Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Couldn't resist!
Essentially it's what I've been doing over on the facebook page so if you've been following you'll know the deal by now.
There's official and monitored and the whole damn thing is fluid right now although I'm getting closer to what I feel will be the final product.
In any case it's all detailed on the attached sheet:
Will update for tomorrow asap
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=v8arsy1si4v0651ser69coa45&st=4r1o63le&dl=0 -
@Alex-Rendell that's curious but it sure aligns with contrary thinking and what they would call sharps in the states.
Well today's looks to have possibly shortened slightly.
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@Richard-Latimer yeah fair point in terms of lack of volume & liquidity - I've only started tracking it myself over the last 2-3 months but have noticed a stark difference; systems that look for goals perform far better when the over 2.5 odds (our "benchmark" for goal probability) have dropped by at least 2 ticks from the morning price (taken manually at 7-8am and then compared to odds 15 mins pre-kick off). Compare this to when the odds haven't moved at all or have drifted, where the strike rate and returns are far lower. Food for thought and something I thought you might want to start tracking if you have the time.
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@Alex-Rendell AM prices on some leagues have way less liquidity as well.
It's harder to track as I can't find it easily on oddsportal and harder to find decent liquidity.
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@Alex-Rendell Not really. I might have a glance but all my data is based on the price as close to kickoff as possible and now perhaps around 30 mins prior as it's not such a rush.
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Lay Under 1.5:
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@Richard-Latimer Morning, just wondered if you track odds movement in terms of the difference between AM and pre-KO prices at all?
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Lay Under 1.5:
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Lay Under 1.5:
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Lay Under 1.5:
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I have without doubt ended this abysmal year slightly in the red so it mirrors everything else going on frankly.
I simply HAVE to put things right from January onwards even if it means moving slower as I attempted this last weekend.
I'm pausing all other systems (overs is the most developed by far) and throwing all my eggs into one basket. They either get to the destination safely or end up smashed all over the floor!
I've already looked at Boxing Day and there's nothing.
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Only got 5 trades this weekend and typically enough despite an early goal in Belgium those bastards stopped playing and it ended that way. I missed Leipzig as it looked like price would be too low right until kickoff then I saw it had drifted massively.
Despite a small loss overall I must take heart from this weekend as my ultra cautious approach managed to avoid another loss in Hungary.
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Lay Under 1.5:
Scoured the statistics of each and every game from top to bottom. Removed a few on this basis that may have me kicking myself if they lose. If 1/2 or god forbid 3 of these lose I'll have to hold my hands up and say I've no idea why. Bad day and go again on the same basis.
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Australia is one where I only have 9 selections since April 24 and only the bigger range odds so that's definitely on hold as an accident waiting to happen.
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I'm also locking down leagues with very small amounts of data and only higher prices.
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@Alex-Rendell yeah, I'm locking down top and bottom odds now where I don't have enough data.
There literally is no stone I'm not turning over anymore.
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@Richard-Latimer a wise man once said that 100% records can only go in one direction…
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These fine margins are f*****g killing me. I tried to gain more control at the bottom end of the odds but at the top I was kind of going on the basis that if there hadn't been a loss that was good enough.
It's not.
0-0 in Serbia was not a result I was expecting.
So a great Fri/Saturday completely destroyed and then some by high odds losses.
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Lay Under 1.5:
5.3-9.4
