this before but I think it's important to see nonetheless. The graph below is raw data with no exclusions from my filter at all other than home must not have better points tally than away:
There is a general upwards trajectory still. This is also including all leagues without exception.
Clearly quite a bit of variance and my tweaks to the filter do improve upon the initial. It's just good to see that even in it's most basic form this is still a winning system over 500+ bets.
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@Richard-Latimer surely if you're taking a long-term view, you shouldn't even be trading the second tier in these kind of countries? I mean, the top tier in Estonia barely has enough volume (or "liquidity") to make it viable in terms of scaling up to bigger stakes.
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Midweek selections. Not used to these. Estonia pops up immediately after the Esiliiga let me down. On the hole these have been ok so I'll follow normal rules and trade if it applies:
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Stupid stupid Estonia. Chastening! It's not a knee jerk decision to rule that crappy league out. It was just a stupid one to trade it in the first place.
Stats are wildly swayed to one side, liquidity is crap and I don't trust the league. Still pondering on the Meistriliiga but so far that's been ok.
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Well after a decent Friday and a disappointing Sunday it took an injury time goal.
Still just about have chance for a winning weekend with one trade Monday.
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Oh Estonian lower league, why did I let you do this to me???
1 selection from that league all year and it's an absolute car crash.
I so can't wait for Winter Leagues to kick in proper. Still seems like only a few in play for me at present with mostly the dregs of summer.
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Ok the odds have come down to 1.35 to lay and it's not started. Avoiding like the plague!!!
