Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Couldn't resist!
Essentially it's what I've been doing over on the facebook page so if you've been following you'll know the deal by now.
There's official and monitored and the whole damn thing is fluid right now although I'm getting closer to what I feel will be the final product.
In any case it's all detailed on the attached sheet:
Will update for tomorrow asap
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Here we go again!
It's not what I would have chosen to get the ball rolling again but all stats well within range to the extent the result won't influence any decision after the fact.
Also UAE has yet to give me a loss (jinx).
Wasl seemed to be the dominant force last season but have started in less than impressive form. If this system was about most recent form then Wahda look the far more likely to win. However, I'm going with what has worked since Feb so that's just that.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
I'm not about to do this now either (burnt trying this too early in the past) but it looks to me as if a very good system of backing the home underdog (mostly the underdog anyway) could be found in using all the fixtures I exclude from raw data on my filter.
Currently 58% s/r with average odds around 3.5 I reckon. Certainly well over 3.0 (I only have the published lay prices as well as those I was able to obtain myself).
I totally meant 42% (actually 43%). Just forgot to flip around what I was looking for. Still seems very healthy.
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I thought there may be a selection or two tomorrow but alas, it is unlikely.
Sat not likely either.
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You'll know for sure in the next month or so.
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I've been tracking these since feb so prob not relevant then.
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@Alex-Rendell said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
@Richard-Latimer you don't see a graph like that very often!! I guess that makes the recent short-term blip harder to swallow, as it's been performing so consistently over a relatively decent period?
This may or may not be relevant but it's worth mentioning that goal numbers/averages are well down so far this month in a significant number of major leagues - not sure if this at all relates to your recent results but it may help to partly explain what's gone on lately!
Prior to this month, averages had been higher than average.
Regression to the mean.
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I'm not about to do this now either (burnt trying this too early in the past) but it looks to me as if a very good system of backing the home underdog (mostly the underdog anyway) could be found in using all the fixtures I exclude from raw data on my filter.
Currently 58% s/r with average odds around 3.5 I reckon. Certainly well over 3.0 (I only have the published lay prices as well as those I was able to obtain myself).
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Alex-Rendell It probably does because the away team are knocking on the door and just not scoring.
So they're either getting hit against the run of play or the match is grinding to a boring 1-0.
Also explains why my over 1.5 system is suffering a simillar blip although that's not ready to go yet anyway.
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@Richard-Latimer you don't see a graph like that very often!! I guess that makes the recent short-term blip harder to swallow, as it's been performing so consistently over a relatively decent period?
This may or may not be relevant but it's worth mentioning that goal numbers/averages are well down so far this month in a significant number of major leagues - not sure if this at all relates to your recent results but it may help to partly explain what's gone on lately!
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@Richard-Latimer That is a very nice looking graph!
I think Stuart mentioned it a while back, looks like you might really be on to something here, softly softly until you see where the data takes you. -
S/r's at different odds ranges for refined data (excluding negative leagues) are thus:
up to 3.5 83%
3.55-7.4 94%
7.6-11 - No loss as yet from 41 selectionsAs soon as things start up again I will be back in the saddle. I will probably be careful with those leagues that could easily flip into negative territory.
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And speaking of excluded leagues - currently that number is 19. Conversely there are 55 leagues showing profit of 1pt or over. Another 3 showing profit under 1pt.
Within the profitable leagues there will be those that fall away due to liquidity and volume and where profitt is minimal some will probably go down as opposed to up. There also may be a few that come back in from the excluded 19 list.
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Thought I'd use the time I have to look at a few positives and there are many:
Fair's fair, this is without excluded leagues but other than that this is the system graph. November is the first real drop.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Stuart-Capstick ok maybe I should give serious consideration as to whether I want to bet in Colombia despite current overall results.....
https://colombiaone.com/2024/02/19/allegations-corruption-match-fixing-colombia-football-soccer/
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@Stuart-Capstick thanks, that's good to hear. It could just be sods law that Nov is the first truly awful month where it makes no sense.
In fairness it's just over 12% which is nothing.
I've got a few irons in the fire now but overall keeping it nice and simple.
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Good.
I think you are on to something with this one. It may be more slowburning than you would like, but it will be profitable long term IF you manage it properly.
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@Stuart-Capstick in general the only real changes that happen now are leagues being scrapped because of lack of volume/liquidity. Or sometimes they are moved to just tracking like the UK leagues.
I have a while to decide on my next move given the break.
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Either:
- Paper trade for the rest of the month. If your system is viable, then what does a few missed weeks matter?
Or
- Carry on with half stakes
Don't start tinkering. You will never know if it is a good system if you keep changing parameters every 25 pieces of data.
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At least vindicated leaving the Uruguayan tonight.
