Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

Right, her we go!!!

I'm not hiding anywhere.....it has been a dreadful month and pushed m back under break even for the first time in months!

But I'm 100% confident I have the data to turn it around. More than I would have been in the past!!

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All my screw ups are on there @John Folan :loudly_crying_face: :face_with_tears_of_joy:

Richard Latimer

Todays Lay Under 1.5 and then I'm going to do my full update!

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Richard Latimer

@Lee-woodman had a lie in as no one and nothing to get up for today. Not even a dog!!

I really believe the overs system is almost the finished article. That's not to say October hasn't been a little disapointing and shown a few cracks where I've been able to look at what's happening and make what I see are logical changes.

That's the key difference to before, I'm sticking it out, making 'only logical tweaks' which have proven to be sensible over the last 6 months, and pushing on.

The unders is something I've been thinking about for a while and developing in the background using similar thinking to the overs which has helped move it along somewhat.

Only 3 months in so yes I'm cautious but it is the next logical step for me to increase revenue when the overs is complete rather than open the overs out into less strict criteria.

Richard Latimer

@lee-woodman said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

@richard-latimer said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

Unless anything bad happens in the last few days of Oct I think I'm going to trial my under 3.5 system starting Nov which is producing consistent results at some pretty good prices.

Consistent over what period? It looks to me like you are struggling again with your current system and getting a little emotional about it and considering switching. I think you like the strategies with a high strike rate (dont we all) but cant accept any downturn, as a few losers means a fairly hefty loss. Maybe you need to remove the ego and need for constant winners and aim for a better risk/reward ratio by going for something closer to evens. I think if you had a lot of data, and therefore confidence, then the way you do things now would be ok

To put in comparison, and i do not call myself established by any stretch, but my main SH goal strategy has nearly 4000 results stretching back just over 2 years. I have started to get consistent over the last 4-5 months with this but this month was a terrible start and i ended up down quite a bit (maximum liability is 3 points per trade, laying at 2.5-4.0) but i was able to study the data (it appeared to be mainly bad variance along with a couple of bad leagues) and push on with confidence. Now i am still slightly down for the month but ive slowly clawed back 75% of the losses just by slowly continuing what i was doing before whereas i think you panic and start to see gold elsewhere

Damnit, I was just writing more and lost it all! Will reply further in a bit!

Richard Latimer

@lee-woodman said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

@richard-latimer said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

Unless anything bad happens in the last few days of Oct I think I'm going to trial my under 3.5 system starting Nov which is producing consistent results at some pretty good prices.

Consistent over what period? It looks to me like you are struggling again with your current system and getting a little emotional about it and considering switching. I think you like the strategies with a high strike rate (dont we all) but cant accept any downturn, as a few losers means a fairly hefty loss. Maybe you need to remove the ego and need for constant winners and aim for a better risk/reward ratio by going for something closer to evens. I think if you had a lot of data, and therefore confidence, then the way you do things now would be ok

To put in comparison, and i do not call myself established by any stretch, but my main SH goal strategy has nearly 4000 results stretching back just over 2 years. I have started to get consistent over the last 4-5 months with this but this month was a terrible start and i ended up down quite a bit (maximum liability is 3 points per trade, laying at 2.5-4.0) but i was able to study the data (it appeared to be mainly bad variance along with a couple of bad leagues) and push on with confidence. Now i am still slightly down for the month but ive slowly clawed back 75% of the losses just by slowly continuing what i was doing before whereas i think you panic and start to see gold elsewhere

I'm not switching, I can assure you. I have put way too many hours into this and I really feel it is almost the finished product.

? Offline

@richard-latimer said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

Unless anything bad happens in the last few days of Oct I think I'm going to trial my under 3.5 system starting Nov which is producing consistent results at some pretty good prices.

Consistent over what period? It looks to me like you are struggling again with your current system and getting a little emotional about it and considering switching. I think you like the strategies with a high strike rate (dont we all) but cant accept any downturn, as a few losers means a fairly hefty loss. Maybe you need to remove the ego and need for constant winners and aim for a better risk/reward ratio by going for something closer to evens. I think if you had a lot of data, and therefore confidence, then the way you do things now would be ok

To put in comparison, and i do not call myself established by any stretch, but my main SH goal strategy has nearly 4000 results stretching back just over 2 years. I have started to get consistent over the last 4-5 months with this but this month was a terrible start and i ended up down quite a bit (maximum liability is 3 points per trade, laying at 2.5-4.0) but i was able to study the data (it appeared to be mainly bad variance along with a couple of bad leagues) and push on with confidence. Now i am still slightly down for the month but ive slowly clawed back 75% of the losses just by slowly continuing what i was doing before whereas i think you panic and start to see gold elsewhere

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

Lay Under 1.5 Helsingor

Got a lot of free time this evening. May try and post my depressing update

It's even more depressing now. What a month!!

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5 Helsingor

Got a lot of free time this evening. May try and post my depressing update

Richard Latimer

Full list:

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Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5 Kasimpasa

Richard Latimer

Unless anything bad happens in the last few days of Oct I think I'm going to trial my under 3.5 system starting Nov which is producing consistent results at some pretty good prices.

Richard Latimer

I am not the finished product yet but I am so much better than I used last to be. Ummed and ahhhed for ages over Sint Truidence on same basis as Nurnberg.

Decided against.

0-0.

Seeing you avoided another big loss is as good if not better than recording a single win!!

Richard Latimer

@john-folan said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

@richard-latimer said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Aug 22 = £481.58 - August profit = £68.41:

Full list of todays Lay Under 1.5's omitting Nurnberg which was stoopid!

So not recording losing trades? Makes the spreadsheet look better I guess. Own your screw ups!! Its the only way you will learn.