Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Decided to let some of the late ones run. Wouldn't say it was a mistake exactly as data shows only 2 from well over 100 have lost after being a goal up at ht (was only 1 before today).
Purely the law of sod which chose to make today the 2nd.
As it is the lays still finished off only about 0.25 pts down.
Backs soldiered on as normal without really going anywhere.
Minimal overs but small losses there.
Small loss on the alternative lays and some more loss on the alternative over 1.5.
Overall a fairly pants day but lays would have been up if I'd stuck to the plan. Only a few for Monday. Sheet updated.
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Way less in some areas today so hopefully a lot more manageable. Famous last words!
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Right, sheet updated. Still not checked what's going inplay yet but first lay due at 10:30.
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This is becoming more and more time consuming as I have so many balls in the air currently.
Backs
Lays
Over 2.5
Over 1.5
Over 1.5 again
And now another VERY slightly different way of looking at laysNot sure how long I can keep them all up. Updating yesterdays full card took hours and because I'm concentrating so hard on the first lays right now I'm having to take odds retrospectively from oddsportal on most and take a guestimate of what cashout price likely would have been should any of my teams be in a winning position.
It's not perfect and I wonder how long I can keep all these going without dropping some of the more variant strategies to the back burner.
Backs, going very well, all be it with quite low odds, yesterday until hit a few losers. 11 wins from 14 though still came out with a small green.
Lays resulted in around 1pt profit based on my new maria like staking. 16 lays with 2 losers amongst them. Losers were at the lower end odds wise.
Over 2.5 - Burned!!! Not really sure there's more to say than that. 3pts loss.
Over 1.5 - 3pts loss here too.
Alternative Lays - Around half a point lost.
Alternative Over 1.5 - A little over 1pt lost.
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I tell a lie. Streak was 37 again.
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The streak is over but it got to 38 before the next loss. I can live with that!
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What I forgot to report yesterday is that after a sticky spell lays are currently on a 31 long unbeaten streak. This is the 2nd largest since I started collecting data which definitely gives hope to the idea that what happened initially was no fluke.
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Done. Off to bed.
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Finally finished totalling up today.
Lays good
Backs small loss
Over 2.5 no good
Over 1.5 good and badNow to crack on with Saturday's!
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That's all the lays in now. Another sweep following what looked like a bad tempered game in Den Bosch.
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Odds Range Req S/R Max Liability
up to 3.5 75.00% 4.00%
3.55 - 7.4 87.50% 5.70%
7.6 - 11.0 92.31% 6.66%
11.5 - 15.0 94.12% 8.00%
15.5 - 20.0 95.45% 10.00%
21.0 - 25.0 96.30% 10.00%These are the figures I've been working on
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My calculations above are out of whack. I've puzzled over what various percentages should be for ages trying to work it back from a max liability and and it's not easy.
I think a better way to do it may be to look at each level of odds (for example 3.55-7.40) on it's own merit. For example, to make the odds of 7.40 work I will need 7 wins for every loss as a minimum. This is 87.50%. 85% gives longest expected losing streak of 4 while 90% gives that as 3. Combine the two and I can expect that to be 3.5.
Suggestion on bet size is that you should take longest likely losing streak x5. In this instance that's 17.50.
Divide the bank into 17.5 points for these odds and each point is your max liability.
To find do 100/17.5 which makes 5.71. Max liability 5.7%. From there it should be quite easy to ascertain the back stake. If you are working on a £100.00 bank this would be £0.89.
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A whole load of everything tomorrow. Backs/Lays/Overs.
In terms of consistency I'm probably more confident on the lays than anything else at the moment. Man of these are far too high odds to be laying level stakes so I've worked out a sort of maria staking system for them.
up to 3.50 - 1pt
3.55 - 7.40 - 0.6pt
7.60 - 11.00 - 0.4pt
11.50 - 15.00 - 0.3pt
16.00 - 20.00 - 0.24pt
21.00 - 25.00 - 0.21ptI think it would be up to the individual to define what % their own pt should be but for me that's about 2.85%
I've calculated that with a 90% s/r my highest liability should be 6.66%. For anything over 11.00 I need higher than this anyway and the higher odds the higher s/r I expect. That being said I've calculated a max 10% liability where I expect around a 95% s/r.
I've done all this from looking at these linked pages:
http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/science-calculating-winning-losing-streaks/
https://www.thepunterspal.com/archives/875From the tables shown it should be possible to calculate likely winning/losing streaks and as such the amount to bet in accordance with bank.
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1 selection, 1 win. On to tomorrow.
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Todays over 2.5 could only manage 2 goals but conversely this was the first game in the over 1.5's all of which won.
Only one away game in Egypt tomorrow to back and these have been no great shakes!
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1 selection of over 2.5 which failed to hit but 1 back (also a lay) which hit at fairly nice odds.
In addition the 2x over 1.5 on season long data both hit. Updating sheet for tomorrow now.
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For over 2.5's that should have read over 60% s/r
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Only back didn't reach 1.2 so that's a no go. Away team fell under 25.00 to lay though and so I collected data there for what was an easy 5-0 win.
2x Over 2.5's both won so things definitely picking up there again. Back over 50% s/r and with a yield of 7.35%.
4x Over 1.5 on season long data also won. A large amount of selections (75 in 6 days) means I'd desperately like to cut it down a bit but I'm really going to try and collect as much data as possible with these before I do anything else. Still at around 81% with over 4% yield even on the raw data and with odds going from 1.08 to over 1.5.
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Backs and lays went ok but nothing more. Over 2.5 did quite well and over 1.5 using more or less same data swept to put that back in the black.
Other over 1.5's didn't do so well and after 25 selections pretty much break even. These need to be streamlined hugely in any case but right now I'm just not quite sure where to do that.
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Good start on the overs in Spain this morning. Fingers crossed for another goal in each.
