Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
-
Just updating everything at the moment but while I do that the high odds loss in UAE has been bothering me. Not because it was a mistake. It wasn't.
However going through the selections now it appears that since Feb (so almost an entire year) I have 4 selections from the UAE in the high price bracket. One of those has now lost so for the whole year....red.
I'm not exactly sure where this ends. Maybe the sizeable enough profit from high odds games disappears one by one or maybe it just weeds out some leagues at higher odds over time. Either way, I can't really see any massive cons to excluding high odds in UAE from here on so that's what I'm doing.
-
@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
Lay Under 1.5 (German game must be max 6.6 lay price 5 mins before kick off as per oddsportal).
EDIT: Max 6.8....last time I looked it was just about a qualifier.
2/2
-
@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
Home lay if the price climbs past 1.9
1-3 so a win. I laid @ 2.06 having just missed kick off.
-
Lay Under 1.5 (German game must be max 6.6 lay price 5 mins before kick off as per oddsportal).
EDIT: Max 6.8....last time I looked it was just about a qualifier.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Home lay if the price climbs past 1.9
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer those are some thin odds on the over 1.5, wishing you good luck with it.
-
And the over 1.5...
Despite it not exactly taking off into orbit this one is kind of doing exactly what it should, just a bit slower than one hoped.
Start with a loss.
8 winning trades to counter the loss and more.
Then another loss.
Another 8 winning trades would be superb please (7 after today)I should also add that I only had 6 winning trades as one of the missed was in German Bundesliga before I tweaked that. The other was Guimareas.
There was one more in India but need more data there.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
A very poor start to the home lays. Here's hoping for immediate improvement:
-
Nothing even potentially until Fri morning now.
-
Disappointing day and yet still, the bank being split into 2 pots makes it way less so.
Newcastle went over 1.5 easily.
And the Costa Rican game minimised the damage on home lays.
Full update to follow.
-
Just watched highlights. Oh my days. That goalkeeper for Al Ain....
-
Well the run in the UAE had to end at some point. But why did it have to end at odds of 8.8???
-
@Martin Only leagues I don't track are when liquidity and volume become too low. Then I'll wipe them from sheet and delete from filter like I did with Wales last night despite the wins.
Exception to that was Estonia where I got in a tiz and deleted from home lays sheet and filter after a very poor loss
-
@Richard-Latimer do you still track them once removed or is that untracked?
-
Chance to go again on Germany so soon in the over 1.5 but odds look a little high considering I'm only going up to 6.8 there now:
-
Home lays:
-
Now I'm actively trading the over 1.5 it will be time to start weeding out leagues I can't actually use in practice I guess.
-
I don't regret my decision on Germany. It's just sods law.
Win or lose, I don't like the liquidity and volume in Wales so after tonight I'll be removing this league. Doesn't make up for what looks to be a costly mistake though.
Now looking like nothing to regret tonight. Wales is still gone though. Not a league I can upscale in the slightest.
-
@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
On my radar this morning is Perth lay. It's in the probably going to be wear I consider an official selection after the game although certainly an outlier.
Perth win stats are awful.
With the overs starting well if slowly and there being 2 banks I feel now is the time for a few risks on the home lays.
Laying Perth. Starts soon.
So that ended in my favour. 1-2.
On this basis I have to go with another home lay for this evening. Wales is currently just in the red but with only one loss from 4 trades. It is however a qualifier and everything points to the home team failing to win.
Laying Barry.
