Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

Thanks @Neil-Mallett. I've noticed that 2H goals become more consistent after 1 goal in the FH and only 1 goal. If HT score is 0-0 I want 1 and only 1 0-0 score line in last 20 combined. You would think 0 is good but so far all it seems to mean is there's a 0-0 round the corner.

Thing is I understand about the coin toss rule meaning that regardless of what has come before the probabilities remain the same but it simply doesn't appear to be the case with football or I would imagine other sports where mentality comes into it.

0-0's come along around 8% of the time and if there hasn't been 1 in 20 games.....

1 I find works well enough that neither team enjoys a goalless draw but either or has suffered one in the last 10 games already.

The logic suits me, let's see if results continue to play out that way.

Richard Latimer

Trying not to tinker @Ryan-Carruthers but it's not easy haha!

LCS is almost set in stone I think if it keeps going as it is. FHG tinkering was necessary and still is.

Think I've done most of the tinkering I can on the 1x2 H1

Ryan

@richard-latimer yes an no tinkering now!

Richard Latimer

It's certainly low risk as don't usually lose a lot trading out at HT. So far most of the profit has come in 1 or 2 months so we will see if it can kick on.

Ryan

@Richard-Latimer I like the 1x2 H1 a lot buddy, that looks to be working well

Richard Latimer

Mixed bag today:

Start with the positive:

4 1x2 H1 all winning at HT.

Then the LCS:

Only 2 qualified and Marseille threw a spanner into the works there. As far as those I'm monitoring they tanked. Away favoured teams in goals scored do not appear to fare well in the long term. I'll keep collecting data for now but it's looking like 0.0+ to home team will qualify long term and nothing else will.

Finally FHG how I have been playing it is no more. Amazing beginning looks like nothing more than a fluke given recent results.

The eagle eyed may have noticed a worksheet entitled FHG2. This is essentially using same data but with the added filter of how many 0-0's there have been at HT. You'd think that would have been included from the off but hey ho!!

It's very raw at present with not a lot to go on but data so far (including when you think about where goals are coming from in the 2h) seems to suggest no away teams favoured to score more and not more than 2 prev 0-0's in the 20 combined matches.

In the process of updating sheet for tomorrow.

Richard Latimer

Sheet updated with todays

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@richard-latimer Nice injury time goal! Thought the Guarani red had all but killed the game...

Richard Latimer

So Guarani is to be the final LCS qualifier. Nothing early early doors tomorrow so I'm placing bet and going to bed with a stinking cold!!

I'll update things tomorrow.

Bastard winter!!!

Ryan

@richard-latimer love the name of this thread, watching with interest.

Richard Latimer

Todays fixtures are up on the sheet. Amber means look don't touch. Green is go haha!!

At present it's looking more and more confident on anything where away team isn't favoured by more goals but still not enough data for me to change it from Amber to Green.

Hopefully soon!

Richard Latimer

Too tired to do it all tonight (and been drinking) but Sydney FC is an LCS providing there has been a goal and only 1 goal FH. Also need 1.1 min price for the overs market.

Game starts 08:50 so involvement begins 09:35ish.

Next potential game begins 10:00 but I'll post these/update sheet in the am