Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Sheet updated with all tomorrow's selections.
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Very good day overall:
Back & Be Damned - 3 Home Selections all winning @ HT and traded for a decent green ( in one case traded @ 1.01. 1 away game drawing @ HT which went on to 2-5.
Lay The Lot - The same 3 home selections all winning @ HT. Hertha added to lay (excluded from backs) on the basis their record far superior to Mainz but they've still won only 36% of home games. That was a loss so if sticking to the original 3 homes it was a winning day, if not then a slight loss.
Over 2.5 - Pretty much break even (very slight green) for a 3-2 (60%) win ratio.
Over 1.5 using same selections (but excluding Sittard due to overall % score being only 280 across necessary criteria) 4-0 sweep.
Long Term 'Over'view - Over 1.5 using 20 game current season data.- 12 wins, 1 loss.
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Result. 2 winning lays and I no longer feel like I'm dying from Salmonella!
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A bout of chicken induced food poisoning has stopped me posting anything until now.Finally managed to update the sheet. A few overnight qualifiers which were too late even for me so I've not even looked at those.
Nothing to stop set and forget on those so collected data for overs still.
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Sheet updated with tomorrow's
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Also decent for laying.
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Another decent today for backing and over 2.5 although over 1.5 not so great.
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Got one game to look at tomorrow afternoon then everything come at 19:45. Sheet updated as per.
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In a break from what I have been doing I'm forcing myself to record every single real (bad) trade/bet I make.
The further I go into the red the more I'll realise things aren't working and unlike usual I will have some concrete figures on what I've been losing. As I hopefully start to turn things around and the box goes from red to green then I'll be able to see this nice and clear rather than making guesses and assumptions on what the current state of play is.
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Aint that typical. Not a duff game among them today!
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When the fun stops stop they say.....
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The god of statistics is having his fun today. Sick and twisted sense of humour that's for sure.
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I've tried to find the consistency at higher odds of backing and over 2.5 but the more results I collect the more I am lead to laying the away and looking at over 1.5 using this very same data.
I believe from today I will start collecting over 1.5 prices as well but only for a combined score of 300+ from tallied criterias. 280 has performed far more poorly on the over 1.5 than the over 2.5.
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Sheet updated for today.
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Good day today on everything but the backs.
Overs finally hit back and things look a little more healthy now.
Lays suffered only one highly unexpected loss.
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Losing day today and certainly for me I got stung on Paderborn but other than being typical that was the first loss in 25 at such high (or what I would imagine to be high) odds.
Sheet updated for tomorrow.
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Quite a bit lined up for today. All on the sheet. Starts at 13:00.
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As for today, nothing for the remainder as all qualifiers were overnight games in South America.
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I started on worksheet the other night to show sequences of wins in a row and and how many matches were winning/drawing.losing at HT. I've now developed that sheet with dates for when winning runs began/ended.
Shows that throughout December (beginning on the 8th) there would have been only 1 losing lay and this was on the 30th. A sequence of 34 winning lays.
Since then it has been good if not quite at those unattainable highs:
The next sequence of wins began on the same day the last ended and went on right up to the 6th Jan so even then just over a week without loss. 15 wins.
Next was 13 wins beginning on the 7th Jan and ending 14 Jan 1 week later.
Then 9 wins beginning 14 Jan and ending on the 20th Jan almost another week later.
from the 20th Jan to the 26th Jan there was another sequence of 15 wins before loss. And from the 26th Jan to the 31st came a sequence of 18 wins before another loss.
Beginning 1st Feb there was a minor blip where only 3 wins later came the next loss only to be followed 4 wins later on the same day (3rd Feb) with a second consecutive loss on the same day.
Since then the sequence is currently 12 strong without loss beginning on the 4th Feb.
These figures are subject to change a little if I decide to rule out leagues on the basis of liquidity but thus far it appears quite consistent. The results are from my original backs so I do not have lay odds for most.
However, in addition I have also created a separate laying sheet and in time will track sequences in the same way.
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All Boys came back from 0-2 down to go in at the half drawing. Game ended 3-3 so a win on the lays. I myself layed Ferro and was just about to take my 25% when All Boys scored a 3rd allowing for a much greater cashout.
Thursday games already in the bag as Godoy Cruz now 3-0 up and Honduras cashed out at HT (paper traded). In reality I layed Lanus and that game was 0-0 at the half. Took a little while in the 2nd half to earn my 25% but as soon as I took it Godoy scored. Nevermind, a win is a win.
